No Interest Rate Hikes!
By Mike Conlon | March 4, 2010
As expected, neither the BOE nor the ECB raised interest rates today with the ECB citing fiscal problems in Greece and the BOE putting a hold on further quantitative easing to see if previous measures have been enough.
In other news, US initial jobless claims came in as expected, though all eyes are on tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. I’m seeing some mild risk aversion this morning, and again am seeing Canadian dollar strength. Commodities are flat after seeing some gains from the previous days.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie was down earlier but looks like a rebound may happen today, as news of a narrowing trade deficit and an expected US employment report may outweigh concerns out of the UK and Euro zone.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower this morning as it looks like carry traders are dumping the Kiwi in favor of the Loonie in addition to mild risk-aversion.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie continues to advance as traders speculate that the economic situation in Canada is in good enough to begin raising rates. The Loonie is fast approaching the 1.02 level to USD and we could see parity by mid-year if interest rates begin to rise in Canada.
Euro (EUR): The sale of Greek bonds is going well this morning as higher yields are attracting investors and the issue is over-subscribed. In the meantime, there is equal outrage in both Greece and Germany although the Germans haven’t taken to streets like the Greeks have—yet. What is happening in Greece is a perfect example of what happens when a government grants its citizens entitlements and then has to take them away because they can’t afford it. I hope the US administration is taking note. Interest rates were held steady and the ECB has decided to not remove economic stimulus at this time.
Pound (GBP): Interest rates have been held steady at .5%, which comes as no surprise to the market. The BOE did make it clear that they will not increase bond-buying to help stimulate the economy. It is clear that the UK sees the need for deficit reduction so the BOE is content to play the “wait and see” game to see if earlier measure have taken hold. There is still increased fear that the UK could be headed for a slide back into recession, and the spring elections are also lingering as fears of a “hung parliament” could cause political non-action.
Dollar (USD): Initial jobless claims came this morning as expected and pending home sales are due out later this morning. We could see some volatility as traders position themselves for tomorrow’s NFP report. The Dollar is mixed this morning.
Yen (JPY): The yen is down across the board this morning as there is talk about a potential sales-tax increase coming from Finance Minister Kan. This would be the first increase in over 10 years and could be a sign that the fiscal situation in Japan is worse than expected. However, this may be a ploy to put pressure on the BOJ to increase bond-buying. Any way you slice it, the Japanese would like to have a weak currency to help exports, and the Yen has been on a tear as of late.
So European themes are dominating the market right now; and Japan is trying to keep the Yen from strengthening. Tomorrow’s NFP report is usually the biggest event for the currency market, as this will give clues as to where the US economy is or may be going, and what the economic response is going to be as a result. This could affect the risk outlook for the rest of the month for as the Dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Greek Revival?
By Mike Conlon | March 3, 2010
No I’m not talking architecture this morning; I’m talking about the austerity measures Greece is proposing to undertake in order to satisfy the French and the Germans. Now if they can just keep their citizens from rioting in the streets they might just be able to pull this off. Meanwhile, the Euro is higher to 1.365 vs. USD.
Also higher this morning is the British pound, which is bucking a 6-day slide. Sort of like God, on the seventh day it rested! The Canadian dollar is higher in a continuation of yesterday’s news.
So this morning is sort of a mixed bag. More news driven than risk-oriented, it will be interesting to see if the currencies fall back in line.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): Australian GDP came in this morning a little bit higher year over year, though not gangbusters as we may have been lead to believe. While the economy has been moving along nicely and is well-positioned for growth, the lack of explosive growth means that we could see a pause to near-term rate hikes. The forex market can be so greedy at times! The Aussie is mixed this morning.
Kiwi (NZD): The kiwi is down today across the board and is trading near a 10-year low to the Aussie. It looks as though the market is attempting to re-define the Kiwi’s place in the “risk totem pole”. Nevertheless, the Kiwi economy is still on track and they do provide 2.5% interest, making it a good destination for carry trades. I think the market realizes that the economies of Australia and New Zealand are quite different, and the Loonie looks poised to replace the Kiwi, as traders speculate that rate hikes may be coming sooner in Canada then in New Zealand. This makes the Kiwi/Loonie pair the largest loser of the morning, down some 1.15%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is benefitting this morning from yesterdays interest rate decision as the market is now starting to believe that Canada may be the next to raise interest rates. The Loonie is up across the board this morning.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher against all but the Loonie and Pound, as proposed Greek austerity measure are giving hope that the debt problem won’t spiral out of control. This is coming ahead of the Euro zone GDP report and interest rate decision due out tomorrow. Rates are not expected to change and any surprise to the upside on GDP would be viewed as positive by the market.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher this morning after consumer confidence figures came in better than expected. I’m not so sure why they are so confident but to each their own. Tomorrow is the BOE’s decision on interest rates and quantitative easing. Deficit reduction is a major priority in the UK so it will be interesting to see if they need to continue to stimulate the economy at the expense of increasing debt. Stay tuned!
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is down against all but the Kiwi as job cuts have fallen to their lowest levels since 2006. All this means is that employers plan on firing less people. They are still not in “hiring mode” so the “jobless recovery” continues as political uncertainty and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report loom heavily over the market.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mixed this morning, giving back some gains against the European currencies yet higher vs. the Aussie and Kiwi. As no real risk themes are presenting themselves today, the yen is benefiting from a little bit of carry trade unwind and it looks like some of that carry trade money is going toward the Loonie. No real news out of the region today besides a reading of higher worker earnings, which could help push domestic demand.
The markets aren’t always dominated by risk themes so it is really important to pay attention to the overall economic news for the most widely traded currencies. Slight changes can have large effects in individual currencies which can “break out” of the usual order. In these situations, there is great opportunity as sometimes the market is slow to catch on. My trumpeting of the Loonie over the last few weeks is one such example.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Australia Hikes!
By Mike Conlon | March 2, 2010
Aussie Rate Hike, Canada to Follow?
As expected, the RBA raised interest rates today .25% to 4%, as the economy there has been humming along. More hikes are expected throughout the year. Later this morning, the Canadian interest rate decision is due out. And while it is not expected that the rate will change, the Bank of Canada may provide clues as to when this may happen.
That’s the good. As for the bad, there’s no shortage of negative news coming out of the Euro zone and the UK. Potential political gridlock in the UK and the Greek debacle are weighing heavily on the Pound and the Euro. Commodities are also higher in what can be deemed mild risk-taking.
In currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher this morning as the RBA did the expected and raised rates to 4% as economic recovery is more advanced than anywhere else on the planet. Having just reported a surge in business confidence and explosive jobs growth, there could be up to another 1% in rate hikes as the year moves forward, depending upon whether or not inflation picks up. As of right now, inflation appears to be within the targeted range, which could suggest a slowing of rate increases which is dovish. This is why the Aussie is showing modest gains today and not explosive ones.
Kiwi (NZD): Surprisingly, the Kiwi is down this morning as there are dovish outlooks on economic recovery and inflation appears to be muted. So while Australia is raising rates; New Zealand could be at a standstill for some time.
Loonie (CAD): The Bank of Canada rate decision is due out later this morning and though the market is predicting no change, there may be some language hinting of future rate hikes which may come sooner than expected. Fourth quarter GDP came in at 5% vs. and expectation of 3.3%, showing much faster growth. