Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint!
By Mike Conlon | January 8, 2010
The US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP) is usually one of the biggest market moving numbers in the currency markets. Today’s number is no exception. The report came in for December at -85K, a very disappointing figure. Estimates were expecting this number to be flat, that we neither gained or lost jobs for the month. Although I had seen some pretty wild numbers tossed around, anywhere from +/- 200K. The revisions for the prior two months showed a net loss of 1K jobs, a negligible but encouraging figure.
So what does this all mean? Well in a word: trouble.
The US economy is not adding jobs nearly as quickly as the government had hoped. With all of the enormous amounts of stimulus spending, we have little to show for it. As a result of this figure, the US dollar reversed course and immediately began to weaken. If anyone had any delusions about a US rate hike in the first quarter of the year, they can pretty much forget about it as its now off of the table. Unless the dollar tanks so badly that Bernanke HAS to do something.
My guess is that we’re going to be looking at Japan 2.0 here in the US, our own version of their “lost decade”.
Just to illustrate the volatility that can occur around this figure, take a look at this chart of EUR/USD: (click chart to enlarge)
Close to 100 pips in a few minutes!
This could make an interesting year for the US dollar. There are 2 basic ways that we will see dollar strength this year; either through interest rate hikes or risk aversion plays. So while this logic may be a bit counter-intuitive to some, it’s going to be very important to take our clues from the other markets to see which theme is playing out.
And of course don’t forget that the dollar can continue to weaken well into this year, the question is going to be that if things don’t get better on the employment front, at what point does that filter through to the other markets?
Only time will tell.
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Tags: Bernanke, blog, cad, course, currenc, currency, currency market, dollar, economy, EUR, eurusd, forex, forex trading, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, Mike Conlon, minutes, nfp, payrolls, pip, pips, time, USD
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 1 Comment »
Volatility Reigns Supreme!
By Mike Conlon | December 16, 2009
As I mentioned, things can get dicey around the Fed rate decision. Today is no different. Here is a 5-minute chart of EUR/USD:
Looks like the US dollar is strengthening against the Euro even though the Fed is keeping policy “unchanged”. Right now this pair is hovering around 1.451. It will be interesting to see if it can hold 1.45, an area of psychological support. If that level is breached, the next stop could be at 1.438. Stay tuned!
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Tags: account, blog, decision, dollar, EUR, Euro, eurusd, fed, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, Mike Conlon, pair, practice, rate, rate decision, time, USD
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More Problems for the Euro!
By Mike Conlon | December 11, 2009
I wrote earlier in the week in an article titled, Euro Dead Zone, that there is some potentially trouble brewing in the Euro. Part of this is due to structure of that currency, in that it is comprised of different economies at different levels of strength.
Typically, the stronger economies “balance out” the weaker ones, and as I mentioned there are starting to be a lot more weaker than strong. One of the “solutions” that I pointed out is that the ECB might consider a lowering rates to make it more affordable for the weaker countries to gain access to capital. It doesn’t appear that there is going to be inflation there anytime soon.
But today there is another solution being reported on Bloomberg: that perhaps the weak countries, most notably Ireland and Greece, would pull out of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Or they can pray that the IMF will bail them out.
This presents a problem that is two-fold: 1) I can’t imagine that these countries would leave the EMU voluntarily, which would mean that they have become “persona non grata”, namely not welcome or forced out; which would 2) undermine confidence in the Euro as a currency.
And today we are seeing this on the charts. Let’s look at a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD: (click chart to enlarge)
Now while part of this move can be attributed to US dollar strength, I can’t help but think that the Euro is inherently weak due to the competing interests of its members. If they expel the “weak” members every time there is a problem, the Euro is quickly going to turn back into the Deutschmark! As of this writing, EUR/USD is down .68%.
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Tags: account, article, blog, charts, currenc, currency, dollar, dow, ECB, EUR, Euro, Europe, eurusd, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, lot, lower, market, mie, Mike Conlon, news, practice, rate, time, USD
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Weekly Outlook from InnerFX
By Mike Conlon | November 24, 2009
EUR/USD
Yesterday’s rebound against the US dollar (USD) provides a clue about a potential resumption of the longer term uptrend. We’ll see if the euro will manage to hold gains above the fresh breached barrier into the 1.4950 region (which is currently under minor pressure) – formed by the falling trend line coming from 1.5045 over the previous lower highs. In case of an extended pullback below 1.4950, the 1.4850-1.4900 level will eventually limit losses in order to keep the bullish structure under development. I maintain my bullish stance on euro but I’m slightly cautious due to the repeated price action hesitation against the 1.5000-1.5060 top side. As I said earlier today: it won’t be easy to break higher, but it won’t be easy to drop lower (below 1.4800/50) either, while signs of hesitation continue to rule across the board – resulting in short-lived moves in a chop-chop manner.
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-23-2009
- EURUSD daily chart 11-23-2009
NZDUSD
In my previous short-term outlook, I mentioned that a pullback from .7440 would probably face solid bids around .7300, and eventually lower – around .7150. The upside remains favored for now as the pullback has faced a solid support, indeed. The rising trend line coming from .6475 also coincided with the recent bottom, so there are some valid reasons to keep the bullish view on NZD valid. Keep an eye on the .7400 handle as a breach is needed to fully confirm that the corrective cycle has ended.
Gold seem unstoppable and continues to rally to fresh highs on a regular basis – recently exceeding the upper boundary of the uptrend channel, as seen in the chart below, and the 1130 region is expected to provide support on pullbacks within the coming days. While it continues to push higher, dollar weakness across the board is likely to continue.
Let’s take a look at current Gold and S&P500 charts: both seem to provide enough bullish clues (for now) to support the ‘weaker dollar’ scenario. The important levels to watch are: 1130 support for Gold; 1095-1100 support region for the S&P500 along with the 1113 resistance.
- Gold chart 11-23-2009
- S&P500 short-term chart 11-23-2009
Have a great week!
Tags: analysis, charts, Conlon, data, dollar, dow, easy, EUR, Euro, eurusd, fx, gold, Il, live, lower, nzd, pair, pairs, scheme, short, Swiss, time, trend, uptrend, USD
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EUR/USD Breaks 1.50!
By Mike Conlon | October 22, 2009
From the “just a matter of time dept.”, the Euro reached 1.50 today against the dollar. The trend is clearly up for this pair, as US dollar weakness is no big secret. However, for as much complaining as you hear around the world regarding the weak dollar, the Euro-zone is perhaps that area that is the MOST adversely affected by it. (click chart to enlarge)
A note out of UBS today stated that, “If euro-dollar continues to gain in a volatile manner ahead of the November Group of 20, action at that meeting can be expected”. That action could be a concerted effort to weaken the EUR/USD.
So keep I’ll be keeping an eye on this pair to look for clues that would indicate that a reversal may be imminent. But for now, US dollar weakness rules “supreme”!
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Tags: account, blog, course, currenc, currency, currency pair, currency pairs, currency trading, dollar, EUR, Euro, eurusd, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, meeting, Mike Conlon, practice, practice account, time, trend, USD
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 1 Comment »
The Breakup of the Euro?!?
By Sean Hyman | March 2, 2009
You know, it’s amazing that just a couple of years ago it seems that everyone was saying that the euro would replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Roll the hands of time forward to today and now you have fund managers talking about how the euro will fall apart.
In fact, last Friday, Hayman Advisors (not Hyman) stated that the European Monetary Union (EMU) is about to fall apart. People took note because this is a firm that earned $500 million calling the subprime mortgage collapse correctly.
You see, right now there’s trouble brewing in the EMU. Western Europe isn’t hurting as badly as
It appears that
A Firm that Called Subprime Right now says that the Euro will break up!
This is one reason why Hayman believes that the $17 trillion economy of the euro bloc could break apart.
I do agree that there is a lot of trouble brewing for
But it gets even worse! Irish banks took on debt that’s equivalent to 11 times the nation’s own GDP. Dutch bank debt has reached 7 times GDP while
Their bond market is now showing huge signs of these fears. There’s a huge disparity between the yields of German bonds and that of Austrian or
This is causing investors to take note. However, personally, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle of two extreme views.
For now, I don’t see the euro replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. While I do see a lot of turmoil for the euro due to these issues, I’d really be surprised if it were enough to break up the Euro region after only 10 years of existence.
Personally, I don’t think it’s a wise move for a “surplus” country like
On Friday, it pushed the EUR/USD pair lower and in today’s trading seems to have it “trapped in a range”.
As the U.S. dollar index toys with breaking a double top and the EUR/USD toys with the long term support level of 1.25, we’ll know what the market things for sure…one way or the other pretty soon as we see how the euro deals with this level (whether it holds or breaks).
Right now it’s not looking good as more and more bad news comes out of the region while the EUR/USD pair sits at this critical juncture.
Click on the chart to enlarge it.
Tags: currency, dollar, dow, EUR, Euro, eurusd, forex, forextrading, index, invest, investor, market, U.S., USD
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EURUSD
By Laetitia Vaval | October 11, 2007
I just entered a long EURUSD position at 1.4215. I realize this is probably not an ideal entry point I realize, but I’ve been away for a while and didn’t get a chance to trade before. The Euro tested an all-time high at 1.4280 almost 2 weeks ago and has now been in a steady uptrend for the past 3 days. It seems that it is either about to test this all-time again to form a double top or trade past this level and toward 1.43.
In the case that a double top forms, my upside is: 1.4280-1.42153 = 65pips. I must therefore place my stop about 35 pips below my entry point (1.4215) at 1.4180 in order to have a 2:1 risk reward ratio. If the Euro breaks that all-time high then it could possibly trade up to 1.43 and higher and in that case.
U.S. retail sales are being released tomorrow morning at 8:30, and it will affect my trade if it differs from expectations as the EURUSD is the primary currency pair affected. I’ll need to closely monitor the trade during the release since there will be a lot of volatility and my stop might be too tight. will update after the release.
Tags: eurusd, retail sales, wall street warriors
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Trading the Fed Rate Cut Announcement
By Laetitia Vaval | September 19, 2007
Yesterday was pretty exciting since the Fed was set to announce whether they were cutting interests rates and if yes, by how much (25bps or 50bps). Opinions were mainly divided between a 25bp or a 50 bp rate cut. Before, the announcement at 2:15, I prepped myself by planning out the trades I would place for each scenario.
A 25bps cut would have been bullish for the dollar whereas a 50bps would have been bearish. I decided to trade the currencies I was most familiar with — that is the EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
At 2:15pm EST, the Fed announced that they were in fact cutting rates by half a point. The reaction in the US Dollar was immediate as you can see on the 5-minute charts above (EURUSD and GBPUSD). In the case of a 50 bp cut, my plan was to get long the Euro and the Pound as soon as possible right after the announcement.
The morning of the announcement I got long the EURUSD at 1.38818. The pair did not move much until the announcement in the afternoon. Within 5 mins the EUR jumped to 1.3965 - more than an 80pips. However, soon after the pair reversed and traded down. I got out of my position at the top of the wick of the next 5-minute (red) candle at 1.3936. I made $542 on that trade. OF course, the reversal was only temporary and a few minutes later the Euro continued trading up and at 14:40 hit 1.3980, and a few hours later hit a high of 1.3987. Had i held onto my trade longer my profits could have been doubled.
My second trade involved the GBPUSD. I also got long the pound in light of the half point rate cut. I actually ended up buying 2 lots of the GBP. I bought lot #1 at 2.00419 and sold it for 2.00670 ( a 25.1 pip gain). I bought lot #2 at 2.00528 and sold it at 2.00650. Looking at the 5 minute chart from yesterday, it is easy to see that I only captured a fraction of the profits that could have been made on this explosive upmove. As you can tell from the 2nd chart above, the GBP kept trading up to hit a high of 2.0150 about 35 minutes later. Same problem here as in the EURUSD, and many of my previous trades as you can see in my past postings — I exit my trades way to early and then they keep trading my favor.
About 15 minutes after the announcement I placed a few smaller trades on the USDCAD (got long at 1.0178) and re-entered a long position in the EURUSD at 1.3960. I exited those trades a few pips higher and made some minor profits — about $100.
I really enjoy trading the news. It’s very fast paced and there is a potential to make a lot of money. However, unfortunately market moving news like the fed rate cut do not happen everyday and in the meantime, I have to make some trades in the “slower” in between phases. Today, I’m going to focus on trying to find a few range-trading currencies.
Will update on that this afternoon.
Tags: dollar, dow, eurusd, forex, forextrading, pips, rate cut, trades, wall street warrior
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US Retail Sales
By Laetitia Vaval | September 14, 2007
As I wrote yesterday, I had a short position in the USDJPY when I left the office. At 12:30 GMT, the August US Advance Retail Sales came out at 0.3% ( vs. 0.5% expected). Although this number came out slightly below expectations, the real disappointment came from US Retail Sales LESS Autos (-0.4% vs. 0.2% expected). This number indicates that US consumers are spending less money and is reflected on the USDJPY chart (above) within minutes of its release. I was short from 115.320 kept my position overnight. The USD weakened this morning in light of the disappointing Retail Sales release and the USDJPY dropped to a low of 114.35. I decided to buy back at 114.51 as I was starting to see a reversal and the beginning of a new uptrend. I made a 81pip profit.
I am still holding onto the EURUSD position that I bought yesterday at 1.3894. As I write, it is trading at 1.385.
Tags: currency trading, eurusd, forex, forextrading, jpy, retail sales, wall street warrior
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Trading when economic data is released
By Laetitia Vaval | September 13, 2007
Today, I’m going to write a little bit about having a position open when major economic data is released. As I wrote on my previous thread, I opened a long position in the GBPUSD yesterday and decided to keep my position overnight. By doing so I made a major mistake: I didn’t check the economic calendar on DailyFx and therefore was not aware that the UK was releasing its RICS House Price Balance for the month of August at 23:01GMT. This indicator measures the costs of homes in the U.K. and was estimated to come out at 10.0%. A rise in house prices usually reflects an overall strong housing market and strong economy. However, this number came out at -1.8% much below expectations and even showed a decrease in the cost of homes — an indicator of an overall weak economy.
Of course the GBPUSD reacted to this disapointing news and dipped about 30pips below the level it was trading at before the release. Having placed my stop at 2.027, I was stopped out at 19:34 EST. The fact that I was not aware of this important overnight news release didn’t allow me to adjust my stop price since I should have foreshadowed that the GBPUSD would be fluctuating greatly following the release. So as I wrote earlier, I was stopped out at 2.027 — a 46pip loss. Of course, the pound traded back up slowly and peaked at 2.03440 mid-day today.
This mistake is in some way very valuable because it taught me to check which indicators will be released overnight, the consequences they may have on the positions I am holding and how to make the necessary adjustements to avoid big losses.
Today, I am trading the EURUSD and the USDJPY, and have to take into consideration that major economic releases will be coming out tonight regarding both the US and Japan. At 8:30 EST tomorrow morning, Advance Retail Sales - a major market moving indicator — will be released and could trigger a rather large move for the EURUSD if not in line with the 0.5% expectations for August. Japan will also be releasing some relatively important data overnight regarding Industrial Production — which could have a market moving impact on the USDJPY.
I’m going to hold my EURUSD position overnight, as I am looking to keep it for a longer period of time. I’m going to make sure I place a large enough stop, so that I do not get stopped out of my position if the US economic numbers come out better than expected. I’m going to place my stop at 1.3777 which was a good support level on 09/10/07.
Tags: dailyfx, dow, economic release, eurusd, gbp, housing market, pips, retail sales, wall street warriors
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