Unusually Uncertain!
By Mike Conlon | July 22, 2010
Those were the comments that were made by Fed Chairman Bernanke at yesterday’s testimony to Congress in describing his current view of the economy. This sent the market into a bit of tizzy, causing a sell-off in stocks and creating Dollar strength.
However this morning the markets are riding higher on the back of good US corporate earnings and better than expected European economic data. While stocks have been volatile lately, investors are starting to come around to realize that stocks may be the only chance they have to see gains in their portfolios as bonds are paying next to nothing.
That is investors who are unaware of the forex market. Those of you who have been following this blog know that the currency market offers added protection against downside risk and allows you to diversify into the economic story of other countries.
In Europe, stronger than expected PMI and industrial new orders data have helped the Euro rebound from yesterday’s lows. This all adds up to risk-taking in the market ahead of tomorrow’s release of the results of the European bank stress tests.
In the UK, retail sales figures came in better than expected and US jobless claims are due out at 8:30 AM EST.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking despite the fact that business confidence figures declined for the third straight month.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher much like the Aussie but has the added benefits of comments from the finance Minister who stated that he is seeing signs of economic rebalancing. The tradables sector expanded 3.4%, negating declining consumer confidence figures which were down 5.2%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is somewhat mixed today as oil is higher following risk taking themes. However the market is a tad hesitant as concerns over US growth could affect Canada more than the other commodity currencies. This is evidenced by Euro strength vs. the Loonie. BOC Governor Carney is due to speak today and there is some speculation that he may back away from the dovish comments which accompanied the most recent rate hike.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher this morning as better than expected industrial orders and PMI data show signs of economic growth. This comes a day in advance of the bank stress tests, which is currently expected to project further Euro strength and not weakness. Something interesting to note is that China has been European debt despite the risks which shows that perhaps they favor the European plan of austerity over the US plan of extend and pretend.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is trading as would be expected on a risk taking day. In addition, household spending figures showed an increase of .7% vs. the expectation of .5%, and retail sales ex auto came in at 1% vs. an expectation of .6%. This may cause the BOE to re-think policy if inflation does not fall back below 3%.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is the whipping boy today as Bernanke basically told the world that the US economy stinks in no uncertain terms. This morning, jobless claims came in higher than expected at 464K vs. and expectation of 445K. Existing home sales and the house price index are due out later this morning but I don’t expect those figures to be encouraging either.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly lower though trading higher against the Dollar, despite the fact that the rhetoric is starting to pick up from various ministers who are concerned about Yen strength. The Japanese are known to intervene in their currency but at this point the market does not care as the US dollar is clearly the least desirable currency.
Well short of calling Bernanke “Captain Obvious”; no kidding that US economic prospects are “uncertain”. However I don’t know why he thinks it is “unusual”. Let’s face it, Bernanke is more of a history buff than forward-thinker, and perhaps his reliance on his study of the Great Depression has led him astray.
World economies couldn’t be more different today than they were some 70 years ago. To think that because the economy is not behaving like you thought it would based on interpretation of an event that occurred so long ago is borderline stupidity.
Here’s some certainty for ya Ben: encourage this administration to stop the profligate spending! Economies around the globe have decided to cut the fat and take their medicine; it’s a shame that US politicians don’t have the same political backbone.
This is akin to saying that it is unhealthy for a person to lose 50 pounds. While this would be true for a 100 pound woman, it most certainly would NOT be for a woman who weighed twice that amount.
And that is the problem that we have in the US today folks—that when politicians look in the mirror, they can’t recognize that we are obese! It’s like reverse economic anorexia!
It’s time to cut the fat here in the US, starting with our politicians and this administration. Trying to maintain an unhealthy weight is, well unhealthy.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Budget Cuts!
By Mike Conlon | June 22, 2010
The British pound is lower this morning as the UK budget showed a commitment to a balanced budget and a reduction in spending of close to 30 billion pounds annually. This should come as no surprise to the market, yet the Pound is lower as the UK attempts to cut its deficit.
This coincides with some concerns in the market over European bank funding problems which are causing some risk aversion in the market this morning. In addition, yesterday’s enthusiastic response to the Chinese announcement to allow the Yuan to float was short-lived as the US stock market finished the session lower, and futures are pointing to a lower open this morning as well.
