Quiet Start to the Week!
By Mike Conlon | February 8, 2010
This week is starting out kind of quiet, perhaps recovering from Super Bowl hangovers and the carnage from the end of last week. There’s no real earth-shattering news on tap until the end of the week, when all eyes will be on Europe. This is exactly what the markets need; a chance to rest and re-evaluate. I’m seeing some mild risk-taking and US dollar weakness this morning.
On to the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): No real news on tap until the end of the week when Australia reports its employment figures. Look for the Aussie to trade solely on risk themes and commodity prices this week. The Aussie is up across the board.
Kiwi (NZD): Expect the Kiwi to trade in similar fashion to the Aussie. New Zealand’s economy is still “fragile”, according Reserve Bank Governor Bollard in response to last week’s unemployment figures. There will be some figures coming out later this week that may help gauge inflation, but don’t expect any major moves outside of risk themes.
Loonie (CAD): Canadian housing starts came in better than expected this morning, but expect the Loonie to trade more on US themes and commodity (particularly oil prices) this week. No other news this week.
Euro (EUR): By now if you’re not aware of the pending debt crisis in Greece, then you’ve had your head in the sand for some time! Seriously, reports coming out of Greece suggest labor strikes as unions are dead-set against the government’s debt reduction plans. In the past, these strikes have become violent which could further highlight the problems and decrease confidence. On tap this week is Germany’s Consumer Price Index and at the end of the week we get Euro zone GDP figures. The trends on the chart clearly look down and we could see the Euro test 1.35 vs. USD. Stay tuned!
Pound (GBP): The Pound is down again after surveys showed the opposition party’s lead over the incumbent party narrowing, which would result in an election to be held in June. Furthermore, British GDP and the BOE quarterly inflation report are on tap, which could show weaker than expected growth. The pound is just under 1.56 vs. USD.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is weak this morning, paring back after gains last week from risk-aversion themes. Toward the end of the week retail sales will be reported which should be a gauge of how recovery is going. The consumer in the US represents some 70% of GDP so weaker sales could foreshadow slower growth. Friday is the UM Consumer confidence number.
Yen (JPY): The yen is weak today mainly on risk-taking and a pullback from strength last week. Economic slowdowns are predicted as problems in the Euro zone hurt exports and the Toyota recalls hurting the economy in general.
After last week’s scare, expect the market to trade some sideways as market capitulation digests the news. Barring any major economic “disasters”, expect traders to dip their toes back into the risk trade very slowly. However, if stocks continue to sell of today, then we could be in for more dollar strength.
Overnight, Asian markets are down while they are trading higher in Europe. US market futures are down, and oil is up slightly to 71.25, with a better rebound in gold, up 1.25% to 1065.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, BOE, British, cad, commodity, course, crisis, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, index, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, new zealand, news, pound, practice, practice account, retail sales, RSI, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, trend, unemployment, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Carnage to Continue?
By Mike Conlon | February 5, 2010
In the wake of yesterday’s market carnage, all eyes were on this morning’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The market was praying for a decent number to justify a move to the upside, as yesterday was the biggest one day drop we’ve seen in some time. World markets got crushed to the tune of 2.5% on average, and commodities sold off as well. As I correctly called yesterday morning, “Ugly with a capital U”.
So the markets were grasping for any positive news to reverse this down-trend and they “may” have found it in this morning’s NFP report. The NFP, which measures job loss, came in at -20K. Expectations for this number were all over the place but the fact that there wasn’t job growth would normally be seen as negative. However, the ray of hope in this report is that the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% for the month, down from 10%. Now I’m no mathematician, but it seems highly suspect to me that the unemployment rate can go down, even as we see continued job losses. But whatever, in early trading it looks the market is going to “take the ball and run with it” as futures have bounced off of their lows. It would not shock me to see the market wake up at some point and realize it didn’t get what it is looking for. Today may be a continuation of Thursday’s bloodbath.
Here’s how the currencies are doing this morning:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie was up in early action this morning paring back some of yesterday’s losses, as the initial reaction to the NFP was positive, encouraging some risk-taking. Whether this can hold throughout the day is another story. With all of the fear and uncertainty out there, investors may flee to safety over the weekend. Contributing to Aussie strength was the RBA’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement that stated that “economic growth will continue to accelerate, even if the policymakers are forced to raise the benchmark interest rate by ¾ of a point.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is up this morning vs. the Dollar and Yen, as mild risk-taking is still the theme at this point in the morning. No major news out of New Zealand.
Loonie (CAD): It’s a good morning in Canada today, as the Canadian economy gained 43K jobs last month, reducing the unemployment rate to 8.3%. This makes the Canadian dollar this morning’s big winner, as it is also benefiting from mild risk-taking and the bounce in oil. It is up across the board this morning, most notably against the Japanese yen.
Euro (EUR): Yesterday was a tough day for the Euro, as the flight to safety trade sent the common currency to a 6-month low near 1.365 vs. the dollar. The Euro is also known as the “anti-dollar”, so it gets hit particularly hard when there is major risk aversion. Throw in the problems with the PIIGS countries, and it’s no wonder ECB President Trichet was out this morning trying to defend the Euro and instill confidence that the potential contagion from the Greek “tragedy” will not spread throughout the region. It looks like the Euro may re-test that low as it currently sits near that low.
Pound (GBP): The pound is down this morning against all but the yen on the risk aversion theme.
Dollar (USD): The dollar had a huge rally yesterday and is mixed this morning, down against the commodity currencies but up against the Euro, Pound, and Yen. We could continue to see some near-term dollar strength, as heightened sensitivity to risk is occurring around the globe and market trends are pointing in that direction.
Yen (JPY): The yen is also mixed this morning, following the same themes as the US dollar, though down against USD.
In world markets, the Asian stock market got clobbered and closed down.
European stock indices are currently down as are the US markets, although it looks like we may have a reversal here in the US as the media monkeys try to put as much lipstick as possible on that NFP pig!
Gold and oil are flat, waiting for stocks to decide which way they want to go. Commodities were down roughly 3% yesterday.
As you can see, there still is MAJOR fear out there as economic recovery is not taking place as quickly as anyone would like. What I really want to stress here is that on a day like yesterday, when nearly EVERYTHING was down, the only 2 places to park your money that went up were in the currency market. If you had bought dollars or yen yesterday, you were a happy camper while everyone else was crying in their coffee.
Isn’t it time you see what this market is all about?
To learn more about how you can make gains even when nearly EVERYTHING is going down, be sure to check out our affordable currency trading courses.
To follow world events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, cad, canada, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, interest, interest rate, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, market, Mike Conlon, money, new zealand, news, nfp, nzd, oil, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trend, unemployment, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Quiet Morning Reveals Mixed Bag!
By Mike Conlon | February 3, 2010
Quiet Morning Reveals Mixed Bag!
This morning the markets can’t seem to decide which way they want to go. News out of the Euro Zone that Greece’s debt reduction plan has been accepted caused the Euro to rise above 1.40, though it has backed off and is now trading below. The US ADP Jobs report came out this AM, showing better than expected job loss numbers, yet the stock market futures sold off and the dollar advanced.
Tomorrow’s big news is from across the pond, with both the UK and the EU coming out with their interest rate decisions.
Here’s how the individual currencies are faring this morning:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is up this morning vs. all currencies, as mild risk-taking is the general theme this morning, despite a bit of US dollar strength.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is mixed this morning, down against the Dollar and Loonie, but up against Japanese yen.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is showing a bit of weakness, paring back recent gains as commodities, particularly oil, traded higher.
Euro (EUR): As mentioned earlier, the Euro is showing strength as the Greek debt reduction plan was viewed as acceptable. However, rumors still persist that a bailout may be forth-coming, which is preventing institutions from flocking back as an alternate to the Dollar.
