Unusually Uncertain!
By Mike Conlon | July 22, 2010
Those were the comments that were made by Fed Chairman Bernanke at yesterday’s testimony to Congress in describing his current view of the economy. This sent the market into a bit of tizzy, causing a sell-off in stocks and creating Dollar strength.
However this morning the markets are riding higher on the back of good US corporate earnings and better than expected European economic data. While stocks have been volatile lately, investors are starting to come around to realize that stocks may be the only chance they have to see gains in their portfolios as bonds are paying next to nothing.
That is investors who are unaware of the forex market. Those of you who have been following this blog know that the currency market offers added protection against downside risk and allows you to diversify into the economic story of other countries.
In Europe, stronger than expected PMI and industrial new orders data have helped the Euro rebound from yesterday’s lows. This all adds up to risk-taking in the market ahead of tomorrow’s release of the results of the European bank stress tests.
In the UK, retail sales figures came in better than expected and US jobless claims are due out at 8:30 AM EST.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking despite the fact that business confidence figures declined for the third straight month.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher much like the Aussie but has the added benefits of comments from the finance Minister who stated that he is seeing signs of economic rebalancing. The tradables sector expanded 3.4%, negating declining consumer confidence figures which were down 5.2%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is somewhat mixed today as oil is higher following risk taking themes. However the market is a tad hesitant as concerns over US growth could affect Canada more than the other commodity currencies. This is evidenced by Euro strength vs. the Loonie. BOC Governor Carney is due to speak today and there is some speculation that he may back away from the dovish comments which accompanied the most recent rate hike.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher this morning as better than expected industrial orders and PMI data show signs of economic growth. This comes a day in advance of the bank stress tests, which is currently expected to project further Euro strength and not weakness. Something interesting to note is that China has been European debt despite the risks which shows that perhaps they favor the European plan of austerity over the US plan of extend and pretend.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is trading as would be expected on a risk taking day. In addition, household spending figures showed an increase of .7% vs. the expectation of .5%, and retail sales ex auto came in at 1% vs. an expectation of .6%. This may cause the BOE to re-think policy if inflation does not fall back below 3%.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is the whipping boy today as Bernanke basically told the world that the US economy stinks in no uncertain terms. This morning, jobless claims came in higher than expected at 464K vs. and expectation of 445K. Existing home sales and the house price index are due out later this morning but I don’t expect those figures to be encouraging either.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly lower though trading higher against the Dollar, despite the fact that the rhetoric is starting to pick up from various ministers who are concerned about Yen strength. The Japanese are known to intervene in their currency but at this point the market does not care as the US dollar is clearly the least desirable currency.
Well short of calling Bernanke “Captain Obvious”; no kidding that US economic prospects are “uncertain”. However I don’t know why he thinks it is “unusual”. Let’s face it, Bernanke is more of a history buff than forward-thinker, and perhaps his reliance on his study of the Great Depression has led him astray.
World economies couldn’t be more different today than they were some 70 years ago. To think that because the economy is not behaving like you thought it would based on interpretation of an event that occurred so long ago is borderline stupidity.
Here’s some certainty for ya Ben: encourage this administration to stop the profligate spending! Economies around the globe have decided to cut the fat and take their medicine; it’s a shame that US politicians don’t have the same political backbone.
This is akin to saying that it is unhealthy for a person to lose 50 pounds. While this would be true for a 100 pound woman, it most certainly would NOT be for a woman who weighed twice that amount.
And that is the problem that we have in the US today folks—that when politicians look in the mirror, they can’t recognize that we are obese! It’s like reverse economic anorexia!
It’s time to cut the fat here in the US, starting with our politicians and this administration. Trying to maintain an unhealthy weight is, well unhealthy.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, bank, Bernanke, blog, BOE, cad, canada, China, comments, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, depression, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, existing, fed, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, Il, index, interest, intervene, invest, investor, IRA, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, mie, Mike Conlon, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate, release, retail sales, RSI, short, ssi, stock, stocks, time, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Who’s Stressed?
By Mike Conlon | July 21, 2010
Well apparently it’s not the ECB. However the market is a bit more concerned about the results of the bank stress tests which are due out on Friday. The Euro is lower this morning as ECB President Trichet is having a “behind closed doors” meeting with the banks in question today, presumably to get everyone on the same page when the results are released.
This is causing a mild bout of risk-aversion, as there is some concern that perhaps they are working on how to “spin” the results, which may not be as rosy as they have been saying. Or it could just be much ado about nothing.
