Fundamentals Do Matter!
By Mike Conlon | March 10, 2010
Now that the fears of global collapse have abated—for now—the markets have returned to heavier scrutiny on the fundamental numbers being reported in various countries. It is times like these that remind traders that indeed the fundamentals do matter. The longer the global economy can sustain itself without Armageddon taking place, the more and more traders will focus on specific stories and not overall risk themes.
So, while one might look at this morning’s action and be inclined to say that today is risk-taking because commodity currencies are higher, a more appropriate reaction would be that are actually both good and bad stories out there which are driving individual currency pairs.
More specifically, in currencies:
Aussie (AUD): One of the good economic stories out there is coming out of Australia which has had good gains as of late. Tomorrow they will be reporting their employment figures, which are expected to gain for the sixth straight month. In fact, the economy is buzzing along so well there that there is no an expectation that they may raise the benchmark interest rate again next month. The Aussie is in a clear uptrend and I expect it to test 2010 highs very soon.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also another good economic story, though not as strong as the Aussie. While the interest rate decision due out tomorrow is expected to be unchanged, overall Asian recovery will benefit the Kiwi. The most important take-away from the rate decision will be the language used to give a clue as to a timeframe for further hikes. And should they surprise the market with a rate hike (highly unlikely), then lookout above!
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is just kind of hanging out today, with no real news on tap in Canada. Oil is higher so the Loonie is up; and also riding the coattails of the Aussie and Kiwi. The only anomaly is USD/CAD, as there is dollar strength this morning.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning. On the one hand, now that the risk of a Greek default is mitigated, the focus is back on the fundamentals in the Euro zone. On the other, news out of Germany is that German exports are down, but German CPI is up. Traders are using this opportunity to cover some EUR/USD shorts, but otherwise the Euro is down vs. the commodities and up vs. the rest. I expect EUR/USD to be range-bound for a bit.
Pound (GBP): Another tough day for the Pound, which would be down across the board if not for the Yen. The Industrial production figures and manufacturing came in negative, marking the first decline since last August. This is likely to keep rates low in the UK for an extended period. Meanwhile, the BOE’s Adam Posen stated that he hopes their bond purchase plan “has done it” with regard to stimulating the economy but he didn’t rule out further quantitative easing.
Dollar (USD): There’s a bit of optimism about the dollar this morning as economic recovery appears to be going faster in the US than in Europe and Japan. As risk of a global collapse is lessening, traders are looking more toward the fundamentals. So the expectation is that we may see a rate hike in the US sooner than in Europe or Japan. However, don’t be surprised to see Dollar weakness should commodity inflation pick up.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is down across the board this morning in advance of the Japanese GDP report due out tomorrow as fears of deflation are warranted. Combine this with good news from the commodity currencies, higher commodity prices, and “risk-taking” and you have a recipe for Yen weakness. Carry traders are gaining more confidence and the Yen is the funding currency of choice.
As you can see, when global economic conditions become more stable, market fundamentals return to center-stage. Under “normal” conditions, currencies from the best economies will flourish, while those not doing as well will be sold.
And that’s the basic idea behind forex trading; that you want to own the strong currencies and sell the weak ones, hopefully picking up interest along the way!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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France to the Rescue?
By Mike Conlon | March 8, 2010
Bet you never thought you’d hear that unless it was the punch-line to some joke. All kidding aside, this past weekend French President Sarkozy gave Greece his support and claimed that if Greece was allowed to fail, then the Euro would be “pointless”.
I’m not sure how this is going to sit with Germany, who I’m sure don’t appreciate France undermining its stance. For all the talk of Greece leaving the Euro zone, what if Germany was the one to up and go? I don’t see this as a likely scenario and see this as more of “good cop, bad cop” tag-team effort to keep the Euro from losing further value. At the end of the day, German banks have huge exposure to Greece so it is definitely not in their interests to see Greece fail. As of right now, for all the fear of monetary bailouts, the only thing on the table right now is allowing Greece to piggy-back on the good credit of Germany. Meanwhile the EU is working to create a lender of last resort and limit credit default swaps to help prevent another potential catastrophe.
This is a pretty light week for news, which usually puts me on edge to “expect the unexpected”. Barring any unexpected negative news, I expect to see a continuation of last Friday’s market action as moderate risk-taking should have the upper hand.
In the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): There is no real news for the Aussie this week until Thursday, when they report their unemployment figures. Right now the Aussie is still the dominant currency and destination for carry trades. We’ll get a better idea of how the Aussie is going to fare going into Thursday but for now I expect the Aussie to move higher on risk-taking themes and commodity prices. The Aussie should hold short-term support at .91 vs. USD.
Kiwi (NZD): The big news of the week for New Zealand is the interest rate decision due out on Wednesday. The Kiwi is higher this morning as home prices have advanced for the fifth straight month in what some traders may feel is the onset of inflation. Personally, I don’t see a rate hike coming at this meeting so we’ll have to see how the market reacts but for now I expect the Kiwi to trade higher into the meeting on expectations of a rate hike and moderate risk-taking with the potential for those gains to be erased if the hike doesn’t happen. Stay tuned.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie continues to “receive love” from the market as more and more people are starting to catch on to the economic story in Canada. A report out this weekend claimed that the Loonie to could surpass the Aussie as the majority of options bets placed on the Aussie/Loonie pair are for the Loonie to strengthen. While the Loonie may do better in the short-run as traders begin to expect a series of rate hikes, don’t lose sight of the impact of the interest rate differentials, as the Aussie is currently yielding 4% and the Loonie is yielding .25%.
Euro (EUR): As mentioned the Euro got a boost from Sarkozy’s comments this weekend, but is trading marginally lower than the commodity currencies. Financial stability is the name of the game for the Euro and I expect it to trade sideways for a while as the drama unfolds. This is not the final word on Greece so I expect we’ll see it trade range-bound between 1.345 and 1.38 vs. USD depending on the “he said, she said” between Merkel and Sarkozy. Not to mention German CPI, which is due out on Wednesday.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is down against all but the Dollar and Yen, as mild-risk taking is the flavor of the morning. On Wednesday we’re going to get the estimate of Feb. GDP and the Industrial production and manufacturing figures. Should those numbers come in weaker than expected than we could see the Pound re-test last week’s lows.
Dollar (USD): The major thing to look at this week is going to be Friday’s retail sales figures. This is going to give a clue as to the behavior of the US Consumer, and well as the confidence figure due out the same day. The US consumer represents some 70% of GDP so if these numbers are better than expected than it could compel further risk-taking and dollar weakness. Leading up to those numbers, we have a couple of Fed speakers out to entertain us with their jaw-boning of the dollar. Remember, forget what they say, and watch what they do!
Yen (JPY): Japanese GDP is due out on Wednesday but frankly, the Yen is going to trade on risk themes this week. Still considered the top funding currency for carry trades, I can’t foresee a situation that would cause this to change barring an interest rate hike which is unthinkable.
So, for a week with surprisingly little news, it seems kind of busy. Watch out for the British GDP figures on Wednesday to be a key point, and this could be the week when the Loonie jumps the Kiwi on the risk scale.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Employment Gains!
By Mike Conlon | March 5, 2010
In a scene out of the movie, Trading Places, all eyes were on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report this morning. In today’s version of the Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice crop report, the number game in at -36K jobs lost, vs. an expectation of -65K. The unemployment rate also held steady at 9.7%. So what does this mean for the market today? Well right now there is so much market volatility that it’s hard to get a good read.
This should be positive for risk-taking today as the number was just good enough to show economic progress, but not great enough to bring about talk of US interest rate hikes. However, anything can happen on NFP day so traders need to be on their toes! Just take a look at any chart at 8:30EST to see what I mean.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): No real news for the Aussie today as it is higher on risk themes and had a nice pop on the NFP report.
Kiwi (NZD): Same deal for the Kiwi as the Aussie, though it’s bouncing much higher as it has been a bit over-sold the last few days. Between Kiwi strength and Yen weakness, that pair is the largest gainer, up 2.18%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher, as the market has decided that risk-taking is the flavor of the day as the market digests the impact of the NFP report. Oil is also higher to just over 81, adding to Loonie gains.
Euro (EUR): What more can be said about the Euro at this point? The Greek crisis is center-stage, with Greek austerity measures angering its citizens, and the potential bailout and contingency plans upsetting the Germans. Quite the balancing act going on there. The Euro is down against all but the Yen.
