Trading EUR / AUD - Flat
By Eliseo Agas | November 8, 2007
Following up on yesterday’s EUR/AUD long idea, I decided to get flat early this morning at the 1.5815 area.
For the same reasons I should have gotten out of my NZD/JPY trade the other night instead of holding, I didn’t feel comfortable with the weakness showing on the 4-hour chart early this morning. Overnight price action basically flat-lined…not what I would ideally expect to see real buying momentum had carried over from the previous session. Again, my entire approach hinges on momentum and follow through in the near-term…not where will it be days or weeks from now. In that vein, of course it’s possible to see this pair higher based on the current technicals. But I’m not in the business of sticking around in a trade that long to find out…too much event risk exposure that I’m unwilling to deal with.
I’m happy to take the money off the table this time around.
Tags: AUD, Aussie, EUR, Euro, forex charts, forex trading
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Trading EUR / AUD - Sellers Stopped Cold?
By Eliseo Agas | November 7, 2007
Check out the EUR/AUD Daily. We have a rough double bottom indicating that sellers may have finished their onslaught…for now.
The 4-hour chart shows buyers powering up. This is as good as any a point to test the waters with a small probing trade. If we see a break above 1.5740 bid I’ll fee a lot more confident that sellers have probably stepped away.
If on the other hand price action breaks below 1.5495 bid then I’m out.
Tags: AUD, Aussie, EUR, Euro, forex charts, forex trading
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Trading NZD / JPY - Flat
By Eliseo Agas | November 7, 2007
I got out of my NZD/JPY long at 88.70 upon seeing a breakdown this morning in the price action via the 4-hour charts.
Though it could possibly go back up I’d rather take the money and run at this point. Unfortunately, it wasn’t necessarily the best close since I was thinking about closing it out last night before going to bed at a much higher level. There were subtle signs of weakness developing last night but I decided to hold on instead to see what the overnight action would do for me.
Nevertheless, it was a profitable trade and I’m now looking forward to the next.
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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Trading NZD / JPY - Letting It Run, Maybe
By Eliseo Agas | November 6, 2007
How much further can NZD/JPY and other Yen crosses continue going up from this point? Following up on my previous post, I’m roughly 130 PIPs in the money on my long position and holding.
The Daily and 4-hour charts are looking strong and so far the momentum is on my side (not to mention the carry). At this point there is no reason to question or second-guess the charts although one should always be prepared for the worst. The worst being that price action can turn on a dime and run against me without abandon.
I’ll watch for any early signs of weakness on the 4-hour charts before considering getting out of this trade. Additionally, if weakness develops and continues into the close of the trading session (5 PM New York time) I’d be much more motivated to close the trade. For those who follow my posts, you know that I’m an intermediate term swing/momentum style trader (typically holding for just a few days at a time). Not allowing large amounts of unrealized gains evaporate into thin air is a critical part of the approach since the window of opportunity for my trades can quickly close without much warning.
To be continued…
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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NZD / JPY - Afraid of the Carry Unwinding?
By Eliseo Agas | November 5, 2007
If you’re not afraid of the carry unwinding near-term here is an idea with NZD/JPY…
Carry trades unwinding will probably be a drawn out process punctuated by brief violent sell-offs as it develops. Now if you feel that the carry is still acting as support and yielding good opportunity now might be a time to consider getting long. Again, this is for a shorter to intermediate term trade…holding too long could get you hurt.
Notice the Daily versus the 4-hour attached screen grabs. We have a potential subsiding in selling interest the past couple of days developing. The Daily chart is in the middle of contracting volatility but still in a modest upward direction. I’d say any break below 86.65 would invalidate this idea since it would indicate that our timing is off or that the bears are much stronger then anticipated.
Let’s see what happens!
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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EUR / AUD - I’m Not Blaming “Them”
By Eliseo Agas | October 25, 2007
Looks like my timing with EUR/AUD was still a bit early relative to the continued lukewarm selling that ensued since I posted on this idea. This was a possibility I accounted for, which is why I only went in with a probing trade as discussed in my previous post.
As of right now, I still believe that a long potential may exist relative to the price action on the Daily chart. It’s running right into the area of congestion I pointed out in my previous post. I still believe that near-term this area of congestion is acting as supoprt so until it’s clearly violated to the downside I won’t necessarily be changing my stance just yet. What I’m doing now is hanging back and watching for another opportunity to time my entry. If on the other hand the pair breaks definitively below the 1.5650 area I’ll stop being a Bull and start to reassess what trading opportunity, if any, exists at that point.
Happy hunting.
Tags: AUD, EUR, forex charts, forex trading
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EUR / AUD - Still Selling Off?
By Eliseo Agas | October 24, 2007
Could there be slowing in the selling momentum for EUR/AUD? Check out the Daily chart and look at the support the pair ran into.
The area roughly between 1.5750 and 1.5650 is a cluster of congestion and naturally acting as support. The price action ran into it and bounced upwards (at the time of this posting). Think about the battle between buyers/sellers in this area that caused that cluster of price action to develop. Now I’m not saying that going long is a sure thing but it definitely seems worth a shot to me.
I’d throw on a small probing trade anywhere at the current level (at the time of this posting). But I wouldn’t feel completely bullish until price bids above 1.5890. If and when it gets to that point I’d probably throw on my full position size. Keep in mind, my probing trades are small trades whereby if I’m wrong on my timing and it doesn’t work out it’ll be a relatively small hit to the account. But if it works out I’ve put on a small portion of my trade at a relatively great price. It’s a form of scaling into a trade whereby I scale in, in two pieces.
The danger at this point is that it might still be too early for EUR/AUD to follow through to the upside. It could conceivably drop to retest the congestion area so set your stops accordingly. A break below 1.5760 will make this scenario more likely so buyers beware.
Tags: AUD, EUR, forex charts, forex trading
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USD / CAD - Covering Position
By Eliseo Agas | October 18, 2007
As of this morning I don’t like what I’m seeing on the charts for the short idea. Although nothing definitive has come up saying that the downside potential is gone, it’s showing a momentary sign of weakness…for me that’s enough since I wasn’t looking to hold the position for more than 2-days. What I was ideally looking for was momentum to come in slamming USDCAD downward for a day or two. I’d rather get out than risk a complete reversal to the upside in my face.
At best, if the downtrend remains intact it will allow me to get back short at possibly better prices. Right now, I was able to exit gracefully with a very negligible hit to the account. Now I’m ready for the next trade.
Tags: cad, forex charts, forex trading, USD
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Buying when we should have been selling.
By Tom Long | October 11, 2007
Occasionally (hopefully not more than once) we find that we entered into the wrong side of a trade. We meant to sell, but instead we bought. After the few seconds of panic, we are left with a decision. What do we do now? Most professionals will tell you that whenever they find themselves in this position, they immediately close the trade and correct their error. Too many times a new trader will convince themselves that the trade may work out anyway if they stay in long enough. However, more often than not the loss just gets bigger and the trader just gets more frustrated. Now you find yourself losing when you should have been winning. If you immediately exit and reenter in the direction you originally meant to, you could quickly absorb that loss and start to profit. So do not hesitate in fixing these types of errors. If it costs you a little money, chalk it up to experience. But don’t let a mistake like this get out of hand and of course, try not to do it again.
Tags: currency trading, forex, forex trading, trading mistakes
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Learn to walk before you try to run.
By Tom Long | October 9, 2007
Trading the financial markets is one of the most competitive fields in existence today.
I recently received an email from an FX Power Course graduate who was doing all the things necessary to become a profitable trader. He was showing the right amount of patience in waiting for the solid setups. The risk:reward ratio used was acceptable for his style of trading and all of the trades were in the direction of the daily trend. He was keeping a log of his thoughts as he entered and exited a trade and also just trading one mini lot at a time. So after six months of trading, he emailed to say that he was frustrated in that he was only a breakeven trader. In response, I emailed back congratulating him on his excellent results. After six months of live trading, this trader had not made any money and I was congratulating him. What was I thinking? I think that in any field it takes time to become a professional. Nobody would think that you could become a professional golfer or a doctor after six months of preparation and trading is no different. It is difficult to become a consistently profitable trader and most new traders will quit before they reach that status. Whether they quit because of a lack of interest, running out of money to play with or just didn’t realize how much work it was to become a trader, you have to pay proper respect to what it is you are trying to do. You are competing against traders who have been profitable for years and work all day to maintain their edge. Becoming profitable is achievable, but we have to earn that right. We want to start out easy by getting a feel for trading and that means practicing in a demo account first. However, the real lessons start when you open a live account and begin to trade you own money. When there is real money on the line, a 10 pip move against you feels different than it would in a demo account. This is why we should start out small, trading one mini lot at a time until we feel comfortable about what we are doing. With time, you will find that trading with real money becomes easier, but you should learn to walk before you start trying to run with the professionals. Then after six months of live trading, if you find yourself at breakeven, pat yourself on the back as you are on your way to being a profitable trader.
Tags: forex trading, fx power course, trades
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