Earlier today, the Bank of England released the minutes of its policy rate policy meeting which showed a heightened concern about UK inflation. This provided the Pound with a bit of a bounce, but it gave back gains as the ECB meeting came more into focus.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is going to speak later today and is expected to maintain a dovish interest rate stance, which could put further pressure on USD/JPY as the Dollar weakens vs. the Yen.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly lower this morning as mild risk-aversion is causing some selling in all pairs but the Euro and Pound. CPI data due out will provide more clarity into whether or not the RBA will consider a rate hike next month, assuming the European banks “pass” the stress tests.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is actually sporting some strength this morning despite the mild risk aversion as year over year credit card spending increased for the third month in a row. While I’m not necessarily sure this is a good thing—the Kiwi is higher against USD.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning after yesterday’s rate hike despite the dovish comments from the BOC which initially sent the Loonie lower yesterday. In addition, oil is higher to around 78.50, providing a bid to the Loonie.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower across the board in advance of the stress tests as today’s ECB meeting is causing some traders concern. Today’s meeting is most likely to just provide a unified response to the stress tests as they don’t want anyone going “rogue”. So while some might feel this is because the results may be less than desired, I feel it is more of a coordinated action plan which unfortunately is necessary as the slightest misconstrued comment could send the markets reeling.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is giving back some earlier gains and has gone mostly negative as the market is focused on the ECB meeting taking place. This is causing some risk-aversion to start the day despite the fact the BOE policy meeting minutes showed that there is a heightened concern for inflation. At this point, they are not sure how higher taxes and austerity measures are going to affect prices going forward, but a policy adjustment may be in order if CPI data remains above the target range.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mixed today in advance of Bernanke’s speech later today which is all but guaranteed to remain dovish regarding interest rate policy. The Dollar is catching a bit of a safe-haven bid; though it is lower vs. the Loonie and Kiwi as the birds are showing strength this morning.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is showing strength across the board going into the Euro bank stress tests as demand for carry trades has weakened.
We were bound to see some Euro weakness going into the stress tests as the market is unsure of what to expect. While all of the chatter leading up to the meeting has been positive, there is still reason for concern.
Today’s private meeting has led some in the market to believe that they are attempting to “spin” the news, however I think it’s probably more of forming a plan to provide one clear, concise message.
The Euro has seen good gains over the last 6 weeks as we no longer hear chatter about Euro-Dollar parity. It is no secret that A LOT of banks have problems, both in the Euro zone and elsewhere, so this really should be a non-event.
Nevertheless, in todays media-centric gotta have every detail every second society, these tests will picked over with a fine-tooth comb and a microscope.
So it will be interesting to see if both the Euro and Pound can turn it around today after the ECB meeting concludes (with no negative news releases). Stocks markets are higher across the board, and Bernanke will likely contribute to further Dollar weakness today.
Keep an eye on Japan for potential intervention as continued Dollar weakness vs. the Yen is highly undesirable.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, bank, Bernanke, BOE, cad, carr, carry trade, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, ECB, EUR, Euro, Europe, fed, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lot, lower, meeting, Mike Conlon, minutes, news, nzd, oil, pair, pound, practice, practice account, RSI, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, trades, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
“Slowing” Growth!
By Mike Conlon | July 15, 2010
Overnight, the Chinese reported less than expected GDP figures; however before you worry about the Chinese economy, note that growth slowed to 10.3%. That’s right, growth above 10%. By contrast, most other global economies are struggling to reach 3% growth.
In addition, in Japan the BOJ left rates unchanged at .1%, citing forecasts that growth will slow as fiscal stimulus is removed worldwide, thereby affecting global demand.
Across the pond, both the Euro and Pound are trading higher vs. the Dollar as dollar weakness due to continued positive corporate earnings led by JP Morgan are reducing demand for the greenback. In addition, better than expected demand for a Spanish debt issue and lack of bad news has buoyed the Euro to 1.285.
The Aussie and the Kiwi are also lower this morning, as fears of a Chinese slowdown reduce expectations for exports. However, 10% growth still looks pretty good to me.
