Trading NZD / JPY - Flat
By Eliseo Agas | November 7, 2007
I got out of my NZD/JPY long at 88.70 upon seeing a breakdown this morning in the price action via the 4-hour charts.
Though it could possibly go back up I’d rather take the money and run at this point. Unfortunately, it wasn’t necessarily the best close since I was thinking about closing it out last night before going to bed at a much higher level. There were subtle signs of weakness developing last night but I decided to hold on instead to see what the overnight action would do for me.
Nevertheless, it was a profitable trade and I’m now looking forward to the next.
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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Trading NZD / JPY - Letting It Run, Maybe
By Eliseo Agas | November 6, 2007
How much further can NZD/JPY and other Yen crosses continue going up from this point? Following up on my previous post, I’m roughly 130 PIPs in the money on my long position and holding.
The Daily and 4-hour charts are looking strong and so far the momentum is on my side (not to mention the carry). At this point there is no reason to question or second-guess the charts although one should always be prepared for the worst. The worst being that price action can turn on a dime and run against me without abandon.
I’ll watch for any early signs of weakness on the 4-hour charts before considering getting out of this trade. Additionally, if weakness develops and continues into the close of the trading session (5 PM New York time) I’d be much more motivated to close the trade. For those who follow my posts, you know that I’m an intermediate term swing/momentum style trader (typically holding for just a few days at a time). Not allowing large amounts of unrealized gains evaporate into thin air is a critical part of the approach since the window of opportunity for my trades can quickly close without much warning.
To be continued…
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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NZD / JPY - Afraid of the Carry Unwinding?
By Eliseo Agas | November 5, 2007
If you’re not afraid of the carry unwinding near-term here is an idea with NZD/JPY…
Carry trades unwinding will probably be a drawn out process punctuated by brief violent sell-offs as it develops. Now if you feel that the carry is still acting as support and yielding good opportunity now might be a time to consider getting long. Again, this is for a shorter to intermediate term trade…holding too long could get you hurt.
Notice the Daily versus the 4-hour attached screen grabs. We have a potential subsiding in selling interest the past couple of days developing. The Daily chart is in the middle of contracting volatility but still in a modest upward direction. I’d say any break below 86.65 would invalidate this idea since it would indicate that our timing is off or that the bears are much stronger then anticipated.
Let’s see what happens!
Tags: forex charts, forex trading, JPY, Kiwi, NZD, Yen
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Afternoon Trade
By Laetitia Vaval | September 21, 2007
I entered a short-term position (probably until tomorrow) position in CHF/JPY earlier today. I had noticed that it was trading in a range between 98.56 and 98.20. I got short “relatively” close to the top of the range at 98.483 (middle black line), placed my protective stop at 99.350 ( a previous support level — on the 1 yr chart. Since i’ll be holding this trade overnight i’m going to set a limit price at 98.00 (lower green horizontal line on the chart above). From the different colored lines you can easily see that my risk vs. reward ratio is not optimal in this trade. It seems to be about 2:1 (when it should be 1:2)…
Tags: currency market, forex, forextrading, jpy, wall street warrior, wall street warriors
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CHF/JPY results
By Laetitia Vaval | September 20, 2007
So i just got in the office and checked on my trades from yesterday. Especially, the CHFJPY trade that I “forced” myself not to touch once I had entered it in the system. So my limit price of 98.25 was reached and i made a 24 pip profit ($207). This really shows the benefits of letting the trade work by itself instead of “irrationally” closing my position as soon as it starts ticking a few pips against me. My only regret in this case is to not have set my limit higher because CHFJPY traded all the way up to 98.50 before trading back down to the level where I had bought the pair. Something to consider for my next trade.
Tags: currency trading, dow, forex, forex market, jpy, trades, wall street warriors
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Range Trading CHFJPY
By Laetitia Vaval | September 19, 2007
I just opened a position in the CHFJPY as I am looking to range trade this afternoon. The CHFJPY has been trading in a range between since yesterday afternoon between 97.92 and 98.30. I entered the trade (got long) at 98.01 about 8 pips away from the bottom range( I realize this might not be an ideal entry point given that the range is relatively narrow), placed a stop at 97.78 (2pips below the bottom of the range — including the candle wicks), and a limit at 98.26 (the top of the trading range). I am going to use this trade to really respect the stops I placed initially.
I’ve seen that one of my biggest problems is that as soon as a pair starts trading against me, I just close the position without even waiting for it to hit my stop and that has made me loose a lot of “fake” money since after I closed out my position, the pair would trade back in my favor. I also placed a limit at 98.250 as I will be stepping out to lunch soon and therefore won’t be in front of the computer for a little while. But my main goal for this trade is to leave it untouched until it hits either my Stop or my Limit prices. And to learn to control my emotions, because as I write the CHFJPY is trading against me and I’m tempted to just close out my position ! But I’m going to let it trade “by itself”. Will update in a little bit.
Tags: forex, forextrading, jpy, laetitia vaval, range trading, wall street warriors
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US Retail Sales
By Laetitia Vaval | September 14, 2007
As I wrote yesterday, I had a short position in the USDJPY when I left the office. At 12:30 GMT, the August US Advance Retail Sales came out at 0.3% ( vs. 0.5% expected). Although this number came out slightly below expectations, the real disappointment came from US Retail Sales LESS Autos (-0.4% vs. 0.2% expected). This number indicates that US consumers are spending less money and is reflected on the USDJPY chart (above) within minutes of its release. I was short from 115.320 kept my position overnight. The USD weakened this morning in light of the disappointing Retail Sales release and the USDJPY dropped to a low of 114.35. I decided to buy back at 114.51 as I was starting to see a reversal and the beginning of a new uptrend. I made a 81pip profit.
I am still holding onto the EURUSD position that I bought yesterday at 1.3894. As I write, it is trading at 1.385.
Tags: currency trading, eurusd, forex, forextrading, jpy, retail sales, wall street warrior
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DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Hits 22-Year Lows on Dismal NFPs - Has the Fed Been Forced to Cut?
By DailyFX Radio | September 7, 2007
· US Dollar drops on dismal NFPs - how bad was it?
· Things aren’t rosy in Japan either - Q2 GDP estimated to show a contraction
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the Forum
Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM090707.mp3
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Tags: currency trading, dailyfx, dollar, forex, fxcm, jpy
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DailyFX Forex Radio - US Dollar Rallies on Fed Warning - What Can We Expect from Bernanke Now?
By DailyFX Radio | August 31, 2007
· US dollar gains following speeches by Fed’s Bernanke and US President Bush
· US markets closed on Monday, but Japanese data could provide some excitement
· Be sure to view the rest of the week’s event risk on the DailyFX Forex Calendar
To discuss these or any other FX topics with the DailyFX analysts, check out the ForumClick Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:
http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM083107.mp3
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Tags: dailyfx, dollar, forex, forex trading, jpy
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NZD/USD and CAD/JPY Both Moving Our Way
By DailyFX Updates | August 28, 2007
Let’s continue following up our NZD/USD and CAD/JPY short trades. The NZD/USD was a new opportunity introduced yesterday, I talked about how there was major resistance and we are targeting a move down to 70 cents. The currency pair is moving our way. There is near term resistance at today’s low, but I think this will break. Below is the latest chart.
As for CAD/JPY, in the same post, we said we were targeting 108.50. That level was reached this morning. The next support is 106.90, the 200-day SMA.
Tags: cad, forex, forextrading, jpy, nzd
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