Pound (GBP): The pound is trading down slightly as all eyes will be on the rate decision tomorrow as well as the BOE’s actions regarding its quantitative easing program.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is showing mild strength on the heels of the ADP jobs report. Stock futures are down, high-lighting the inverse relationship.
Yen (JPY): The yen is weak this morning across the board, as risk-aversion is abating and yen carry trades are in higher demand.
So expect sideways trading throughout the day as the market oscillates back and forth waiting for the next piece of news that will cause one risk theme to dominate the other.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, BOE, cad, carr, carry trade, commodities, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, decision, dollar, dow, EUR, Euro, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, interest, interest rate, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, practice, practice account, rate decision, RSI, ssi, stock, time, trade, trades, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged!
By Mike Conlon | February 2, 2010
So this morning is a risk-aversion day in the currency markets, however equity futures in the US are up slightly this morning, as are gold and oil. At some point today, I expect some sort of mean reversion.
Here’s a look at the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): As mentioned, the Aussie is down this morning as the RBA left rates unchanged. There was also a comment made about sovereign debt concerns that is also weighing on the Aussie. It’s currently the biggest loser on the morning, down 1% vs. the US dollar and 1.3% vs. the Japanese yen.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is down this morning trading in sympathy with the Aussie, and there was also news that wages in New Zealand rose at their slowest pace in 9 years. This demonstrates that the labor market is weak and is a sign that rate hikes may be off the table for some time.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is down this morning as a result of risk-aversion, though it has been trading higher recently as oil prices have been moving higher. There’s no real market making news on the Loonie until the end of this week when they report the unemployment change on Friday, so look to oil prices to give clues about where the Loonie may go.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is up slightly this morning as it’s taking a much needed break from the pounding it’s been taking. By now you are familiar with all of the negative news from the region regarding the PIIGS countries, so today, no news is good news. The trend though is still clearly down.
Pound (GBP): The pound is lower this morning as market sentiment over the health of the UK economy is still negative. The pound tested 1.59 vs. the US dollar and is near a three-month low.
Dollar (USD): US home sales figures come out at 10AM EST and could serve as a barometer to the health of the economic recovery in the US. Coming on the heels of the biggest federal budget EVER proposed, there are increased worries that the administration’s plans, “just don’t add up” and that proposed tax hikes on businesses and the wealthy will further stall jobs growth.
Yen (JPY): The yen is higher this morning as the global risk-aversion theme is taking place. This may leave the BOJ in a conundrum as their attempts to weaken the yen to improve exports could be undermined by global risk aversion themes. Stay tuned on this one.
Overnight, Asian equity markets were up and European markets are up as well, though off their highs of the day. US stock futures are slightly higher, though I suspect that this existing home sales data at 10 may be the catalyst for a stock market reversal if they come in worse than expected.
Currently, oil is up almost a full percent to over 75, and gold is trading just higher than 1100 to 1113.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, China, comments, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, market, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, oil, pair, pairs, piigs, pound, practice, practice account, sentiment, ssi, stock, Swiss, time, trend, unemployment, USD, wealth, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Global Recovery Under Way?
By Mike Conlon | February 1, 2010
All eyes are on the US ISM Manufacturing number due out this morning at 10AM EST. The market is hoping to see a rise in this number as that would indicate business activity is picking up. So far this morning, we are seeing mild risk-taking as the Euro has rebounded from 4 days of selling.
US stock market futures are up as are gold and oil.