Lastly, the Fed statement yesterday here in the US showed a commitment to maintain rates for as long as is deemed necessary. This is reducing demand for the Dollar ahead of US PPI and CPI figures which are due out today and tomorrow respectively.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower on fears that a Chinese slowdown may soften demand for Australian commodities, despite the fact that demand for safe haven currencies has subsided.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also lower for the same reason as the Aussie; however the NZ manufacturing index expanded at a faster than expected pace. Tomorrow NZ will report CPI data which will show whether inflation is tame or not and may influence the market’s expectation of a rate hike.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower on concerns about demand for commodities, despite the fact that oil is trading marginally higher. The BOC rate decision is due out next Wednesday, which may bring a rate hike should policy makers fear that inflation may come in higher.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher across the board, as the lack of bad news has emboldened traders as a series of successful debt auctions have provided confidence to the marketplace. In addition, the ECB maintained that interest rates are appropriate and they expect to see moderate growth.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is also mostly higher this morning and reached a high of 1.537 vs. USD as Chancellor Osborne said he does not expect banks to need additional support and cited austerity measures as a main reason. However, the BOE has still maintained a dovish outlook for future policy.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower today as PPI figures came in at -.5% vs. an expectation of -.1%. This shows that prices are declining faster and may, in conjunction with tomorrow’s CPI data, show that deflation is firmly in hand. Initial jobless claims came in less than expected, with 429K new claims vs. an expectation of 450K. Corporate earnings have been good so far, but may not be enough to hold up stocks as the futures are giving back earlier gains.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is surprisingly strong this morning as it looks like US data may be moving the market toward risk-aversion. The BOJ policy meeting still showed a cautious outlook and recent Yen strength could pose a threat to Japanese exports, the leading driver of economic growth.
While Chinese growth may be “slowing”, it is hard to argue that 10% is nothing short of remarkable. However, when one considers that it is Chinese growth that is driving the world economy right now, there is concern that a lack of global demand could cause further reductions.
In the US, it looks like deflation is winning the battle as the government’s attempts to maintain higher prices may have been misguided. While deflation is a problem, let’s consider for a moment that Japan has been experiencing it for the last 20 years.
While I am hoping that policy-makers can avoid a Japan-style economic malaise, I have my doubts currently. The government is just about out of magic bullets to help maintain prices as interest rates cannot get much lower.
The problem with the economy right now is not that there is a lack of demand, but rather an over-supply of homes, goods, and services. As the economy reached the asset bubble that became known as the Great Recession, government policy to attempt to keep prices high only served to help bank balance sheets. While this may have prevented a total collapse of the financial system (still up for debate), now is the time to pursue pro-business policies that will help bring new money to the US economy to increase demand as supply clears.
On the plus side, at least it was “only” 429K losing jobs last time, it could have been much worse. So let’s just hope that China will continue to grow, as it looks like the US may be done for a while. Dollar weakness is evidence of this.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, BOE, cad, China, commodities, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, ECB, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fear, fed, financial, flu, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, greenback, home, Il, index, interest, interest rate, interest rates, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, meeting, mie, Mike Conlon, money, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, recession, RSI, short, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Hungry for Risk!
By Mike Conlon | July 6, 2010
After last week’s sell-off in world markets, investors are feeling more confident about economic prospects as the US markets return from the holiday weekend. Bank stress tests in Europe are intended to show transparency, and EU leaders are “banking on” hopes that the balance sheets are not as bad as previously thought.
Overnight, the RBA left interest rates unchanged in Australia, but signs that inflation (particularly home prices) may be rising is giving the Aussie a boost this morning.
World stock markets are higher this morning, as stock earnings season is almost upon us. There is a common notion that stocks may offer the best chance for growth despite the fact that world economies are putting on the brakes and trying to curb spending.
There is no major news on tap for the US in this shortened week, but we’ll get GDP figures from the Euro zone, as well as the UK rate decision on Thursday.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking despite the fact that the RBA left interest rates unchanged. The RBA did say that consumer spending and business investment are expanding, and they may be in the middle of a housing bubble due to housing shortages. This could foreshadow further rate hikes to come.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also higher as risk appetite is back to start the week, despite the fact that business confidence figures have fallen as domestic demand slowed. Nevertheless, the market is betting that the next rate hikes will come from New Zealand, as they attempt to thwart inflation. However, the RBNZ has been cautious as economic growth and inflation may not accelerate as quickly as expected.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher as oil prices are higher for the first time in 6 days as risk appetite is returning to the market. Canada’s employment report on Friday will show whether or not the economy is improving, but speculators have pared back expectations of a rate hike at the next policy meeting.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is also higher as comments from various officials regarding the bank stress tests have allayed market fears—for now. EU GDP figures are due out tomorrow, with CPI figures to follow on Friday. The market is expecting tepid growth despite the austerity measures various governments are undertaking to get deficits under control.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed this morning trading lower vs. the risk currencies but higher against USD and Yen. The UK rate policy decision is due on Thursday, and no change is expected. The market is still reacting favorably to the UK budget cuts, however only time will tell if the economy is strong enough to support such measures.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower this morning (but up against Yen) in a week that is light on news out of the US. Comments from various Fed officials will likely be insignificant, and US stock earnings season kicks off next week.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is lower this morning on a classic risk-taking day as carry traders look to re-establish positions. Japanese stocks rallied overnight as a rally in Chinese stocks gave the market direction.
Most of the news that the market has received lately has been negative, yet so far the markets have been behaving resiliently. With not much news on the docket this week, the market will have time to adjust to the notion that we may be seeing slower, but steadier growth.
Next week will kick off earnings of US companies, and they are likely to be positive despite the economic slowdown. Right now, there is uncertainty as to where is the best place for investors to park their money, with fixed income investments paying little to no interest.
That is one of the reasons why the currency market has become one of the fastest growing markets for investors, as it provides alternate opportunities and a chance to benefit from global economic conditions.
Investors have been reaping the benefits that the currency market has provided for some time; isn’t time you join them? There is no time like the present; and if world economic conditions continue to behave as they have recently, the currency market should continue to flourish.
There is always a bull market somewhere in currencies; the trick is knowing where!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, canada, carr, carry trade, comments, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, fed, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, holiday, home, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, meeting, mie, Mike Conlon, money, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, short, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, trick, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Chinese Slowdown To Derail Recovery?
By Mike Conlon | July 1, 2010
Overnight, manufacturing growth slowed in China more than expected as the Chinese look to curtail inflation and their housing market. While the market views this as negative, China has been expanding at a break-neck pace and my opinion that slower, more sustainable growth should be welcome.
However, this spotlights the reduction in world demand as economies pare back to combat deficits and economic uncertainty and lack of confidence is causing consumers to reduce consumption.
In the UK, industrial production figures show a slight drop from the previous month, however in Japan, the Tankan manufacturing confidence figures fell less than expected.
Retail sales figures were lower in both Australia and Germany, though German manufacturing numbers were in line with expectations.
In the Euro zone, a successful bond auction from Spain countered yesterday’s news that Moody’s ratings agency was putting Spain’s AAA credit rating under review.
And lastly, in the US, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, showing 472K vs. an expectation of 460K. This does not bode well for tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report, though it could be setting us up for a surprise to the upside.
So this morning we are seeing US dollar weakness, and Euro and Yen strength.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower this morning as retail sales figures and building permits declined giving investors’ reason to believe that Australia may be finished with rate hikes for the rest of the year.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower this morning as the global slowdown and the news out of China is putting pressure on the currency.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower as oil is down, but it is trading higher vs. the Dollar. Yesterday’s GDP figures caused selling in the Loonie and today Dollar weakness is paring some of those losses.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher across the board as a successful bond auction in Spain is giving the market confidence that the banking situation may not be as bad as expected. In about three weeks’ time, the results of the bank stress tests will be in and that will show the true health of Euro zone banks.
Pound (GBP): The pound is mixed this morning, trading back over 1.50 vs. USD despite the fact that manufacturing figures came in slightly lower than last month but in line with expectations. At this point, there is more confidence in the measures the UK is taking with regard to its finances than what is happening in the US, and this is reflected in recent Pound strength vs. the Dollar.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower across the board as jobless claims came in higher than expected showing that the employment picture is not getting better. In addition, uncertainty over the financial regulation bill is causing trepidation, but overall the economy is still moving forward despite the employment picture. According to Alan Greenspan, our former Fed chief, this is a “normal slowdown” within the greater context of recovery.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is showing strength this morning though giving back some earlier gains. The Nikkei was down 2% last night, providing the Yen with a bid. The Chinese slowdown as caused the un-wind of carry trades, and the Yen is trading at a 6-month high vs. the Dollar.
As I mentioned yesterday, the only thing that matters here in the US is jobs. The employment picture is not improving and tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report had better be decent or we could see a sell-off going into the long 4th of July holiday weekend.
I hate to continue to harp on policy here in the US, but there is a distinct divide in the economy. To put it bluntly, you have those that receive government hand-outs and those that eventually pay for it. One group is productive, the other isn’t.
Congressional plans to extend unemployment benefits are one such problem. While I feel badly for those unable to find work, at some point you have to lower your expectations and regroup. Because unemployment benefits are essentially equal to minimum wage, there is a disincentive to get off of the couch and work.
In addition, the financial regulation bill (which in my opinion is absolutely needed), has missed the mark. Two major problems that caused the financial mess have gone largely untouched (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Instead we’re going to get a bunch of rules and a business climate that is deemed unfriendly to business, which will help perpetuate the cycle of unemployment. Add future tax hikes to the mix and you can see where this is going. When it comes time for investors to decide where to invest their money, are they going to choose countries that are making an effort to return to fiscal responsibility, or the country with a blatant disregard for it?
I know what I would do. Hopefully, you do too!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, carr, carry trade, China, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fed, financial, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, holiday, housing market, Il, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, mie, Mike Conlon, money, news, nzd, oil, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, rate, retail sales, setting, spot, ssi, time, trade, trades, unemployment, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Be Careful What You Wish For!
