Trading EUR / AUD - Flat
By Eliseo Agas | November 8, 2007
Following up on yesterday’s EUR/AUD long idea, I decided to get flat early this morning at the 1.5815 area.
For the same reasons I should have gotten out of my NZD/JPY trade the other night instead of holding, I didn’t feel comfortable with the weakness showing on the 4-hour chart early this morning. Overnight price action basically flat-lined…not what I would ideally expect to see real buying momentum had carried over from the previous session. Again, my entire approach hinges on momentum and follow through in the near-term…not where will it be days or weeks from now. In that vein, of course it’s possible to see this pair higher based on the current technicals. But I’m not in the business of sticking around in a trade that long to find out…too much event risk exposure that I’m unwilling to deal with.
I’m happy to take the money off the table this time around.
Tags: AUD, Aussie, EUR, Euro, forex charts, forex trading
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Trading EUR / AUD - Sellers Stopped Cold?
By Eliseo Agas | November 7, 2007
Check out the EUR/AUD Daily. We have a rough double bottom indicating that sellers may have finished their onslaught…for now.
The 4-hour chart shows buyers powering up. This is as good as any a point to test the waters with a small probing trade. If we see a break above 1.5740 bid I’ll fee a lot more confident that sellers have probably stepped away.
If on the other hand price action breaks below 1.5495 bid then I’m out.
Tags: AUD, Aussie, EUR, Euro, forex charts, forex trading
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EUR / AUD - I’m Not Blaming “Them”
By Eliseo Agas | October 25, 2007
Looks like my timing with EUR/AUD was still a bit early relative to the continued lukewarm selling that ensued since I posted on this idea. This was a possibility I accounted for, which is why I only went in with a probing trade as discussed in my previous post.
As of right now, I still believe that a long potential may exist relative to the price action on the Daily chart. It’s running right into the area of congestion I pointed out in my previous post. I still believe that near-term this area of congestion is acting as supoprt so until it’s clearly violated to the downside I won’t necessarily be changing my stance just yet. What I’m doing now is hanging back and watching for another opportunity to time my entry. If on the other hand the pair breaks definitively below the 1.5650 area I’ll stop being a Bull and start to reassess what trading opportunity, if any, exists at that point.
Happy hunting.
Tags: AUD, EUR, forex charts, forex trading
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EUR / AUD - Still Selling Off?
By Eliseo Agas | October 24, 2007
Could there be slowing in the selling momentum for EUR/AUD? Check out the Daily chart and look at the support the pair ran into.
The area roughly between 1.5750 and 1.5650 is a cluster of congestion and naturally acting as support. The price action ran into it and bounced upwards (at the time of this posting). Think about the battle between buyers/sellers in this area that caused that cluster of price action to develop. Now I’m not saying that going long is a sure thing but it definitely seems worth a shot to me.
I’d throw on a small probing trade anywhere at the current level (at the time of this posting). But I wouldn’t feel completely bullish until price bids above 1.5890. If and when it gets to that point I’d probably throw on my full position size. Keep in mind, my probing trades are small trades whereby if I’m wrong on my timing and it doesn’t work out it’ll be a relatively small hit to the account. But if it works out I’ve put on a small portion of my trade at a relatively great price. It’s a form of scaling into a trade whereby I scale in, in two pieces.
The danger at this point is that it might still be too early for EUR/AUD to follow through to the upside. It could conceivably drop to retest the congestion area so set your stops accordingly. A break below 1.5760 will make this scenario more likely so buyers beware.
Tags: AUD, EUR, forex charts, forex trading
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