Pound (GBP): Producer prices came in higher in the UK, and commodity prices are suggesting that they may be experiencing the start of inflation. The increase of 4.1% came in higher than the target rate of 3%, so it will be interesting to see how the BOE handles this situation. The Pound is mixed this morning.
Dollar (USD): I discussed the NFP report above but whether or not the risk-taking theme that has been pushed forward by the forex market continues will remain to be seen. Stocks are expected to see an initial bounce as the futures are higher. However, there is no improvement in the unemployment rate, so market bears may use this opportunity to establish shorts on signs that the economy may be stabilizing but is not improving.
Yen (JPY): The yen is weaker for the second day in a row as it appears as though the market believes the Bank of Japan will boost credit easing. So it appears as though the government may be winning the battle against the Bank of Japan which should weaken the Yen and make it even more attractive as the funding currency of choice for carry traders. It is down across the board this morning.
So while it appears that the market is in a risk-taking mood so far, don’t be so certain that it won’t change its tune by the end of the day. At some point, we are going to have to see actual good news, and not more “less bad”. Unemployment is still extraordinarily high, which will translate over to reduced consumer spending, which makes up some 70% of US GDP.
In my opinion, it would be a fool’s folly to continue to buy stocks and commodities on interest rate policies alone and not fundamentals. At some point this will catch up to the market. It always does.
Good weekend to all!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
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Australia Hikes!
By Mike Conlon | March 2, 2010
Aussie Rate Hike, Canada to Follow?
As expected, the RBA raised interest rates today .25% to 4%, as the economy there has been humming along. More hikes are expected throughout the year. Later this morning, the Canadian interest rate decision is due out. And while it is not expected that the rate will change, the Bank of Canada may provide clues as to when this may happen.
That’s the good. As for the bad, there’s no shortage of negative news coming out of the Euro zone and the UK. Potential political gridlock in the UK and the Greek debacle are weighing heavily on the Pound and the Euro. Commodities are also higher in what can be deemed mild risk-taking.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher this morning as the RBA did the expected and raised rates to 4% as economic recovery is more advanced than anywhere else on the planet. Having just reported a surge in business confidence and explosive jobs growth, there could be up to another 1% in rate hikes as the year moves forward, depending upon whether or not inflation picks up. As of right now, inflation appears to be within the targeted range, which could suggest a slowing of rate increases which is dovish. This is why the Aussie is showing modest gains today and not explosive ones.
Kiwi (NZD): Surprisingly, the Kiwi is down this morning as there are dovish outlooks on economic recovery and inflation appears to be muted. So while Australia is raising rates; New Zealand could be at a standstill for some time.
Loonie (CAD): The Bank of Canada rate decision is due out later this morning and though the market is predicting no change, there may be some language hinting of future rate hikes which may come sooner than expected. Fourth quarter GDP came in at 5% vs. and expectation of 3.3%, showing much faster growth. Inflation is also very close to the target rate which could cause earlier than expected action. The Loonie is the best performer this morning, higher against all heavily traded currencies. Because the forex market is forward-looking, potential rate hikes usually trump actual ones. This is why the Loonie is higher vs. the Aussie.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning, trading lower vs. the commodity currencies but higher against the rest. Germany is putting immense pressure on Greece to cut its deficit and is basically in charge of the Greek bond offering which makes them the “holder of the purse-strings”. These austerity measures aren’t going over too well in Greece, as strikes are scheduled which usually lead to some sort of rioting. Greece has a tough pill to swallow and the citizens there don’t want to take their medicine. Stay tuned!
Pound (GBP): The political wrangling is heating up in the UK as fears that a “hung Parliament” may prevent the UK from tackling their economic deficit. With elections coming in a few months, the speculation that there will be no majority party could induce political grid-lock which will prevent anything from getting done. Does this sound familiar? It will be interesting to see the outcome of these elections, and whether the British actually vote to have the punch bowl removed from the party. The Pound is down across the board. Again.
Dollar (USD): USD is down against all but the Pound, as the big news in the US is going to be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Expect the Dollar to trade on risk themes until then.
Yen (JPY): Japanese yen is higher this morning as unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.9% and household spending increased for the sixth straight month, showing signs that domestic demand may be improving. However, yen strength is negative for exports and at this point it doesn’t seem like further expansion is in the cards. Let’s see if they decide to rein in government spending to tackle further debt, or provide quantitative easing to try to keep yen low.
As you can see, some economies are doing much better than others and those that look to decrease their debt and may be targeted lower in the short-term, but may reap the benefits in the long-term. Right now, look for the commodity currencies to lead the pack provided there is no global shock to the system.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
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Greek Comedy or Tragedy?
By Mike Conlon | February 25, 2010
Overnight, the ratings agencies added fuel to the fire in the Euro zone by claiming that further downgrades of Greek debt could be forthcoming. In addition, the market is catching on to the fact that in the UK, the debt situation is on par with that of Greece, making it vulnerable as well. Because the UK is not governed by Euro zone policy, they have been flying under the debt radar as there are no other member states to complain about their economy.
Combine this with disappointing European consumer confidence figures and rising unemployment in Germany, and you have a potentially explosive situation.
What this all adds up to is risk-aversion, which means that we’re seeing Japanese yen and US dollar strength, to go commodity currency weakness. Equity markets are lower across the globe and both gold and oil are trading lower.
In the currency market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is down this morning on risk-aversion despite the fact that business investment rose 5.5% on China demand. This bodes well for the Australian economy and has increased the chances that the RBA will hike rates again next week, marking the fourth time in 6 months they have raised. However, global risk themes are heavy today and the un-wind of carry trades has the Aussie down 2.5% vs. the Japanese yen.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is down today as well on risk even though business confidence surged to a 10-year high in February, further fueling economic recovery. Now either residents of New Zealand are completely “off their rockers” or there actually is a good growth and recovery story going on there. I’m going to go with the former. As long as the entire global financial system doesn’t collapse, I’m looking to buy Kiwi on pullbacks. It will however be a challenge to overcome global risk themes.
Loonie (CAD): Well I guess everyone’s not quite as enamored with the Loonie as I am as futures trades are indicating that the Bank of Canada may be less aggressive with its interest rate policy in light of the weakening global recovery. In addition, the Olympics end this weekend and there is usually an “economic hangover” as the stimulus provided by this one-time event is effectively removed from the Canadian economy. With oil prices lower and general risk-aversion, the Loonie is now at a two-week low. I still like the Loonie to strengthen later in the year, but we may need to deal with some global risk first. Today the Loonie buys 93.5 US cents.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is down today on German unemployment and economic sentiment, yet is higher against the commodity currencies as risk-aversion is dominating the market today. We know about Greece and I mentioned the possible downgrades above which could move them closer to default, if the Euro zone actually allows that to happen. The Euro is fast approaching 1.34 vs. USD.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning, as deficit fears and political uncertainty are shedding light on the dire economic situation in the UK. The delicate balance between reigning in spending and stunting economic growth may too much handle going into upcoming elections. The Pound is at a 9-month low to the Dollar trading at 1.5275. There was a note out yesterday that the Pound could reach parity with the Euro if economic conditions worsen.
Dollar (USD): Thank you risk-aversion is what the US dollar is saying this morning, as unemployment came in higher than expected. The durable goods numbers came in higher, which is positive for manufacturing. However, the economic picture is still not rosy here in the US. The Dollar is higher against all but the Yen.
Yen (JPY): Demand for Yen is much higher today as carry trades are un-wound due to global fears about economic recovery. The Yen has been strengthening as of late, and it will be interesting to see what the Bank of Japan does to prevent this from getting out of hand. The Japanese are no strangers to intervention in their currency; and they will not be making any moves on interest rates anytime soon. A strong yen hurts Japanese exports, which in turn will hurt economic recovery.
Stock markets are down across the globe, gold is trading at 1093 and oil to 77.75, down roughly 2.75%.
It was only a matter of time before all of the risky elements floating around the market converged and today might be that day. While there is definite fear in the marketplace, there are some growth stories out there. So be patient, and remember that in general, you want to own the currencies of strong economies, and sell those of weaker ones.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Flip Flopping on Risk!
By Mike Conlon | February 23, 2010
This morning has seen some “flip-flopping” on risk themes as the overnight session was trading on risk aversion due in part to some economic figures out of the Euro zone. However, those themes had pulled back and we actually saw some risk-taking, only to set-up for risk-aversion again! Can you say volatile?
The back and forth nature of the forex market is what traders thrive on. As of right now, we are seeing some Japanese yen strength, but not all of the risk aversion plays one might expect to see. While the Kiwi is noticeably weak, the Aussie is holding up against all but the yen. This looks like its setting up to be a back and forth day, as the market attempts to re-align itself according to risk themes. I will probably play today short-term, and wait to see what the market reaction is to the US Consumer Confidence figures due out at 10 AM EST.
While I can’t imagine that they will be “good”, one never knows how the market will react. Also to note is that the US Housing Price Index will also be out a little earlier, giving a glimpse into the whole inflation/deflation debate. Combine that with the political landscape here in the US and the malaise surrounding it; and the market could be in for a wild ride today is this could be a recipe for disaster.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is holding up surprisingly well this morning despite the general risk-aversion themes we’ve seen this morning. This is more of a case of being “less-bad” than actually good. With problems in Europe (Aussie nearing 10-year highs vs. the Euro) and the UK, investors may start catching on to the fact that owning Aussie over Euro and Pound is LESS risky regardless of what the correlations say. In my opinion, the Aussie is THE place to be for both risk-taking (commodity plays) as well as risk-aversion. Now if the market would just begin to see it. In the meantime, I will continue to buy dips.
Kiwi (NZD): While lumped in with the Aussie and Loonie as commodity currencies and known as a “risk-taking” vehicle, the Kiwi is not nearly as strong as the Aussie yet sometimes benefits from Aussie strength. Until economic conditions improve in New Zealand or rate hikes seem imminent, the Kiwi will continue to trade on risk themes as it is not strong enough on its own to “buck trends”.
Loonie (CAD): I’ve been seeing a lot more of Canada lately (probably because my wife makes me watch ice-dancing in the Olympics) but I’m starting to come around to being positive on the Loonie. Despite record low interest rates and its close ties to the US, the Canadian economy is strong and recovering much faster than the US. Because of the Loonie’s tight correlation to oil, it will continue to trade as a proxy for the commodity as the market determines whether or not recovery will drive further demand for oil. The Loonie is lower this morning.
Euro (EUR): Is anyone surprised that Business Confidence figure in Germany are down this morning? No? Me neither. In fact, this prompted German Chancellor Merkel to lash out the banks that “created the problem” for speculating in the Euro—driving it lower naturally. It looks like she’s at stage 3 (anger) in the seven stages of grief. It’s starting to look more and more like the Euro zone actually knew about the derivatives that helped Greece obfuscate its debt to the point that it was allowed to gain entry to the Euro zone. In my eyes this is akin to going to a “jackets required” restaurant jacket-less, then taking off with the loaner they give you, rather than just being denied access in the first place. Any way you slice it, the trend for the Euro is clearly down.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning as speculation abounds that the UK will continue its bond purchase program to help keep their currency lower to stimulate their economy. People forget that the UK is still an industrial power and a BOE Deputy Governor reminded the markets of that fact when he said that a “weaker currency will boost exports”. Should the current situation continue, the Pound could be near 1.50 vs. the US dollar in no time flat. This would also represent the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that technical analysts love so much.
Dollar (USD): Home prices in the US are expected to rise for the seventh straight month, though incrementally and down over 3% from the previous year. Should the figures meet the expectation, then expect risk-taking to pick up as this would be a sign that inflation is nowhere to be found and confirming that interest rates will most probably remain unchanged for a long time. Consumer confidence is out at 10AM, if anyone is confident in this environment, then they need to have their head examined!
Yen (JPY): The Yen is higher on risk-aversion this morning despite the fact that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan are in dispute over what is to be done to combat the deflation they are experiencing. Not surprisingly, government wants more liquidity to encourage inflation, and the BOJ wants fiscal discipline and reduced deficits. Sound familiar?
In overnight markets, the Nikkei was down while the Hang Seng was higher. In current trading, the European markets are lower though off of their lows. US stock futures are lower, and oil is down roughly 1.25% to 79.3, with gold following suit down to 1111 and change.
With the problems facing Europe, rampant deflation in Japan, and trouble in the UK, the markets may be re-assessing which currencies are actually “risky”. In fact, the reason why I introduce the currencies in this blog in the order that I do is based on the “hierarchy” of the risk themes. As the economic recovery picture becomes clearer, I would not be surprised to see this pecking order change in the not-so-distant future.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Fed Surprise!
By Mike Conlon | February 19, 2010
Just when you thought the markets were starting to calm down and that the news out of the Euro zone was beginning to fade, the US Fed dropped a bombshell on world markets last night at 4:30 PM EST, just after the US stock market closed. The Fed announced to everyone’s surprise that they would be raising the rate at the Fed discount window 25bp to .75%, effectively charging banks more for Fed borrowing.
The markets immediate reaction was to buy dollars and cover dollar shorts, and stock futures tanked. Asian equity markets were down big last night and Europe looks to be bouncing back from earlier lows.
This move was the dominant theme in the overnight market, as retail sales figures in the UK and Canada are taking a back seat, as is the US CPI report which came in less than expected showing that inflation may still be at bay.
The two major things to take away from this move are: 1) the Fed is stressing that this move is not to tighten credit on consumers and businesses, but is merely trying to remove some over the overly-accommodative measures they have taken, and 2) investors need to be wary of the fact that the Fed may continue with these “sneaky” off-hours moves to try to avoid inter-day market Armageddon. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this move once trading begins today.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is down this morning as it is the currency that is most likely to be affected by this move, all other factors being equal. While I wouldn’t classify today as a risk-taking or aversion day, this is the third day in a row that the Aussie is down against USD.
Kiwi (NZD): Like the Aussie, the Kiwi is down 3 in a row. In addition to being affected by the discount rate hike, New Zealand has just reported the widest budget cash deficit in almost 9 years on lower tax receipts and increased government spending.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower this morning on lower commodity prices and the US discount rate hike. Also, Canadian retail sales figures came in slightly less than expected, but were at least positive. This could be a sign that economic growth is not as strong as investors may think, and everyone is anticipating the inevitable “Olympic Hangover” as the one-time economic windfall goes away.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is at nine-month low to the Dollar after the discount rate hike in addition to all of the problems coming from the Euro zone. Now speculation is heating up that perhaps Italy used the same sort of derivative maneuver to conceal debt that allowed them to enter the EU as well as Greece. There’s a lot of tension and in-fighting right now among EU members. This could put further pressure on the Euro in weeks to come.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is also at a nine-month low to the Dollar as fiscal concerns continue that the UK may need to continue accommodative measure to revive their economy. Retail sales figures came in at a disappointing -1.2% vs. and expectation of -.5%, showing further economic weakness.
Dollar (USD): It is going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to the discount rate hike today. Personally, I think that this move shows that the Fed is trying to get the market to believe that economic recovery is taking place. This move is sort of a red herring, which induced a knee-jerk reaction from the market as soon as everyone hears “rate hike”. This move does not affect the Fed Funds Rate so it shouldn’t affect either businesses or consumers. So by the end of the day I expect that we’ll see some risk-taking as economic strength in the US is good for world economies and inflation is lower as reported by the CPI.
Yen (JPY): The yen is higher on risk-aversion, however I think the market may “have it wrong” as its gotten used to the risk-on, risk-off mentality. Let’s see if the Yen gives back some gains by day’s end.
In overnight markets, the Hang Seng and Nikkei were down over 2% and European markets have reversed prior losses and are trading higher. US futures are still negative, but trading well off their lows in the overnight session. Oil has reversed earlier losses and is trading around 79.5, and gold is back to around 1115.
When I saw the charts last night immediately following the Fed move, my initial reaction was similar to that of much of the market—sell everything, buy dollars and yen. However, as I thought about the implications of the move, I’m actually quite impressed with the timing of the move and think the Fed did a great job implementing this. And I haven’t been a big fan of the Fed as of late! In my view, this is positive for world markets.
Also, watch out for volatility as today is options expiration.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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US Earnings Increase World Confidence!
By Mike Conlon | February 17, 2010
US stock futures are higher this morning in the wake of a flurry of good corporate earnings reports. Of course many will tell you that “it’s easy to make money when you fire all of your employees”, but regardless of how the money was made, it bodes well for world economic growth.
This has buoyed forward further stock gains in a continuation of yesterdays market action. As a result, we are seeing further risk-taking in the markets, with world stock markets and commodities higher, and the US dollar and Japanese yen lower. Whether or not the market can hold on to these gains remains to be seen.
In world currencies:
Aussie (AUD): Predictably, the Aussie is trading higher this morning, particularly against the yen as higher risk takers seek yield. Notes from the RBA meeting referenced higher rates were only a matter of time and that they were close to pulling the trigger at the last policy meeting. Thus traders have increased their bets that this rate hike could take place in March.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also higher on risk-taking and higher commodity prices, though the economy in New Zealand is not as strong as its neighbor Australia. Rates are seen as being stable until the second half of the year, so expect the Kiwi to continue to fluctuate on the market risk themes. New Zealand will be reporting its consumer confidence numbers tomorrow so this could give some insight into retail sales and possible inflation or lack thereof.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie keeps chugging along near its highest level this month, helped higher by oil prices over $77 and an overall good economic picture. However, Canada eased pressure on potential rate hikes by tightening mortgage requirements, trying to prevent a housing bubble through regulation rather than interest rate hikes. If Canada can stave off further housing gains, they may be able to contain inflation without having to move on rates.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mostly down this morning, trading higher vs. only the Japanese yen. I could continue to beat this Greece theme to death but the market will be moving in and out of confidence in the common currency as more and more “news” comes out. There is still great structural risk to the Euro, and fears of contagion to the other PIIGS countries always keep investors on their toes.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed this morning, as the BOE voted unanimously to suspend its Bond-Purchase (QE) program on optimism that inflation will return to their 2% target rate. Recall that just yesterday, inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.5%. The British are famous for their “wait and see” approach and conservative measures. In the meantime, unemployment jumped to its highest level in 13 years, against an expected decline.
Dollar (USD): The dollar is showing strength this morning despite the stock futures and commodities markets trading higher. I expect some sort of “reversion to mean” to mean to take place today, with either stocks or the dollar pulling back, or a combination of both. US housing starts came in higher than expected this morning, showing that the economic recovery may be getting stronger and increased demand for housing may be picking up.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is at a 2-week low, trading at over 91 per US dollar, further cementing itself as the fuel for carry trades. The yen is down across the board ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision, where policy makers are expected to keep rates at .1%.
In overnight markets, Asia was up big with the Nikkei leading the way up 2.72%. European stock markets are also currently higher, all nearly posting better than 1% gains at the moment. In commodities, oil is just under $77 and gold is around $1118.
Overall, today is a bit of a mixed bag, with US dollar strength competing with the stock market for investor dollars. While risk-taking seems to be en vogue today, this could change at any point in time. While there is no real news that should derail this theme today, anything is possible.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Risk Appetite Returns!
By Mike Conlon | February 16, 2010
The markets are back to “normal” after some being closed for various holidays. Risk appetite is the play today, as the Euro is rebounding against the dollar on thoughts that the Euro may have slid “too far, too fast”. Also, news out of Australia from the Reserve Bank minutes hinted that further rate hikes were in order should the Australian economy extend its recovery.
Also to note is that commodity prices are higher as which is consistent with an increase in risk appetite.
On to the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on new from the RBA minutes. Analyst expectations are for the Aussie to gain to .91 vs. USD by the end of March. Should the economy continue to expand, then further rate hikes could be in order. The current benchmark rate is at 3.75%, making the Aussie a popular destination for carry trades.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is moving in tandem with its South Pacific partner the Aussie. While growth has not been as robust in New Zealand, the Kiwi will also benefit from increased commodity prices and a higher benchmark interest rate as well. That rate is currently 2.5%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is trading higher this morning on the risk trade as well as the fact that oil is back over $75. Canada is in the spotlight right now as host of the 2010 winter Olympics as sometimes they get lost in the shuffle in the risk trade hierarchy. The Loonie is up to 1.043 vs. USD this morning, its highest level this month.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher against all but the commodity currencies, paring back some of its losses from the previous week. There is tough talk coming from the EU finance ministers regarding Greece, as news has surfaced that Greece may have used derivatives to “fudge the numbers” in order to gain entry to the EU. The fact that Goldman Sachs was involved should come as a shock to no one. Also contributing to the Euro gains this morning is the reading from the German Sentiment Index this morning which was lower than previously reported, but ahead of analyst expectations which net-net is positive for the Euro.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning across the board as consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year earlier. A deviation of more than 1% from the target rate of inflation (2%) requires a letter from BOE Governor King as to how he intends to get back to the goal rate. Inflation volatility is to be expected, and this reading was not a surprise to analysts. This could put more Quantitative Easing back on the table for the UK, which would be Pound negative.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is down this morning as risk-taking is the flavor of the day and stock futures and commodities are higher. The dollar is down 1% vs. the Kiwi and Aussie.
Yen (JPY): As is expected on a risk-taking day, the Yen is down against all but the Pound as the threat of deflation keeps rate hikes off of the table and provides the fuel for carry trades in Aussie and Kiwi despite the good GDP numbers from yesterday.
In overnight markets, the Nikkei closed higher but the Hang Seng closed lower. European markets are higher as are US stock market futures. Oil is back over $75.25 (+1.5%) and gold is up to around 1115 (+1.38%).
As you can see, there is always something happening in the currency market that can influence sentiment and thus market direction. Following the news is extremely important in understanding how market participants view world events.
Do you want to be a market participant? Get started today!
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Possible Greek Bailout?
By Mike Conlon | February 9, 2010
So much for trading sideways yesterday. What started out as a quiet start to trading ended up with a continuation of last week’s sell-offs in the stock market, as the Dow closed below 10K for the first time this year. However, both gold and oil were up slightly yesterday, showing signs that some of the correlations that we often speak of may be breaking down.
This morning, markets are trading higher as hope is coming out of the Euro zone that the other European nations may be coming to help Greece in tackling their budget deficit. As you would expect, this is causing some risk-taking this morning.
Let’s look at what this means for the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): In addition to general risk themes this morning, the Aussie is trading higher as comments from the RBA’s Governor Stevens said that keeping rates low “may help cause bubbles and credit booms.” Also to note that Central bankers from around the globe are meeting in Australia to discuss the fallout from the credit crisis and to proceed going forward. It will be interesting to see if anything of substance comes out of this meeting, or is more of just a show.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is the largest gainer this morning, up 1.4% vs. JPY and 1.15% vs. USD. Higher commodity prices and risk-taking are fueling buying in the Kiwi. The Kiwi was also one of the biggest losers last week so it is also benefiting from some technical buying, as it holds near-tern support at .68 vs. USD.
Loonie (CAD): As mentioned yesterday, the Loonie is going to trade primarily on risk themes and commodity prices and today is the day that higher prices are lifting the Loonie, which is up against all but the Kiwi and Aussie, assuming its position of “3rd rung” on the risk-taking ladder.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher this morning on speculation that Greece is going to be bailed out by the rest of the Euro zone countries. Apparently ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has left the policy meeting taking place in Australia to return home to conduct EU business. This has lead to traders bidding up the Euro in anticipation of a solution being realized. Also the Euro is benefiting from its status as the “anti-dollar”, which is down today.
Pound (GBP): The bound is down this morning on a weak retail sales report that climbed at its slowest pace in almost 15 years. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the UK inflation report due out tomorrow which could be weaker than expected if the retail sales figures are indicative of slow UK growth, keeping inflation tame and not giving the BOE any reason to raise rates in the near future.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is giving back some gains after a going on a four-day tear as the risk aversion was the dominant theme last week. The Dollar is down vs. all but the Yen, and could strengthen to 90 vs. JPY is risk themes hold up today.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is the biggest loser this morning as risk appetite is driving carry trades this morning. Should any news come out of the Euro zone regarding a solution for Greece, then we could see some further depreciation as it would be “game on” for further risk-taking.
This morning is going to be a big open as US stock market futures are significantly higher. The Dow could open up some 100 points and oil and gold are also trading higher, with oil at 72.5 and gold at 1075.
In overnight markets, Asia was up primarily with the exception of the Nikkei which was down slightly, and Europe is currently up across the board on Greece bailout hopes.
Should the market hold onto and not give back gains, then I expect to see further dollar and yen weakness.
To learn more about how you can make money in the currency market, be sure to check out our affordable currency trading courses.
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