Consumer prices were higher in Canada, and there was a note out this morning saying that central banks around the globe are starting to diversify away from the Euro and into the Aussie and Loonie. This could potentially affect their status as “risk assets” as the market is starting to realize that these are strong economies.
So we could see some mixed trading going forward, as the risk-on, risk-off mentality works its way out of the market and these currencies begin to trade on their own fundamentals. Japanese yen will still see gains during risky times as it is still the primary funder of carry-trades, but it will be interesting to see if traders actually unwind the carry trades or add to them going forward.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mixed this morning on risk-aversion, though it appears to be bouncing off its lows from the Euro session. Demand for the Aussie is higher because of the news from its largest trading partner, China. In addition, the news about central banks diversifying away from the Euro to the Aussie have slightly out-weighed risk themes.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is affected more by risk aversion this morning than the Aussie, as the NZ economy is not deemed large or strong enough to receive diversified funds from central banks that are moving out of Euros.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher across the board as CPI figures came in .1% higher than expected to 1.4%. This shows that Canadian economy is still chugging along and that the potential for rate hikes is still on the table. This makes the Loonie a destination for funds from central banks diversifying away from the Euro, with the added benefit of potential rate hikes.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower this morning despite the fact that German business confidence was higher. An ECB council member said that some banks are facing funding problems. This comes in advance of the European bank stress tests which are due out sometime next month and could be the next landmine that sends the Euro lower. Banks in Spain may borrow 10 billion euro from its bank-rescue fund.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is also lower as the UK announced its emergency budget which showed a commitment to deficit reduction by reducing spending and setting the table for tax hikes down the road. This has heightened the fear of double-dip recession in the UK, but these announced measures have likely saved the UK top-credit rating from downgrades, which would make it more expensive for them to borrow.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower this morning despite some of the risk in the market. The Chinese decision to allow the Yuan to float more freely and be tied to a basket of currencies and not the US dollar alone is likely causing some selling. Existing home sales are due out later this morning and could provide a snapshot of the housing market ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is higher on risk aversion due largely in part to the Euro debt crisis. In addition, Prime Minister Kan pledged to balance the Japanese budget in 10 years and to reduce bond sales to gain investor confidence. This is quite the task as Japan has the world’s largest budget deficit, so reduced spending and tax changes may be seen as welcome by the markets.
Just when things start to quiet down, the Euro debt crisis comes screaming back into the room and reminds investors that the EU problems have not been solved. Bank funding problems and the upcoming stress tests may show an ugly picture of the financial health of the Euro zone.
Meanwhile, while everyone yesterday lauded the Chinese announcement to allow the Yuan to float more freely, the realization that they now want to use a basket of currencies to peg to (including the potentially sinking ship Euro) is just another way to manipulate their currency to attempt to keep it low.
Canada and Australia could be major beneficiaries of both the Chinese and Euro zone news. Commodity prices have pulled back this morning, but both of these countries have strong economies and that is reflected in their currency gains this morning.
Stay tuned, this may not be a lazy summer after all!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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A Perfect Storm!
By Mike Conlon | May 25, 2010
World financial markets are facing a “perfect storm” as a combination of geo-political and financial uncertainty is driving risk-aversion. The first issue is coming from the Euro zone as Spain seeks to shore up its banking system. A series of banking mergers aimed at pairing weak banks with stronger ones has caused investors to fear that indeed contagion from the debt crisis has taken place.
Secondly, news out of Asia that N. Korea may have been responsible for the sinking of a S. Korean vessel has heightened political tensions in the region. Whether or not there will be consequences remains to be seen but N. Korea has been known to make idle threats which are intended to destabilize the status quo.
Lastly, news out China that Secretaries Geithner and Clinton are making headway with the Chinese regarding Yuan revaluation may be picking up has brought further uncertainty to the marketplace as there is no telling what the lasting effect may be IF such actions were taken.