By Mike Conlon | June 25, 2010
Overnight, the US Congress unexpectedly came to a deal and has agreed on bill regarding financial reform and regulation. The uncertainty surrounding this bill has been weighing on the markets, as it was unclear what the outcome might be.
As news trickles out of the 2000+ page document and what it means for the banks and the market in general, at least the uncertainty has been removed. Uncertainty= volatility. Now, whether or not this bill will actually accomplish what it is intended to remains to be seen. What my experience tells me is that no matter what is in the bill; Wall St. has already prepared for likely scenarios and has already devised ways to circumvent regulation. In addition, enacting legislation of this magnitude always comes at a cost, and the brunt of that cost is likely to be paid for by consumers, and not the banks themselves. Banks will simply pass through the new cost so that executives can still buy beach houses. If you don’t believe this will happen, take a look at bank stocks that are trading higher in the pre-market.
This comes ahead of this weekend’s G-20 meeting, where the US will push other nations to consider enacting similar reform.
Economic data is out showing that US GDP grew 2.7%, vs. an expectation of 3% and personal consumption figures were at 3% vs. an expectation of 3.5%. This falls in line with what the Fed said the other day that we are seeing growth, albeit moderate.
Overnight, Japanese CPI figures came in at -.9% vs. -1.1% showing signs that deflation may be subsiding.
The market started out in risk taking mode, but it appears that may be reversing.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): New Australian PM Gillard has backed away from the mining tax that was the eventual downfall of her predecessor and is open to discussion and negotiation. The tax was largely seen as anti-investment in one of Australia’s biggest industries.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower despite a widening trade balance surplus but the market is concerned about a potential Chinese slowdown which could hamper demand for exports. However, this figure fell short of expectations (814M vs. 850M).
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning as its major trading partner (the US) appears to be the only country not entertaining the idea of reduced spending. Unlike the other commodity currencies which are more tied to China, expect the Loonie to benefit as long as the US maintains its spending spree.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower continuing the trend of heightened fear from the debt crisis. Today marks the fourth day in a row that European stocks are lower as we head into the G-20 weekend.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed this morning and it will be interesting to see what (if anything) comes out of the G-20 meeting. The UK “tax and axe” strategy is diametrically opposed to the US strategy of “spend, extend, and pretend”.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is somewhat mixed today as the market figures out exactly what this new financial regulation means. In addition, GDP figures were lower than expectations, but showed that growth, while moderate, is occurring.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is higher this morning, as CPI data showed that deflation came in less than expected. In addition, minutes from the rate policy meeting showed that there was actually talk of inflation. The Nikkei was down overnight, and speculation that the G-20 will not come to a consensus over global economic policy has strengthened demand for the safe-haven of the Yen.
All of my years on Wall St. have taught me one thing: that politicians in Washington DC cannot compete with the brainpower of Wall St. Today, champagne is flowing as the uncertainty over the worst-case scenario from financial regulation has been lifted. True, this isn’t a “home-run” for Wall St.; but I can tell you that they have been prepared for EVERY possible scenario to come out of this and already have plans in place to line their pockets at the expense of the general public.
While regulation is good in theory, it always brings about unintended consequences and in the end it is always the consumer that gets hurt. Now that this is out of the way, the G-20 meeting will be the focus of the weekend but don’t expect anything of substance to come out of it.
The major problem here in the US is jobs. Period. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will show if we are gaining any jobs in the private sector. If this is a bad number, look out below.
So there is potential for risk over the weekend, but my guess is the G-20 will be a non-event.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, China, commodity, course, crisis, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, EUR, Euro, Europe, falls, fear, fed, financial, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, idea, Il, interest, invest, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, meeting, Mike Conlon, minutes, news, nfa, nzd, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, rate, RSI, short, ssi, stock, stocks, strategy, time, trade, trend, trick, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
BOE Not Unanimous!
By Mike Conlon | June 23, 2010
Minutes released from the Bank of England’s rate policy meeting showed that the vote was not unanimous to keep rates unchanged at .5%, for the first time in nearly 7 months. Inflation concerns were the cause of the dissenting vote, as CPI figures in the UK have been above targets. While the BOE expects inflation to subside in the ensuing months, that may not necessarily be the case.
This comes a day after the emergency budget which was announced yesterday, calling for a reduction in spending and an increase in taxes.
In the US, the FOMC rate decision is due out later today, so expect to see some volatility in dollar-related pairs. It is widely held that there will not be a change in policy, but some market participants are betting that we may see a change in the language regarding policy. This would give credence to the rising sentiment that the Fed may raise rates later this year. Personally, I don’t see this happening and I think the Fed will be on hold for the remainder of the year.
Yesterday’s abysmal housing data confirmed that deflationary forces in the housing market may be the start of another leg down.
