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  • Opinions - Not Facts

    This blog consists of contributions from FXCM staff, executives and people that have a relationship with FXCM. In spirit of a blog, the posts are conversational and opinionated. However, they are not official FXCM policy and not double-checked for facts. The authors are providing information that they believe to be true or opinions they hold. To verify information or check official FXCM policy, please contact FXCM through the firm's official website, www.fxcm.com.

    • DailyFX Fourth Quarter Currency Forecasts

    By DailyFX Updates | October 11, 2007

    Our Fourth Quarter Currency Forecasts have been released, hot off the press for the EURO, US DOLLAR, JAPANESE YEN, BRITISH POUND, SWISS FRANC AND COMMODITY CURRENCIES!

    Read them now

    Q4 Forecasts


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    DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Loses Ground, Thursday’s Import Price Data Could Spark A Bid Tone

    By DailyFX Radio | October 10, 2007

    · US Dollar loses ground on renewed speculative selling

    · However, signs of mounting price pressures in Thursday’s US data could spark a bid tone

    To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum

    Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:

    http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM101007.mp3

    Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes


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    DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Indecisive following FOMC, Canadian Dollar Shows Signs of Weakness

    By DailyFX Radio | October 9, 2007

    · US dollar rate cut expectations drop significantly 

    · However, EUR/USD may still go on to target 1.4157

    · Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Weekly Calendar

    To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum

    Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:

    http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM100907.mp3

    Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes


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    Topics: DailyFX Radio Podcasts | 1 Comment »

    GBP/USD a Buy?

    By DailyFX Updates | October 8, 2007

    According to our Speculative Sentiment Report from last Thursday, the SSI for the GBP/USD flipped from negative to positive.  In the past,  when retail was long but flipped to net short, the GBP/USD has rallied in the following days.  Based upon this information, now may be a good time to buy the GBP/USD for a quick bounce.

     Latest Speculative Sentiment Report


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    Forex Markets React to Non-Farm Payrolls

    By DailyFX Updates | October 5, 2007

    Check out our Instant Insight on the Non-Farm Payrolls on DailyFX. Here are the numbers:

    Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: 110k Actual, 89k Previous
    Unemployment Rate: 4.7% Actual, 4.6% Previous
    Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -18k Actual, -45kr Previous
    Average Hourly Earnings: 4.1% Actual, 3.9% Previous
    Average Weekly Hours: 33.8 Actual, 33.8 Previous

    How do you think these changes will affect the forex market in the weeks ahead?


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    DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Braces for Critical NFP Data, Europe Rallies

    By DailyFX Radio | October 4, 2007

    · Dollar sentiment worsens on today’s Jobless Claims and Factory Orders data 

    · Will Nonfarm Payrolls report spark US dollar gains, Dow losses? 

    · Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Weekly Calendar

    To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum

    Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:

    http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM100407.mp3

    Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes


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    Forex Markets Sit Tight for Non-Farm Payrolls

    By DailyFX Updates | October 4, 2007

    This Friday, we are expecting Non-farm payrolls for the month of September and now more than ever, the fate of the US dollar and stability of the US economy hinges upon the outcome of tomorrow’s labor market report. On September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years.  Although concern about the credit market played a major role in the decision, the central bank also found the first drop in payrolls since September 2003 alarming.  At the time, the market was looking for a 100k rise, which is the same forecast for tomorrow, but instead of adding 100k jobs, US companies actually laid off 4k workers. The market is currently divided on whether the Fed will continue to lower interest rates later this month and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report will help to confirm or deny that.

    Read the rest of our Non-Farm Payrolls Preview


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    DailyFX Forex Radio - Dollar Rebounds on ECB Comments, Commodity Dollars Hit Multi-Year Highs

    By DailyFX Radio | October 1, 2007

    · US Dollar Plummets and Euro Sets Record Heights, but economic data disappoints 

    · Will the dollar respond to plummeting Pending Home Sales? 

    · Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Weekly Calendar

    To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum

    Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:

    http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM100107.mp3

    Want to hear our PodCasts daily? Subscribe to them for free on iTunes


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    Forex Reversal in Store for Swiss Franc?

    By DailyFX Updates | October 1, 2007

    We just published our COT Report on DailyFX.com

    Although EUR/USD positioning is not at any extreme levels, Swiss position is.

    According to David Rodriguez:

    CHF: Speculative positioning has reached extreme overbought levels on the Swiss Franc (oversold on the USDCHF), suggesting that a turn may occur in the coming weeks of trade. Though we are reminded that positioning can remain extreme for extended periods of time, it remains relatively clear that the CHF has less scope for a continued medium term rally. Similarly overextended Commercial Net Longs support this view, with the COT Difference coefficient (line in green) at its highest since mid-2006. At this point the USDCHF based near 1.1900 on its way to 1.2800.


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    Can the US Dollar Fall Further?

    By DailyFX Updates | September 27, 2007

    Here is an excerpt from my special report on DailyFX

     

    Can the US Dollar Fall Further? 

    The answer is yes.  A trend in the currency market can last far longer than many people would otherwise expect. We have seen one way directional moves last for months and in some cases, even years.  Interest rate outlooks play a major role in the future direction of currencies so with the market pricing in another 125bp of easing by the end of next year, the US dollar could easily fall to 1.50 against the Euro.  This is especially true if the ECB remains nonchalant about the Euro’s move.  At some point, the benefits of a weaker dollar such as increased exports and foreign investment will help to turn the

    US economy around, at which point the dollar will begin to rise once again. 

    What Does This Mean for Your Investments? 

    Regardless of whether you are actively involved in the currency market or monitor it at all, the value of the US dollar or currencies does matter.  Companies that do a lot of foreign sales will benefit the most because their foreign currency revenue will be higher when repatriated not because they sold more goods, but because their earnings from currency conversion will be larger.  The industries with the greatest foreign sales exposure are energy, technology and consumer staples.   Companies that produce commodities usually also benefit from dollar weakness while the companies that will be hurt the most are big importers.  If you have a view on where the US dollar is headed or want to hedge against some of your stock market exposure, the purest way to do so would be through trading or investing in the US dollar directly in the currency market.


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