Let’s examine how this is affecting world currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is currently trading down this morning despite the risk-taking tone this morning as traders are gearing up for the RBA rate decision due out overnight. The market is expecting a 25 basis point hike to 4%, but this could trigger a bearish scenario. If they do raise rates, it is extremely likely that they will take another rate hike off of the table going forward. There is also a chance that they don’t raise rates this time, as news that China is paring back economic stimulus could affect the Australian economy.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is up slightly this morning benefitting from the risk trade.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is up this morning as oil prices recover and stabilize as well as a general risk-taking mood this morning. The market is waiting for confirmation from the ISM data so it trading in a tight range until that release. The Loonie should strengthen today if the number comes in better than expected.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is the biggest gainer this morning as it rebounds from 4 days of weakening. The market is gaining confidence that the plan to manage the debt crisis in Greece is acceptable and plausible which generally ties in to the risk-taking trade this morning. Over the last four days, the thought that Euro could serve as an alternative to the US dollar as a reserve currency was largely debunked as Central banks pulled cash out of the Euro at a record pace.
Pound (GBP): The pound is down this morning against all but the Japanese yen as housing prices slid in the UK and banks granted fewer mortgage applications last month. The Bank of England rate decision is on tap next week but traders are more interested to see if they continue with their quantitative easing program.
Dollar (USD): The US dollar is down this morning as part of the risk-taking trade. Stock market futures are up as are commodities and all eyes are on the ISM Manufacturing number. There are some figures out this morning that show that US personal incomes are up slightly, and personal spending is higher than the prior reading but missing expectations by just .1%.
Yen (JPY): The yen is down across the board this morning as the BOJ’s top economist said that Japan’s economy is far from “achieving self-sustaining growth” as their export led recovery failed to induce consumer spending. This also falls in line with ministers calls last week for a weaker yen.
As we can see the big news of the day is ISM Manufacturing number which will be viewed as a proxy for global economic recovery. The only currency that is trading “out of the ordinary” is the Aussie, as the market prepares for the rate decision.
In global markets, stocks in Asia closed generally higher and Europe is higher at the moment. US stock markets futures are higher pre-open and oil is up to 73.47, with gold slightly higher to 1088.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, central bank, China, comments, commodities, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, falls, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, interest, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, oil, pair, pairs, pound, practice, practice account, rate, rate decision, ssi, stock, stocks, Swiss, time, trade, trader, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Fastest Growth since 2003!
By Mike Conlon | January 29, 2010
This morning, the US Q4 GDP figures came in at a better than expected 5.7%, the fastest growth since 2003. While this is seemingly good news for the US economy as it marks the 2nd straight quarter of growth providing further evidence that we moved forward from recession.
However, we’re not out of the woods just yet. There are still global concerns weighing heavily upon the markets, such as the Greek debt problem in the Euro Zone, as well as China’s restrictions on lending.
This morning’s currency action is rather neutral, as it can’t be described as either risk-taking or risk-aversion.
Here’s how world currencies are trading this morning:
Aussie (AUD): Gains in the Aussie have slowed down as the global slowdown, particularly in China, is expected to slow growth in Australia. This morning is a mixed bag for the Aussie, as it’s higher vs. the Japanese yen and British pound, but down vs. the US dollar and Euro.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is trading higher across the board and is showing the highest percent gain vs. the yen this morning, up 1%. They just reported a budget deficit for the first time in 9 years, as tax receipts have slowed and government spending picked up last year.
Loonie (CAD): Canadian GDP came in this morning at .4%, a smidge higher than expectations. Canada is showing slow but steady growth, which is a positive for the economy. The Loonie has been weakening against the US dollar as global risk appetite has abated and oil prices are down almost $6 this year.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is trading higher against the yen and the pound, but down against the rest this morning. Consumer prices rose 1% showing that inflation is starting to pick up in the region. Also to note is that fears over the Greek debt crisis are weakening as region considers all of its options.
Pound (GBP): The pound is down this morning against all but the yen, experiencing a technical pull back from its recent strength. Housing prices were up the most in 5 months and consumer confidence is improving. BOE policy-maker Andrew Sentance cautioned that the recovery can continue, “especially if interest rates remain low.”