This all adds up to MAJOR risk-aversion in the markets in a continuation of yesterday’s selloffs and flight to safety. Libor rates (the rates at which banks lend to one another) have increased to levels last seen during the initial banking crisis here in the US from 2008. Both Asian and European stock markets have sold off to the tune of 2.5-3%, and both gold and oil are trading lower.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower on risk aversion. While the economy in Australia has been strong, the unwinding of carry trades has punished the Aussie dragging it down to 10-month lows. Should China effectively attempt to slowdown its over-heating economy, the economic situation in Australia could change dramatically for the worse.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also lower this morning, taking cues from oil prices which are below $68. Economists are still predicting a rate hike at next week’s rate policy meeting, though global economic uncertainty may derail that plan. However, since the Loonie has been beaten up by risk-aversion, this may actually be a good time to sneak in a rate hike that won’t strengthen the currency too much.
Kiwi (NZD): Same deal for the Kiwi; risk aversion dragging it lower. The RBNZ reported its 2-year inflation outlook that was largely in line with expectations.
Euro (EUR): First Greece, now Spain. The moves taking place in Spain’s banking system have put investors on high alert, though it must be noted that Spain has not sought out any assistance as of yet. File this under the, “where there’s smoke there’s fire” sentiment. In the meantime, Industrial orders in the Euro zone were higher showing signs that they are benefitting from a weaker Euro. Stay tuned.
Pound (GBP): UK GDP figures came in largely in line with expectations, indicating that the UK economy grew .3% in the last quarter on the back of the highest manufacturing gains seen in 4 years. The Pound is still vulnerable to any fallout from the Euro debt crisis, but BOE policy-maker Posen said that the UK was at a low risk of experiencing the type of economic stagnation that plagued Japan in there “lost decade”.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is higher as the rush to the flight to quality is in full effect. Yesterday, existing home sales came in better than expected, but it was not enough to reverse losses. Later this morning, we are going to get consumer confidence and the home price index which will show whether or not a consumer-led recovery may be taking place.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is the best performer this morning as the un-wind of carry trades has increased demand. In addition, a sell-off in Japanese equities has also increased yen demand as the yen experiences a similar correlation to its stock markets as in the US. As tensions heat up in the region due to N. Korea, people forget that almost a year ago, N. Korea fired off nuclear test missiles in the direction of Japan. They are a major destabilizing force in the region and the former policies of trying to appease and placate them may have run its course. The yen is fast approaching its 2010 high vs. USD, just above 88.
I call what is taking place in the markets right now the “perfect storm” because there is much uncertainty due to events that can’t be quantified. It is one thing when there is bad economic data for a region or two; however when there are political threats that could potentially cause a war, all bets are off.
And while N. Korea has been known to posture and bluff its position in order to gain, this time it could be different. No one wants to see military action in the region, but N. Korea is such a wild card that no one knows what to expect.
In addition, world recovery has pretty much been driven by Chinese demand and should they slow down, it could affect the nations which have been experiencing economic recovery.
Oh yeah, don’t forget about potential sovereign debt contagion in Spain, which could potentially be a MUCH larger problem than what was seen with Greece.
Meanwhile, everyone rushes to the safety of the US dollar and Japanese yen and both countries government bonds as it is better to earn almost no interest than to lose out entirely.
Are we having fun yet?
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
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Is Spain Next?
By Mike Conlon | May 24, 2010
Over the weekend, the Euro debt crisis took an unexpected turn for the worse as the Spanish central bank took over a savings bank after a planned merger had failed. While in and of itself this is not a big deal, viewing it through the context of overall EU financial health has made the bounce in the Euro short-lived. The Euro is lower again to start the week, as last week’s short-covering rally has been reversed and the longer-term trend for the common currency is still down.
There’s not a ton of market-moving news on tap this week, with GDP figures due out from the UK tomorrow and the US on Thursday. Other than that, there are some smaller events that will provide color to the overall economic picture which will either help re-affirm or correct market sentiment.
Perhaps the biggest news is that US Treasury Secretary Geithner is in China and is advocating that China adopt a more free-floating currency. Because of the Yuan peg to the US dollar, China has been allowed to experience very rapid growth through artificial means that have allowed their goods to remain cheaper around the globe. However, with the crisis in Europe looming, US dollar strength could cause Chinese Yuan strength via the Dollar if the Euro continues its slide. With European austerity measure taking place (Germany included); this could slow world demand which would slow China’s growth as well.
So while there have been some “clues” that perhaps China is ready to make changes to Yuan policy, I’m not certain it will take place if their economy slows due to slower exports as a result of a strong dollar buoyed by risk-aversion and global austerity.
This all adds up to risk-aversion in the market today in a continuation of the major trends, but it’s possible that we could see a reversal as US markets open for the week.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower on risk-aversion as fears out of the EU and a potential slowdown in China are reducing demand for higher-yielding assets. The Aussie is the worst performer this month, down some 10% vs. the US dollar as risk aversion has dominated the marketplace.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie, on the other hand, is showing strength this morning as oil is back in the $70 range, showing signs that we may get a reversal this morning. The Loonie is not really a carry trade destination as it doesn’t provide the yield differential of the Aussie or Kiwi; however it is affected by commodity prices (particularly oil). The Canadian rate decision is due out in early June so there still is some speculation that they could be the next to hike.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower for the same reasons as the Aussie, getting hit a bit harder as it does not have as great a rate differential as the Aussie. Same risk, less reward. However, should the markets begin to stabilize, then we could see the Kiwi move faster to the upside.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower as the bank of Spain took over a regional lender causing investors to question whether or not the debt crisis is spreading. There has been a major property bubble in Spain so many banks are holding bad debt which could come to the surface if Spain needs to access the bailout money to stabilize its banks. In addition, Germany has adopted its own austerity measures, essentially trying to lead by example. Considering that the market is looking for any excuse to sell the Euro, expect the longer-term downtrend to continue. The Euro is lower across the board.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning going into tomorrow’s GDP reading as the UK is walking a fine line between trying to grow its economy without incurring inflation, and cutting its public debt. The new government announced 6 billion Pounds in spending cuts in hope of sending a “shock-wave” through government departments. While not an enviable position to be in (although EU members may disagree), the government feels these actions are necessary to avoid its own sovereign debt crisis.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar has been higher on risk themes, and US existing home sales are due out later this morning. Consumer confidence figures are due on Tuesday, followed by US GDP on Thursday. These figures will show whether or not the US economy has been jump-started enough to sustain recovery in light of the EU debt crisis and could send fears of further problems down the road. Expect the Dollar receive support through flight to safety trades if risk-aversion remains high.
Yen (JPY): The government in Japan said that the economy is picking up steadily leaving its assessment unchanged for a second month in a policy statement today from its monthly economic report. However, growth in Japan has been driven by world demand and stimulus measures, so it is not a self-sustained recovery. Like the Dollar, expect the Yen to trade on risk themes until at least Thursday, when a slew of economic data points are due out.
Will overnight risk be counter-acted by the US markets today? Stock markets are opening lower, though commodities are trading higher. Risk in the overnight session can sometimes be overcome by decent news from the US. Existing home sales could be that number if they come in better than expected.
So while the overall mood of the market has been risk-aversion for some time, any pockets of economic strength could help stabilize the situation and perhaps show signs of recovery.
Until that time, expect continued selling of the Euro which will have an effect over all other markets as historical correlations begin to break down.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Too Much Debt!
By Mike Conlon | April 22, 2010
Well, it turns out that that the economic situation may be worse than expected in Greece as budget deficits came in at 13.6% of GDP, higher than the forecast of 12.9%. While this is not a good number, turns out it is not even the worst in the region. Ireland’s budget deficit is at 14.3%. So why all of the hoopla about Greece if Ireland is in worse shape?
Well, the Irish were pro-active in instituting austerity measures and its citizens are not striking in the streets. So it seems an almost certainty that Greece will be tapping into the rescue plan, now the devil is in the details. As can be expected, the Euro is lower across the board and invoking some risk aversion today.
However, we have some fairly good news out of Australia and New Zealand, and those currencies are hanging in there and actually showing gains despite the risk aversion.
US jobless claims missed estimates marginally, but are lower than last month in a sign that they are moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is slightly lower this morning as the market is beginning to price in another interest rate hike. The wild-card here is what is going to happen with China, as the IMF is now jumping into the mix and calling for Yuan appreciation.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is slightly lower, taking its cues from oil which is down this morning to just below $83. A reading of leading indicators came in better than expected, and the market is expecting that the BOC will move on rates sooner but at a slower pace, despite the “conditional commitment” to keep rates unchanged until July.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher this morning as consumer confidence figures remain unchanged in a sign that hopes of an economic rebound have not been abandoned just yet. In addition, the Finance Minister came out in a statement that said the economy is recovering “slightly more strongly” than the last reading in December which could put the prospect of rate hikes back into the mix. The IMF also upped its growth estimates to 2.9% from a previous estimate of 2.1%.
Euro (EUR): Expect the Euro to trade lower until the exact terms of the Greek bailout hit the market. If anyone cares, EU manufacturing numbers came in slightly better than expected, showing signs that all hope is not lost in the EU. But the obvious elephant in the room is the Greek bailout so a wait and see approach is appropriate until a resolution is announced.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is giving back some recent gains as public borrowing jumps to its highest levels ever. Retail sales figures came in slightly lower than expected, but not enough to warrant a major move. Mortgage approvals were higher, indicating that the housing may be beginning to stabilize. And lastly, business optimism figures came in better than expected so all in all this news is a wash. So when in doubt, call it a “technical pullback”. The sentiment is still positive for the Pound, outside of general risk aversion.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly higher, especially vs. the Euro and Pound but trading lower than Yen as risk aversion is prevalent to start the day. Initial jobless claims missed estimates slightly, and the market is waiting for existing home sales later this morning. PPI figures came in and rose higher than expected to .7% although only slightly higher. At this point growth appears to be outpacing inflation so it looks like the Fed won’t have to move on rates any time soon.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is higher this morning as risk aversion is causing some carry trades to be taken off the table, though not in a major way. The IMF came out and said it expects deflation to persist and that Japan may need to take additional accommodative measures. So expect Yen weakness in the long-term and use short-term risk aversion as a way to establish carry trades. Provided a major risk event doesn’t occur such as a Euro collapse.
Another day, another dollar as the saying goes. Until all of the cards are on the table regarding Greece, expect the Euro to trade lower. Especially if contagion to the other PIIGS countries looks probable. The lower the Euro goes, expect risk-aversion to get stronger.
This means we could see near-term Dollar and Yen strength, despite the “good” economic stories coming from the commodity currencies. Carry traders use risk events to buy higher yielding currencies on pullbacks.
If you think about it, the interest rate differentials act as almost like a stop-loss mechanism. For example, if you enter into a carry trade and buy AUD/JPY you stand to earn 4.15% interest (4.25%- .1% interest rates) on roll-over day (Wednesdays). This means you could sustain a loss of less than 4.15% on a long position of this pair and still make money! This is a simplistic example for illustrative purposes only, but you get the idea.
This is why the forex market has become so popular as there are many different ways to make money!
Isn’t it time you found about more about this market?
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Existing Home Sales, Better than Expected @ 4.72 Million Homes Sold!
By Sean Hyman | March 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales, Better than Expected @ 4.72 Million Homes Sold!
The Dollar liked it and so far, so have many of the yen crosses too (NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, etc.).
The euro got hammered once again today upon the news!
Sean Hyman
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Don’t Forget: Existing Home Sales Come out at 10am EST Today!
By Sean Hyman | March 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales out at 10am EST!
Last time there were 4.49 million homes sold. The expectations for today’s reading is for 4.45 million homes to be sold. See where the numbers come in at on: http://www.forexfactory.com or http://www.dailyfx.com .
This housing number could greatly affect the U.S. dollar.
Also, Tim Geithner is speaking right now too. So be watching for what he says. A lot of times, you can pick up what he’s saying on marketwatch.com under their headlines section: http://www.marketwatch.com/search/default.aspx?mktwd=0&otherd=0&query=1&s0=&i0=5&tab=0&d=954219924.954211799&sd=633733959600000000&ed=633733924200000000&close=&y=83&__EVENTTARGET=SearchButton&__EVENTARGUMENT=&__LASTFOCUS=&ft=0&__VIEWSTATE=&adv=1&subi=5&_ctl84=Enter+Symbol(s)+or+Keyword(s)&SearchType=search&value=U.S+Treasury&mode=Keyword?=RealTime+Headlines&ex=&rpp=50&cs=on&emm=mm&edd=dd&eyy=yyyy
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