Trading NZD / JPY - Flat
By Eliseo Agas | November 7, 2007
I got out of my NZD/JPY long at 88.70 upon seeing a breakdown this morning in the price action via the 4-hour charts.
Though it could possibly go back up I’d rather take the money and run at this point. Unfortunately, it wasn’t necessarily the best close since I was thinking about closing it out last night before going to bed at a much higher level. There were subtle signs of weakness developing last night but I decided to hold on instead to see what the overnight action would do for me.
Nevertheless, it was a profitable trade and I’m now looking forward to the next.
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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Trading NZD / JPY - Letting It Run, Maybe
By Eliseo Agas | November 6, 2007
How much further can NZD/JPY and other Yen crosses continue going up from this point? Following up on my previous post, I’m roughly 130 PIPs in the money on my long position and holding.
The Daily and 4-hour charts are looking strong and so far the momentum is on my side (not to mention the carry). At this point there is no reason to question or second-guess the charts although one should always be prepared for the worst. The worst being that price action can turn on a dime and run against me without abandon.
I’ll watch for any early signs of weakness on the 4-hour charts before considering getting out of this trade. Additionally, if weakness develops and continues into the close of the trading session (5 PM New York time) I’d be much more motivated to close the trade. For those who follow my posts, you know that I’m an intermediate term swing/momentum style trader (typically holding for just a few days at a time). Not allowing large amounts of unrealized gains evaporate into thin air is a critical part of the approach since the window of opportunity for my trades can quickly close without much warning.
To be continued…
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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NZD / JPY - Afraid of the Carry Unwinding?
By Eliseo Agas | November 5, 2007
If you’re not afraid of the carry unwinding near-term here is an idea with NZD/JPY…
Carry trades unwinding will probably be a drawn out process punctuated by brief violent sell-offs as it develops. Now if you feel that the carry is still acting as support and yielding good opportunity now might be a time to consider getting long. Again, this is for a shorter to intermediate term trade…holding too long could get you hurt.
Notice the Daily versus the 4-hour attached screen grabs. We have a potential subsiding in selling interest the past couple of days developing. The Daily chart is in the middle of contracting volatility but still in a modest upward direction. I’d say any break below 86.65 would invalidate this idea since it would indicate that our timing is off or that the bears are much stronger then anticipated.
Let’s see what happens!
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
Topics: Better Use Charts - Use Charts Better | No Comments »