Dollar (USD): The dollar is showing strength today after the GDP figures that were reported this morning. The fastest growth since 2003 is stoking thoughts that inflation may be closer than the Fed thinks.
Yen (JPY): The Japanese yen is down across the board today as the CPI index showed that deflation is still very prevalent in the Japanese economy. Finance Minister Kan called for the Bank of Japan to take a powerful approach to combat falling prices and a strengthen yen.
The stock markets closed down in Asia, but are currently higher in Europe and the US. Gold is down slightly and oil is up this morning.
So today is a bit of a mixed bag. Keep an eye on the correlations to watch for break-downs or irregularities to see if there are reversals or reversion to mean. Today seems like it will be a range-bound day going into the weekend.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, British, cad, canada, China, comments, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, fed, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, index, interest, interest rate, interest rates, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, market, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, oil, pair, pairs, pound, practice, practice account, recession, ssi, stock, Swiss, technical, time, USD, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Busy Week Ahead!
By Mike Conlon | January 25, 2010
Rumors abounded last week that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was losing political support for re-confirmation and there was some speculation that he might not get the “nod’. Combine that with president Obama’s populist rhetoric and the markets sold off because of the uncertainty. The one thing I cannot stress enough is that THE MARKETS HATE UNCERTAINTY!
Realizing the consequence of their actions, politicos this weekend conceded that Bernanke will most likely be re-confirmed so it was game on for the markets again. As a result, the theme so far this morning is mild risk-taking. The Aussie (AUD) and Kiwi (NZD) are up, the Japanese yen (JPY) is down.
The yen drop also comes as a result that “people familiar with the situation” claim that the Bank of Japan will expand bond buying to keep the yen from strengthening too much and encourage weakness to help exports.
The British pound (GBP) is also showing strength this morning, as the UK GDP report is expected to show an expansion of .4% in Q4 vs. a previous contraction of .2% in Q3. The pound is also near 5-month highs against the Euro (EUR) which is currently under pressure from problems with the PIIGS countries, particularly Greece.
Also on tap this week is GDP reports from the UK on Tuesday and Annualized GDP from the US on Friday.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from the Euro Zone and Australia on Wednesday and Japan on Thursday.
Interest rate decisions from Japan on Tuesday and the US and New Zealand on Wednesday.
That plus a smattering of consumer confidence numbers from various regions plus the US and President Obama’s State of the Union address should make for a volatile week!
When trading markets that are expected to have a higher degree of volatility, it is important to stay nimble and not “get married” to a position. Remember to cut your losers short and let your winners run!
Happy trading!
To learn more about how to get involved with the fastest growing market in the world– the forex market– be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live in a free, real-time practice account, get started here!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, Bernanke, British, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, decision, dow, EUR, Euro, fed, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, index, interest, interest rate, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, market, Mike Conlon, new zealand, nzd, piigs, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, short, ssi, time, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
FOMC Meeting at 2:15EST!
By Mike Conlon | December 16, 2009
The Fed decision on interest rates is due out at 2:15 EST today. The minutes leading up to and surrounding the decision are usually volatile and currency spreads can widen if there’s uncertainty. So if you do trade around that time, be cautious!
Now no one is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates, but all ears will be on the semantics of the meeting, that is, will they change their language. The Fed’s dovish stance on rates has persisted as the US dollar has fallen against almost all major currencies this year.
The zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) that they have adopted has been in effect for just over 1 year. Will they tip their hand or provide statements of a more hawkish nature? The PPI numbers came out yesterday and showed a larger than expected degree of inflation, which some see as a sign that Bernanke et al will have to raise rates sooner than later.
In the meantime, the US dollar has picked up some short-term support and has been gaining ground against other currencies, particularly the Euro. But will that mark a trend reversal? Or is it just a brief pause?
As of late, the currency market correlations that we speak of often have started to break down. There are now actually days where both the dollar and the stock market can both be in positive territory. This tells me that we may be seeing a shift in the market response to risk-taking and that a rate hike may not be absolutely necessary for the US dollar to strengthen.
Remember, the forex market is a comparison market; that is, as a currency you don’t have to be the best, just be better than the rest!
So let’s see what Bernanke does today, but my feeling is it won’t be much. Weakness coming out of the Euro Zone in addition to Australia’s may be enough to see the dollar strengthen. Should he take a more hawkish stance, then expect the dollar to take off!
I’ll be following this event live and will hopefully have some charts to see what, if anything, takes place.
And of course you can follow this event on your own, by signing up for a free, live practice account here!
Tags: account, charts, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, dollar, dow, EUR, Euro, fed, forex, free, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, live, Mike Conlon, practice, practice account, short, time, trade, trend
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Weekly Outlook from InnerFX
By Mike Conlon | November 24, 2009
EUR/USD
Yesterday’s rebound against the US dollar (USD) provides a clue about a potential resumption of the longer term uptrend. We’ll see if the euro will manage to hold gains above the fresh breached barrier into the 1.4950 region (which is currently under minor pressure) – formed by the falling trend line coming from 1.5045 over the previous lower highs. In case of an extended pullback below 1.4950, the 1.4850-1.4900 level will eventually limit losses in order to keep the bullish structure under development. I maintain my bullish stance on euro but I’m slightly cautious due to the repeated price action hesitation against the 1.5000-1.5060 top side. As I said earlier today: it won’t be easy to break higher, but it won’t be easy to drop lower (below 1.4800/50) either, while signs of hesitation continue to rule across the board – resulting in short-lived moves in a chop-chop manner.
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-23-2009
- EURUSD daily chart 11-23-2009
NZDUSD
In my previous short-term outlook, I mentioned that a pullback from .7440 would probably face solid bids around .7300, and eventually lower – around .7150. The upside remains favored for now as the pullback has faced a solid support, indeed. The rising trend line coming from .6475 also coincided with the recent bottom, so there are some valid reasons to keep the bullish view on NZD valid. Keep an eye on the .7400 handle as a breach is needed to fully confirm that the corrective cycle has ended.
Gold seem unstoppable and continues to rally to fresh highs on a regular basis – recently exceeding the upper boundary of the uptrend channel, as seen in the chart below, and the 1130 region is expected to provide support on pullbacks within the coming days. While it continues to push higher, dollar weakness across the board is likely to continue.
Let’s take a look at current Gold and S&P500 charts: both seem to provide enough bullish clues (for now) to support the ‘weaker dollar’ scenario. The important levels to watch are: 1130 support for Gold; 1095-1100 support region for the S&P500 along with the 1113 resistance.
- Gold chart 11-23-2009
- S&P500 short-term chart 11-23-2009
Have a great week!
Tags: analysis, charts, Conlon, data, dollar, dow, easy, EUR, Euro, eurusd, fx, gold, Il, live, lower, nzd, pair, pairs, scheme, short, Swiss, time, trend, uptrend, USD
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »
Whoops! Shoulda Zigged When I Zagged!
By Mike Conlon | November 13, 2009
Let me start by saying thank you to MT4 for having issues that have prevented me from trading. While my logic was correct in that “something had to give”, my choice was wrong predicting yen strength and Aussie/Kiwi weakness.
The exact opposite occurred!
Here’s a quick chart of Kiwi/Yen (NZD/JPY):
(click to enlarge)
My logic this AM was that barring some sort of news for Aussie/Kiwi strength, I figured that someone “knew something” about Japanese yen and why it was moving. Looks like that guess was wrong and this trade almost certainly would have ended in losses.
Just goes to re-enforce what I preach (but don’t always practice LOL) all the time– trade what you see and not what you think you know!
Wanna get started in this market today? Click here for a real-time, demo or live account today!
Tags: account, Aussie, blog, demo, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, market, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, practice, ssi, time, trade, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »