Forex Trading Blog

DailyFX Forex Radio - Bernanke's Forecast For A Recession Weighs Dollar, Overshadows Dour UK Housing Data

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 22:13:39 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM040208.mp3
Key Points

· Bernanke testimony calls for rising unemployment, deeper housing slump and a recession; are market forecasts of a 25bp cut reasonable?

· UK housing market crumbles as mortage approvals, construction activity and equity withdrawals plunge.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Finds Relief From Risk Trends, Bernanke Testimony May Feed Rate Speculation

DailyFX Radio — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 21:57:31 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM040108.mp3
Key Points

· Dollar boosted as headlines show that the dollar isn’t shouldering the financial crisis alone.

· A lull in event risk Wednesday will highlight Bernanke’s views on the US economy and focus speculation heading into Friday NFPs.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

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DailyFX Forex Radio - No End Yet In Sight To Credit Crunch, RBA Decision And US ISM Promise Action

DailyFX Radio — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 23:00:39 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM033108.mp3
Key Points

· ECB finds support for hawkish policy stance in highest CPI reading in 16-years.

· ISM Manufacturing report offers dollar traders their first taste of top market moving event riskk this week.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

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Start at the top and work your way down.

Tom Long — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 16:37:02 +0000

One of the important points we teach in the FXCM Power Courses is to trade in the direction of the trend on the daily chart. We recommend only trading the strongest trends as that is where you are likely to find the best trading opportunities. After having identified a strong trend on the daily chart, we then recommend moving down to an hourly or 4-hour chart to find your entry and exit, but only in the direction of the daily trend. Too often though, new traders lose their way and start with the short-term charts to find a trade and then move up to the daily chart to justify their choice. But this approach is not as effective as starting with the daily charts to find the strongest trends. These new traders want action and seem to be able to squeeze a trade out of the market even if there are few solid opportunities. This of course lowers the win percentage and profitability of your approach. We must start with the daily chart first and stick with the most obvious trends. Then if you move down to the intraday charts of those strongest trending markets and no trades are setting up, you must exercise discipline and patience to stay out of the market and not force a trade. Being okay with staying out of the market is key to long-term success. The idea is to trade the strongest setups instead of always being in a trade. So make sure your goals are prioritized to increase your chance of success and only trade when you have the best chance of winning.

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Data Puts Pound Strength In Question, Fed Chatter Holds The Dollar

DailyFX Radio — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 22:24:21 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM032708.mp3
Key Points

· Scheduled data disappoints pound though news the largest mortgage lender is boosting rates was the real concern.

· Japanese docket lined with top tier but imponent indicators, German CPI a policy guide though lacking a release time.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Data Weighs On Dollar, IFO And Trichet Boost The Euro

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 22:35:27 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM032608.mp3
Key Points

· Dollar back on the chopping block with disappointing housing and business spending data.

· Euro rallies back to 1.58 as data and ECB President Trichet confirm the Euro-Zone’s strength.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Loses Its Risk Appeal As Data Draws A US Closer

DailyFX Radio — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 22:05:56 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM032508.mp3

Key Points

· Dollar can’t hold its risk correlation with consumer confidence and housing data souring?

· Economic docket holds event risk for Dollar, Euro and Kiwi tomorrow.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

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Take a step back to see the big picture.

Tom Long — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 16:46:22 +0000

One issue I see with many new traders is that they use the shortest time frame charts to make their trading decisions. It is typical to see new traders use a 1-minute or 5-minute chart because they think that their risk is lower. Since they risk less on each trade, they must be better off. The problem is that these trades found on these charts usually result in more risk as you can have many losing trades in a row because of the volatility on those charts. In our FX Power Courses we recommend trading off of the hourly or 4-hour chart in the direction of the trend as seen on the daily chart. This way you are trading with the momentum of the market and are able to be in on some of the bigger moves that these markets are known for. Those big spikes on the 5-minute chart are easily explained on the longer-term charts as they usually are within a bigger move. So start with the daily chart to identify the direction of the trend and then move down to the hourly or 4-hour chart to find your trade. If the trend is up, then only look for buys and if the trend is down, then only look for sells. This does keep your risk acceptable and the potential profit big enough to cover those losing trades.

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Ends The Week Higher On Risk Aversion, Can Fundamentals Carry The Rebound?

DailyFX Radio — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 21:52:03 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM032108.mp3

Key Points

· Dollar ends the week with major rebounds against major counterparts, will data sustain the rally?

· Holiday liquidity quickly neutralizes the market, but risk could quickly revive volatility next week.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio: Market Squares Dollar Shorts, Loonie And Pound Top Market Movers For The Day

DailyFX Radio — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 22:15:39 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM032008.mp3

Key Points

· Traders square their books before the holiday weekend, giving the dollar a boost despite sour data.

· Fundamentals lead traders to reconsider UK and Canadian growth forecasts.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio: Risk Aversion Rises Across The Markets, Pound Set With Top Market Moving Event Risk

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 22:33:04 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031908.mp3

Key Points

· A rebound in risk aversion offers the dollar a temporary boost.

· Scheduled UK event risk promises another active session for the sterling Thursday.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Fed Delivers As Expected, Dollar Posts Steady Recover After 75bp Cut

DailyFX Radio — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:27:24 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031808.mp3

Key Points

· Fed delivers a 75bp cut as expected, market still skeptical over its effect on credit markets and US growth.

· Markets still prone to risk with BoE minutes on deck.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio: Can A 100bp Fed Cut Save The Markets?

DailyFX Radio — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 22:20:15 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031708.mp3

Key Points

· Financial markets on the brink, traders and economists look to the Fed for help.

· How will the dollar react to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Another Liquidity Crises Roils The Markets Raising Forecasts For A 100bp Fed Rate Cut

DailyFX Radio — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 22:48:54 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031408.mp3
Key Points

· Bear Stearns near collapse scares markets, leaves traders expecting a 100bp rate cut.

· USDCHF drops below parity and USDJPY breaks 100, will there be intervention?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Traders See US Recession Even If President Bush Doesn’t, Will The BoJ Intervene?

DailyFX Radio — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 22:07:01 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031308.mp3

Key Points

· US consumer spending drops; there are few string holding the economy up.

· USDJPY drops to 100 On risk aversion, will the BoJ intervene this time around?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Fades As Fed Liquidity Shot Not Seen Helping Dollar, Has Aussie Strength Been Overestimated?

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 22:25:39 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031208.mp3

Key Points

· Dollar tumbles to new record lows as traders believe Fed’s help won’t prevent a 75bp rate cut.

· Australian consumer confidence falters, employment reading up next. Can this high yielder sustain its hawkish outlook?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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How is your trading?

Tom Long — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 19:55:17 +0000

Quick….how many of your trades in the last 10 have been winners? What was your average gain and your average loss? How long does your typical trade last? Did you use the same approach on all of those 10 trades? These are some of the questions you need to able to answer in order to move up to the next level of trading. Analyzing your past trades is as important as thinking about your next trade. Most new traders want to ignore the losing trades and not even look at them again, but you must in order to improve. If you won five of the last 10 trades, but were not profitable in the series, you need to lower your risk or look for more profit. If you used a couple of different strategies to find your entry and one was particularly profitable, you should do more testing with that strategy. But you cannot know these answers unless you keep track of what it is you are doing. Many successful traders keep a log of their trades and also note what they were thinking at the time. This way they can go back after a series of trades and see what worked and what didn’t work. Professionals have a good idea of what works for them since they have probably been doing the same thing for awhile, but do you? Try keeping a log and record as much information as you can about each trade including: date, time, entry, stop, profit target, exit, results, and any other piece of information you might find interesting. You should also write down why you entered into the trade and why you exited. This kind of information can take some time to write, but may be some of the most valuable information about how to improve your trading as you will ever read.

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Risk Aversion Leaves The Dollar-Backed Majors Mixed, US Trade Balance Next Dollar Hurdle

DailyFX Radio — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 22:09:24 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM031008.mp3

Key Points

· Dollar sees a modest rebound as fundamental winds still light.

· Aussie and Kiwi yield appeal losing out to broad risk aversion.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - New Lows For the US Dollar As NFPs Approach, Steady ECB And BoE Rates Now Bullish

DailyFX Radio — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 23:27:02 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM030608.mp3

Key Points

· Dollar battered to new lows, Friday’s NFPs not expected to help the situation.

· In a market of falling interest rates, the ECB’s and BoE’s decisions to hold rates trigger a bullish run.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Tests New Record Lows, Market Looking Ahead To ECB And BoE Rate Decisions

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:18:22 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM030508.mp3
Key Points

· Euro boasts another record high against the battered dollar.

· Will the BoE and ECB rate decisions deliver any market-moving surprises?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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Heads I win….and tails I win too.

Tom Long — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 21:24:58 +0000

Because I get to work with new traders in our FX Power Courses, I get a pretty good idea of why new traders lose money. One of the reasons is that these traders do not have an idea of what they want to achieve. Sure, everybody wants to make money, but we need to have realistic expectations to get to that level. I like to compare trading to flipping a coin. If I paid you $1 every time the coin landed on tails and you paid me $1 every time the coin landed on heads. We could flip all day and night and most likely break even after every 100 flips. So how is this information useful to a trader? I like to recommend to new traders that they think in terms of winning half of their trades. If you trade with the trend and only take solid setups, this can be done. But that is only half of the battle. If we win $1 when we are right and lose $1 when we are wrong, how can we make money? The answer is that we either have to win more often or win more when we are right. The idea then is to not win $1 when we are right, but to win $2 and still only lose $1 when we are wrong. That is our 1:2 risk:reward ratio we talk about in trading. If you are risking 50 pips on the trade, you should look for twice that in profit, which is 100 pips. Now we can look at that coin toss differently. If I paid you $1 every time the coin landed on tails, but you had to pay me $2 every time the coin landed on heads, I would want to flip that coin 24 hours a day for the rest of my life. Even if I lost five flips in a row, I would still want to bet on that next flip because I know that after a series of 100 flips, I would still win about half and lose about half of the time. So no matter what happens on the next flip, I would consider myself a winner because after a series of flips, I would most likely be profitable. Heads I win…and tails I win too.

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Bernanke, Fisher Try To Provide The Dollar Support, The Global Calendar Tallies To Rate Changes

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 00:27:16 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM030408.mp3

Key Points

· Mixed Fed commentary leaves the dollar lacking direction.

· RBA Hikes 25 bps, BoC Cuts 50 bps, what is the RBNZ expected to do?

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Tumbles As Market Forecasting 75bp Fed Cut, RBA And BoC Decisions Up Next

DailyFX Radio — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 23:37:47 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM030308.mp3

Key Points

· US factory activity and construction spending plunge, Fed Funds pricing in a 75 bp rate cut this month.

· Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada set to change their benchmark rates over the coming 12 hours.

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Euro Surges to Record Highs on Divergent Fed and ECB Rhetoric , What Happens Next?

DailyFX Radio — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 00:02:47 +0000

Listen to our Evening DailyFX Forex Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM022708.mp3

Key Points

· Federal Reserve rhetoric sends the euro to record-highs against the US dollar

· Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signals further US rate cuts in the pipeline

Tell us what you think of our podcast and send us an e-mail at research@dailyfx.com

To chat with us and other traders about currency trading, visit our very popular Forex Forum

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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DailyFX Forex Radio - Euro Hits Fresh Record High; Will Bernanke Revive the Dollar or Drive It Lower?

DailyFX Radio — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:54:15 +0000

Click Link to Listen to our Morning DailyFX Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioAM022708.mp3

Fundamental Headlines

• GBPUSD – U.K. GDP rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007, which was the slowest pace in more than a year. Growth was weighed down by slower consumer spending which printed at 0.2% percent, a third of the 0.6% forecasted. Tight credit markets and a housing downturn are pulling down the economy and recent BoE rate cuts may not be enough to soften the fall. However, the BoE is reluctant to cut further as record energy prices are stoking inflation concerns. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.

• EURUSD – German import prices increased more than expected in January printing 0.8% versus an expected 0.3%, pushing the year-over year rate to 5.2%-the highest since August 2006. The increase is not entirely surprising as rising oil prices have inflated costs worldwide. In a separate report the GfK consumer confidence survey unexpectedly held steady as income expectations improved., but economic outlook and willingness to buy declined. The overall news will not comfort the ECB as inflationary pressures are increasing and preventing them from cutting rates in the near term. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.

Podcast by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst, DailyFX.com, tbelkas@dailyfx.com

Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes

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Get in while the getting is good.

Tom Long — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 20:44:50 +0000

In our FX Power Courses, we always ask new traders to tell us about any potential trades they see setting up in the market. An example would be when a currency pair, being in a strong uptrend, pulls back down to a good support level, offering a solid buying opportunity. But too often when this happens, new traders will say that they want “to see what happens next” instead of jumping into the trade. Naturally, we ask new traders to place these trades in a demo account, so this hesitation is not about risk. This is about new traders who have little confidence in their trading approach. But practicing is about identifying a good trading opportunity and aggressively getting into that trade when the setup is complete. Don’t worry about how the trade will play out, as we are practicing how to trade, not how to be a spectator. As the market pulls back to a support level, it is offering us a good place to buy and to keep our risk reasonable. Since we would be placing our initial protective stop below that support level, the closer we buy to support, the closer our stop is to our entry price which means less risk. So we want to buy as the market is testing that level instead of hesitating. If the market rallies off of that support as you suspected and then you decide to get into the trade, your risk will be larger. So practice identifying a trading opportunity and then get into that trade as it sets up. Waiting to see what happens next is much more educational when you have a trade open, even a practice trade. So don’t hesitate getting in when the getting is good.

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