In the Euro zone, German consumer confidence came in slightly better than expected and PMI figures were largely in line. However, concerns over Greek debt have perked up again.
Overnight, the Yen was higher as the Nikkei was down taking its cues from yesterday’s sell-off in the US stock market.
This morning will bring US new home sales figures as well as Canadian retail sales figures. Any major deviations could send the respective currencies lower.
But expect volatility going into the FOMC announcement at 2:15 EST.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower as stocks sold-off in the overnight session but it is gaining back some ground heading into the US session. Risk aversion has driven the Aussie lower, and there is some concern that Chinese demand for metals and energy is causing a rift in the Australian economy.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher this morning in anticipation of GDP figures which are due out later tonight. The expectation of .5% growth will likely be exceeded as demand from China for raw materials has the NZ economy picking up steam. Should the number best expectations, then the likelihood of a rate increase at July’s policy meeting will increase.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower this morning as oil prices are pulling back from the $78 level, and retail sales figures came in worse than expected. Analysts were expecting a decline of .4% and the figure showed a decline of 2.2%, a big miss. Canada is to the US what Australia and New Zealand are to China. If recovery here in the US is floundering, then it may not bode well for the Loonie and the Canadian economy in general.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is a mixed bag this morning, as it is up against the North American currencies but down against the rest. The EU is considering a bond levy on countries that don’t adhere to debt-to-GDP guidelines which of course brings the Greek debt crisis back to center stage. In addition, business confidence was down in France, though consumer confidence was higher in Germany. Go figure.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher across the board, giving a vote of confidence to both the government for their budget and the BOE. The lone dissenter in the rate policy meeting is concerned about inflation, as growth targets may exceed expectations. That’s a “nice” problem to have, considering the economic condition of the US.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower prior to today’s FOMC meeting. Yesterday’s poor housing data sent stocks lower, and today’s new home sales aren’t expected to be much better. This should be enough to keep the Fed unchanged in both language and policy, and the market is starting to catch on to the fact that the smoke and mirrors of government spending may not be enough to stoke the economy. Go back and take a look at my discussion of biflation from a few days ago.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mixed as well, trading higher vs. USD and CAD (both showing weakness) and the Euro (debt concerns) but lower vs. GBP, AUD, and NZD. So today can neither be classified as risk-taking or risk-aversion, but much of the yen strength was derived from weakness in the Nikkei, which sold off following the US stock market decline.
I think today really shows the difference to how the market reacts to different policy pursuits from around the globe heading into this weekend’s G-20 meeting. On the one hand, you have the EU and the UK who are committed to reducing deficits and trying not to raise taxes too much to discourage business (in fact the corporate tax rate was lowered in the UK), and the policies taken by the US.
The US is going the other way, expanding deficits and throwing good money after bad at our financial problems which can only result in higher taxes when it comes time to pay the piper. President Obama was rebuffed by Chancellor Merkel of Germany with regard to how to best combat the global financial crisis, and it appears as though the market agrees with the EU.
Weak housing data here in the US show that the stimulative effects of government spending may have slowed a decline in the economy, but have not fixed the problem. Now taxpayers (and their children and grandchildren) face an enormous burden for what adds up to temporary conditions.
The change people voted for was for less government spending and indeed we’re seeing change—even more and more spending! Hopefully this course can be reversed before it’s too late. I never thought I’d say this but now is the time we should be taking our economic cues from Europe, and not their prior policies that landed them in this mess.
Those who don’t learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, BOE, cad, canada, China, course, crisis, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fed, financial, forex, forex market, franc, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, housing market, Il, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, meeting, Mike Conlon, minutes, money, new zealand, nzd, oil, pair, pairs, pip, pound, practice, practice account, rate, rate decision, release, retail sales, RSI, sentiment, ssi, stock, stocks, time, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
What Is Biflation?
By Mike Conlon | June 17, 2010
One of the economic terms du jour is biflation, which is a condition marked by both simultaneous inflation and deflation. This is becoming more and more significant as central banks around the globe grapple with how to set policy. Today’s US CPI figure is a perfect example of this.
The US Consumer Price Index showed a decline of .2%, yet the core rate rose .1% which both were in-line with expectations. We are most likely in a condition here in the US where we are going to experience commodity inflation, but housing deflation. It is important to pay attention to how the Fed will react to these figures. For years we heard that there was no inflation, yet every time you went to the gas station, you thought differently. You aren’t crazy; we’re experiencing biflation.
Retail sales figures in the UK advanced, though analysts are attributing it to the rise in sales of flat-screen TVs due to the World Cup. While yes, the Brits are crazy about their team, I think there is probably a little more to the story than just soccer.
The Euro is higher as well after a bond auction in Spain which sold the maximum set for auction. This flies in the face of the rumor about Spain setting up an emergency credit line, as the market devoured this offering showing confidence in the Spain and the Euro zone.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie has started lower this morning despite some risk-taking in the market. It is higher vs. USD, but lagging JPY. The latter trade could reverse today and was possibly a function of Asian stocks (particularly the Nikkei) being down today. In addition, the RBA said that they would likely only raise rates one more time this year, giving investors a reason to turn elsewhere.
Kiwi (NZD): So the Aussie’s loss is the Kiwi’s gain, despite consumer confidence figures which fell 3.2%. Nevertheless, the Kiwi is higher on initial risk appetite in the market.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower this morning taking its cues from oil, as it so often does. Oil is “lower” to $77.25, off yesterday’s highs of just under $78. In addition, Canadian wholesale sales fell .3%, vs. an expectation of a rise of .3%. So the Loonie is weaker across the board despite some of the risk appetite.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher this morning as a successful bond auction from Spain put rumors to bed and showed renewed confidence in the Euro zone.
Pound (GBP): Retails sales came in better than expected at .5% vs. an expectation of .1%, which is being attributed to World Cup soccer. However, I believe the economic story in the UK is a good one, as recovery and confidence in the new government is bolstering growth. In addition, the BOE said that they would most likely raise rates before selling bonds when they remove economic stimulus.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is weaker this morning as CPI fell, but was in line with expectations. In addition, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, posting a gain of 472K vs. an expectation of 450K. However, stock futures are higher as the market is becoming more conditioned to biflation, and increased jobless claims are almost an afterthought.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mixed this morning, starting higher because the Nikkei was lower, but giving back gains as risk appetite is increasing. However, US dollar weakness vs. the Yen is apparent as the focus is off of North America (USD, CAD) this morning.
This morning is a bit of a mixed bag, with the market taking its cues from Europe and selling North America. Good news in the Euro zone and the UK are propelling those currencies higher, and stocks are initially higher here in the US as the market shrugs off deflationary numbers and a bad unemployment report.
The reason the CPI data doesn’t seem as important is because the market is getting used to the notion of biflation. I used to discuss this issue as the “tale of two economies”, but I suppose this term just tidies things up. However it will become important to both consumers and investors alike as this condition becomes more apparent.
However, I suspect we could see a US stock market sell-off today, as the market isn’t quite sure what to make of this.
Until then, take advantage of the market volatility!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, bank, BOE, cad, central bank, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, EUR, Euro, Europe, fed, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, index, invest, investor, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, market volatility, mie, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate, retail sales, setting, ssi, station, stock, stocks, time, trade, unemployment, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Ban The Shorts!
By Mike Conlon | June 9, 2010
Both France and Germany have called on the EU to ban short-selling on certain stocks and government bonds with the intention to curb speculation in the market. While I am never a fan of this type of regulation, there does need to be some sort of “fix” for the market as speculation has gotten a little out of hand.
However, there are always unintended consequences to this type of action, and this could end up hurting their ability to raise capital. This could also hurt the forex market, as Euro-related pairs lack the volume to trade orderly. Nevertheless, there still is a ton of risk related to the Euro, with sovereign debt defaults the primary driver.
In addition, ECB President Trichet helped push the Euro higher with comments on the state of the Euro. As I mentioned yesterday, expect the game of “show and tell” to pick up, with officials telling us how great everything is but showing us little.
Also today, the US Fed Beige Book report comes out, with Bernanke expected to echo his comments from the other night.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): Consumer confidence fell for the 3rd straight month down under, nevertheless the Aussie is higher on risk appetite. Fears of a global slowdown (particularly in China) and the raising of interest rates have added to the sentiment that the economy will slow in Australia.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher this morning as oil prices have bounced higher and equity futures are set to open higher on risk-taking in the market.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher ahead of its interest rate policy meeting tomorrow, where the market is anticipating a 75% chance that the RBNZ will raise rates 25bp to 2.75%. Put me in the camp that is betting against the rate hike, as I feel the NZ economy rides on the coattails of Australia, and that the risk in the market may be too great to warrant a hike just yet.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning, trading higher against the safe-haven currencies, but lower against the commodity currencies. Comments from the ECB have helped push the Euro higher slightly, but let’s not forget about the huge risk the Euro poses as they struggle to get their fiscal houses in order.
Pound (GBP): The Pound has a bid this morning after a 4-day decline as investors seems more confident in the UK’s ability to combat their fiscal woes, much more so than the EU. The UK trade balance missed estimates, but narrowed from last month’s reading.
Dollar (USD): Today we get “Fedspeak”, as Bernanke gives his beige book report to Congress. I do not expect any change in language from the Fed Chief, and at this point I’m guessing that we will not see a rate hike this year. The Dollar has been higher this year on the flight to safety trade, and at this point I believe that inflation is a non-issue.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is lower this morning as risk-taking inspired carry trades are taking place ahead of the New Zealand rate decision. Japan will report its own GDP figures tomorrow, which are expected to show moderate but steady growth. In addition, new Finance Minister Noda said he would like to see price gains above 1%, but didn’t make that an “official” inflation target. Japanese deflation has plagued its economy for some time.
As I mentioned yesterday, this is “cheer-leading” week for the various markets, as the lack of hard economic data is supplanted by discussions of various economic situations.
I am always skeptical when it comes to government announcements and prefer to analyze the hard data myself. But with that in mind, you have to pay attention to what they are saying.
As a trader, it is important to trade what you see and not what you think should happen. If Bernanke wants the market to go up, you should play along even if you think the fundamentals don’t match. However, be sure to exit quickly at the first sign of market sentiment change as the market is always right, regardless of what is said.
So pay close attention to the technicals as the various market participants digest the rhetoric.
Do you have a strong grasp of technical analysis?
If not, be sure to check out our affordable currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, analysis, AUD, Aussie, Australia, Bernanke, cad, carr, carry trade, China, comments, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, ECB, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fear, fed, forex, forex market, franc, free, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, meeting, Mike Conlon, new zealand, nzd, oil, pair, pairs, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, sentiment, short, ssi, stock, stocks, technical, time, trade, trader, trades, Trichet, USD, volume, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Big Ben Is Back!
By Mike Conlon | June 8, 2010
Just when you started wondering where are esteemed Fed Chairman has been, Bernanke gave a speech last evening that helped buoy the markets higher. Bernanke re-affirmed that indeed recovery is intact here in the US; though moderate given the depth of the recession. These comments helped send futures higher, and encouraged risk-taking in the forex market.
Across the pond, Fitch ratings agency came out with comments on the UK saying that the UK fiscal challenge is “formidable”. Perhaps this could be viewed as adding “fuel to the fire”, as these comments came a day after the new British PM said basically the same thing. There is speculation in the market that perhaps a UK credit downgrade is looming. The UK emergency budget is due out on June 22 and that should paint a clearer picture.
Meanwhile, the German trade surplus narrowed, though industrial output increased .9%, besting expectations.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking, despite the fact that business confidence fell for the third straight month. Part of this can be attributed to the government’s proposed 40% tax on mining companies as well as Euro zone conditions.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher as well, catching a slight bid from higher oil prices, despite a housing starts number that came in worse than expected. The number came in at 189K vs. an expectation of 202K.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate policy meeting which the market is expecting will bring at 25bp rate hike, raising the official cash rate to 2.75% from a record-low 2.5%. Inflation is expected to pick up which would outweigh any fallout from the Euro debt crisis. However, as mentioned yesterday, most every country is looking for a weaker currency to export their way to prosperity, so a rate hike may induce carry trades which would push the Kiwi higher.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher as there is some risk-taking in the market, though lower vs. the commodity currencies. At this point we all know about the conditions in the Euro zone, so any lack of market-moving news will allow the Euro to drift higher, though without conviction.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning on the Fitch news, despite the fact that retail sales rose .8% compared to a decline of 2.3%. The UK emergency budget will be released on June 22nd, and will provide further clarity to extent of budget cuts the UK may be enacting.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower this morning, as risk appetite has picked up partly because of Bernanke’s comments last night. Tomorrow will bring the Fed’s Beige Book economic report which should be similar to the comments made last evening.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is lower as carry trades have increased due to heightened risk-appetite. In addition, new PM Kan takes over officially and his new cabinet is seen as one that favors budget cuts and a weaker Yen.
There’s not a lot of fundamental data out this week so much of the movement we’re going to see will be based on various comments coming from around the globe. As a result, the markets can move somewhat erratically, as officials attempt to jaw-bone their various currencies.
Most of the comments due out will not provide official numbers, so sometimes they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
However, you can see how comments from a ratings agency can affect a currency like the Pound, just like a quick speech at Washington event can improve markets as well.
Let’s face it, most of these government types are economic cheerleaders; however they all favor a lower currency to encourage exports. So I expect much of the “news” we hear to counter-balance each other out, and some sideways trading to occur as we go into the summer slowdown.
That is, until you hear something from the Euro zone. Because at this point, the less we hear from them, the better!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Bernanke, British, cad, carr, carry trade, comments, commodity, course, crisis, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, EUR, Euro, fed, forex, forex market, free, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lot, lower, market, meeting, Mike Conlon, movement, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, recession, release, retail sales, ssi, time, trade, trades, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »