Yen: Good News/Bad News= No News
By Mike Conlon | November 16, 2009
There were a few reports coming out of Japan yesterday which could have seemingly moved the market, but the opposite effect has occurred. In this regard, the good news has negated the bad news and has caused the Japanese Yen (JPY) to trade in a tight range, though off slightly against other currencies.
The first bit of news was about the “horrific Japanese fiscal situation”, as reported by Bloomberg. This was the bad news.
The good news was that Japanese GDP came in at a surprising gain of 4.8%, ahead of all 20 analysts who had made projections on this figure. All told, this figure looms positive for the world’s second largest economy.
Also to note is that APEC, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, pledged to maintain their stimulus measures until the recovery is on “solid footing”.
As a result, stocks and commodities are higher, and the Canadian dollar (CAD) is benefiting from this, +1.03% vs. USD and +.90% vs. JPY.
This also puts the risk-taking trade back in play.
I’m going to wait to see if the market decides to put any more emphasis on either of these news items and which way the market will move.
To follow this currency pairs in real-time, be sure to sign up for a free practice account!
Tags: account, cad, commodities, currenc, currencies, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, dollar, economic, economy, free, fxedu, Il, Japan, jpy, market, Mike Conlon, news, practice, practice account, stock, stocks, time, trade, USD, Yen
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EUR/USD Breaks 1.50!
By Mike Conlon | October 22, 2009
From the “just a matter of time dept.”, the Euro reached 1.50 today against the dollar. The trend is clearly up for this pair, as US dollar weakness is no big secret. However, for as much complaining as you hear around the world regarding the weak dollar, the Euro-zone is perhaps that area that is the MOST adversely affected by it. (click chart to enlarge)
A note out of UBS today stated that, “If euro-dollar continues to gain in a volatile manner ahead of the November Group of 20, action at that meeting can be expected”. That action could be a concerted effort to weaken the EUR/USD.
So keep I’ll be keeping an eye on this pair to look for clues that would indicate that a reversal may be imminent. But for now, US dollar weakness rules “supreme”!
To follow this pair real-time, get a free practice account today!
To learn about how government actions cannot affect different currency pairs, check out our currency trading courses!
Tags: account, blog, course, currenc, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, currency trading, dollar, EUR, Euro, eurusd, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, meeting, Mike Conlon, practice, practice account, time, trend, USD
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The Swiss confirm that they are intervening when the Franc strengthens!
By Sean Hyman | July 10, 2009
The Swiss are intervening in their currency when they notice the franc’s strength. This is likely to continue until their economy no longer suffers from the franc’s appreciation OR until global economic growth is solidly underway to where traders are “franc sellers” once again as they seek out higher yielding currencies at that point. Here’s the Bloomberg article that confirms the Swiss actions: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ad95AZDGUM9s So while many pairs are falling lately, the Swiss are attempting to put a floor under EUR/CHF in particular. If they are successful, then one could pick up some meager rollover interest daily with minimal downside risks when compared with other currency pairs out there.
Want to learn more about fundamentals and technicals? Sign up for an inexpensive, only forex course today and we’ll show you how: http://www.mywealth.com/currency-trading.php
Also, get a free, real time demo trading station here: http://www.fxedu.com/practice-forex-account
Sean Hyman
Tags: account, article, blog, CHF, course, currencies, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, demo, demo trading, dow, economic, economy, EUR, forex, forextrading, franc, free, fundamental, fx, fxedu, Hyman, interest, mywealth, news, practice, real time, Sean, Sean Hyman, station, Swiss, technical, trade, trader, trading station
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 1 Comment »
When Support becomes Resistance!
By Mike Conlon | June 24, 2009
In my previous note today I mentioned that this morning was down for the Euro. As I was going through my charts I noticed something significant on EUR/USD. Earlier this month, I pointed out a technical pattern on this currency pair known as a “head and shoulders” pattern. The premise of the pattern is that when you draw the neckline it acts as support and if that support is breached it can become a pretty good short trade. Turned out to be a pretty good trade.
Now here we are, a couple of weeks later, and what was formerly short-term support has now become resistance! Let’s have a look… (click charts to enlarge)
As you can see from the charts, the area right around the neckline that had formerly been support has now become resistance and has held on two different occasions. This occurs often and is something that technical traders should be aware of. Short-term traders who like to trade “the range” can enter short positions below resistance with a stop placed just above.
Get ready for the FOMC announcement, just about an hour away!
Tags: account, blog, buck, charts, commodities, conlon, currency, currency pair, demo, dollar, dow, EUR, Euro, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, live, mike, mike conlon, money, pair, practice, practice account, recession, short, spot, ssi, technical, trade, trader, trading, U.S., USD
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The dollar is on the fence. Could tip either way shortly!
By Sean Hyman | June 8, 2009
When you look to currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CHF, you’ll see that the dollar is right on the trend line on the daily chart. It’s threatening to break down on EUR/USD and break upward on USD/CHF…but the question is: Is it a fake out? Or will these recent trend changes stay intact? We’ll know shortly but we have to let the price “judge that” by what it does rather than “betting” ahead of time and gambling on which way we “think” it will go. Rather we should “follow” the way that it does end up going. Pros are trend followers. Novices are always trying to guess ahead of time on the near term trend. So see if “dollar strength” prevails or if it’s a fake out and the foreign currencies keep their recent uptrend against it. The verdict will be out shortly!
Tags: CHF, currencies, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, dollar, dow, EUR, fxedu, Hyman, lower, Sean, Sean Hyman, time, trend, uptrend, USD
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Know your Patterns!
By Mike Conlon | June 4, 2009
As currency traders, it is extremely important to know technical patterns. Especially if one plans to trade in shorter-term time-frames. Yesterday I wrote about looking at different time-frames and finding trades that I may not otherwise know existed. And this part of my daily routine. Allow me to explain.
Every morning when I begin my day, I look at all of the currency pairs I intend to trade in as many time-frames as possible. I am looking for discernible patterns that I recognize that will give me a clue as to which way a pair may be moving that day. Once I have a few patterns that I like, I then check for news or information which may give me a clue as to why a certain pattern is forming. Here’s one I found this morning:
(click chart to enlarge)
As I was flipping through my charts, I came upon EUR/USD and saw this beauty on a 3-hour chart. A near-perfect head and shoulders pattern! If you look at the chart, you can see both shoulders (marked by an ‘S’) and the head (marked by an ‘H’). This is a reversal pattern and tells me that if the BODY *note not the wick* breaks the neckline, then its going to be a pretty good short opportunity.
If the candle does not break the neckline, then I can consider getting long and using the neckline as support, placing my stop just below that area.
Upon checking out the news, I know that the ECB had a rate meeting and that ECB President Trichet made some comments. Now I’m not going to pretend to be able to know the effects of his comments or actually even what he said for that matter, but I will let the market tell me.
By using a technical set-up to get into a trade, I can sport low-risk entries for what I’m hoping will be profitable trades. To learn more about how you can spot patterns like this one, check out our currency course. Just think, if you learn just one set-up from our course and you make a profitable trade, then the course has paid for itself!
Tags: blog, charts, comments, course, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, EUR, explain, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, market, news, rate, spot, technical, time, trade, trader, trades, USD
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Trading in Different Time-Frames!
By Mike Conlon | June 3, 2009
When trading different currency pairs, it is important to be aware of the time-frames you are trading in so that you can take advantage of different moves. Today is a perfect example of this scenario. So far this AM’s biggest losers are the commodity currencies. The Aussie dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar(CAD), and New Zealand dollar (NZD) are all losing ground against the US dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY).Does this mean it is time to get short? Not so fast. In previous articles Sean Hyman has made a great case for these currencies and frankly the charts don’t lie! The uptrends on the commodity currencies have been going up steadily and the fundamentals are in place for their rally to continue. But what to do about a day like today?This is where looking at different time-frames can help you. Take a look at the charts below. The first chart is a 5-minute chart of the AUD/USD pair. The lines drawn on the chart represent short-term resistance, so trades entered on the short side near those resistance points would provide low-risk entries for a short position.(click on charts to enlarge thumbnail)
The chart on the right side is the daily chart of the AUD/USD pair. As you can see, the trend is clearly up. Which means that you want to be long, and brings us to the theme of the day, that you can be in opposite positions on the same pair at the same time! This is known as “hedging”, and can really help add to your profits and help limit your losses.
Recently the NFA (National Futures Association) outlawed this practice here in the US, but this is still allowable abroad. If you would like to learn more about hedging or how you can open a hedging trading account with a broker abroad, email us at: sales@fxedu.com.
Tags: article, AUD, Aussie, blog, cad, charts, commodity, currencies, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, dollar, forex, forextrading, fundamental, hedging, Japan, jpy, new zealand, new zealand dollar, nzd, spot, ssi, time, trend, uptrend, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 1 Comment »
Dollar Sells off Hard…Oil - Above $61!
By Sean Hyman | May 20, 2009
The dollar is breaking lower…oil heading higher (hit $61 a barrel so far). The EUR/USD and AUD/USD are soaring while USD/CHF is tanking hard.
We have a broad “dollar sell off” underway so far this morning.
For Americans, this is bitter-sweet. This could help their stock and commodity investments but will kill them at the gas pump, at the grocery store and when they purchase other goods (commodities). So their purchasing power from their paycheck erodes.
How can you fight this off? Buy EUR/USD and AUD/USD. The euro is the “anti-dollar” and the Aussie does well when commodities do well.
So being “long” these currency pairs will help you fend off the effects of a falling dollar.
Get a demo or live account, here today: http://www.fxedu.com/
Just click on “Practice Account” or “Live Trading Account”.
Happy Trading!
Sean Hyman
www.forextradingblog.com
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, blog, CHF, commodities, commodity, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, demo, dollar, EUR, Euro, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, invest, live, lower, oil, practice, practice account, Sean Hyman, ssi, stock, USD
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Low Momentum Begets High Momentum!
By Sean Hyman | May 7, 2009
Yesterday was the “ho-hum” day for intra-day traders. However, low volatility begets high volatility. It doesn’t have to occur the very next day…but one thing’s for certain…if there’s low volatility for a period of time, your “radar” should be on alert for the breakout because it will usually be powerful and directional.
Today is that day. The yen is tanking against the commodity currencies the most (NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY) but also is tanking vs. the euro too (EUR/JPY). So all of these pairs have bolted higher to the top of the percentage gainers on the list.
That means that “today”, big traders are “risk seekers” and have their offensive team out on the field. They’re buying commodity currencies predominately.
NZD/JPY is up a whopping 3.29% so far on the day and AUD/JPY is right behind it at 2.39%.
Also, as I’m writing, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are working their way up the lists. So they’re now buying up these currencies vs. the buck too.
So the theme of the day so far is yen and dollar selling (selling defensive currencies) and buying commodity currencies.
Also, I hope you noticed last night that Australia ADDED JOBS rather than lost jobs in their latest employment report. Their unemployment rate DECREASED.
Australia, in my opinion, has the strongest fundamentals of all major currencies out there right now. Therefore, if you agree, you’d want to look to AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, etc. for “long” opportunities as they arise and take them over other currency pairs that have buy signals with “lesser fundamentals”. Get started with a demo account today: http://www.fxedu.com/practice-forex-account
Sean Hyman
www.forextradingblog.com
Tags: alert, AUD, blog, breakout, buck, CHF, commodity, currencies, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, dollar, EUR, Euro, forex, forextrading, fundamental, jpy, nzd, rate, Sean Hyman, time, trade, trader, unemployment, USD, Yen
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Chart: How this recession compares to others historically.
By Sean Hyman | April 3, 2009
I ran across a chart from the people at www.chartoftheday.com that I found interesting and thought I’d pass it along to you.
Sometime between 3-8 months from now, we will likely be out of the recession. Being that stocks and currency pairs tend to “lead” that by some months…this bodes well for stocks in general and the carry trades (especially the exotics - ZAR, TRY, SGD …and NZD and AUD) from here.
It also means that the “strong yen” days are probably largely over and the U.S. dollar may not rally as hard over the coming months as it has over the past few months. Click on the chart below.
Sean Hyman
Forextradingblog.com
Tags: AUD, blog, carry trade, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, dollar, forex, forextrading, interest, nzd, recession, Sean Hyman, stock, stocks, time, trades, U.S., Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 3 Comments »