Federal Reserve’s September Rate Decision
By DailyFX Updates | August 30, 2007
All eyes are now on the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. Bernanke will be speaking on the state of the housing market, which could play a major role in determining what will happen with interest rates next month. Economists and Fedwatchers are still divided on whether the central bank will actually lower interest rates, but the curve is already pricing in a quarter point cut. Therefore the disappointment will come if the Fed DOESN’T lower rates.
Also don’t forget, every single major central bank will be meeting and announcing their own interest rate decisions BEFORE the Fed. So where currencies move will also be dependent upon who says what first. If the ECB fails to lift interest rates, but suggest that they remain hawkish and could raise rates again in the months to come, it will be bearish for the Euro in the short term but potentially bullish in the medium term especially if the Fed actually lowers US interest rates.
Tags: forex blog, forex news, forex trading
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DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Suffers As Carry Trades Rebound - Will They Turn Tomorrow?
By DailyFX Radio | August 29, 2007
· US Dollar crumbles under pressure as carry trades rebound
· Forex markets likely to remain driven by risk aversion trends, but Thursday’s US GDP data could shake things up
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum
Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM082907.mp3
Tags: carry trade, dailyfx, dollar, forex, forex blog, forex news, fxcm
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Carry Trades Bounce: How Far Could it Extend?
By DailyFX Updates | August 29, 2007
High yielding currencies ranging from the Yen crosses to the New Zealand and Australian dollars have rebounded after yesterday’s sharp losses. Although the rallies are strong, I think that it is highly unlikely that the rallies will extend beyond the August 24/27 highs (depending upon which pairs you look at). Why? Because volume is thin this week and many banks only have junior traders left on their desks. These traders are not likely to take on any new positions and are there just to monitor levels, book trades and watch for stops. Taking on risk is the last thing that senior dealers want their junior dealers to do at this time. As a result, any rebound in carry trades could be limited.
According to the latest FXCM SSI report, open interest increased over the past 24hours as nearly 70% of all USD/JPY positions is to the long side.
Tags: carry trading, forex news, forex trading
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DailyFX Forex Radio - Carry Trade Suffers on Dow Tumbles, Tokyo to Extend Losses?
By DailyFX Radio | August 28, 2007
· US Dollar remains unchanged on FOMC, stock markets tumble on fear
· Forex markets likely to remain driver by risk aversion trends, but Thursday’s US GDP data could shake things up
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum
Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM082807.mp3
Tags: dailyfx, dollar, forex, forex news, forex radio
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DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Gets A Reprieve Amidst Thin Trading - Major Event Risk Ahead
By DailyFX Radio | August 27, 2007
· US Dollar gets a mild bounce amidst thin trading despite weak NAR existing home sales
· Will US house price and consumer confidence data spark wild price action?
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum
Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM082707.mp3
Tags: dailyfx, dollar, forex, forex news
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CAD/JPY Confirming Move Lower, NZD/USD Turn Opportunity
By DailyFX Updates | August 27, 2007
On Friday, we had said that CAD/JPY was running into a brick wall of resistance. Today, we are beginning to see that weakness unfold as we continue to hover below the resistance point. We remain bearish this currency pair for a move down to 108.50 unless we have a break above 111.75.
Although both CAD/JPY and NZD/USD are trading in a similar pattern given the high yield nature of both currency pairs, we are seeing an equally compelling turn opportunity. The following NZD/USD chart shows the currency pair failing right below the 200-day SMA which coincidently (or not so coincidently) is also the 38.2% fibonacci of the most recent bear wave. If the pair closes negative today, we will also have a shooting star, which is a strong reversal formation. I think we top out here for a move down to 70 cents.
Tags: forex news, forex trading, new zealand dollar
Topics: DailyFX.com Updates | 2 Comments »
CADJPY: Running Into a Brick Wall of Resistance
By DailyFX Updates | August 24, 2007
CAD/JPY has had an impressive rally over the past two trading days but right now it is running into a brick wall of resistance. On the daily charts, today’s high is coincidently (or not so coincidently) the 20-day SMA and 50% fibonacci resistance of the 118.22-103.50 bear wave. This is also the breakdown point from August 14, 2007 as well as the 100-day SMA. Of course, this wall of resistance could be overcome, but if we fail to break above 111.75, the recovery off of 103.42 would have come to an end. A triangle is forming on the hourly charts so it is difficult to tell whether the break will be to the upside or not.
Tags: forex news, forex trading
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Scenario Analysis of What the Fed Could do in Sept
By DailyFX Updates | August 22, 2007
Terri Belkas, one of the Currency Analysts at DailyFX published a fantastic article on what action the Fed could take in September.
Potential Options:
A) 25bp Rate Cut in September, 25bp Rate Cut in October
B) 50bp Cut in September
C) No Rate Cut in September, 25bp Rate Cut in October
Tags: dailyfx, forex, forex news, forex trading
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DailyFX Forex Radio - Dow Shows Signs of Life, Nikkei Critical to Carry Trade Recover
By DailyFX Radio | August 16, 2007
Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM081607.mp3
Key Points
· Stock Markets Recover from Abyss, but Can Euro Recover Against the Dollar?
· Future of Fed Interest Rates Critical to US Dollar Performance
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
Tags: currency trading, dailyfx, dollar, forex, forex news
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Forex Trading - New Zealand Dollar Still Headed Lower
By DailyFX Updates | August 15, 2007
Yesterday, I said that the NZD/USD was in for more losses. We are down 1.38 percent today or 100 points off the high. But more importantly, we have broken very critical support at 7265/7275. There is now no major support until .6720.
Fundamentally and Technically, the NZD/USD looks like its in for more losses. Retail sales earlier this week were much weaker than expected and there are reports that foreign debt redemptions in the next 2 months will continue to weigh on the currency. NZ$3.5 billion worth of bonds are set to mature this month with another NZ$3.9 billion to mature in September. Much of this is foreign debt obligations and given the recent turmoil in the financial markets - repatriation risk is high.
Updated NZD/USD Chart
Tags: forex, forex news, forex trading
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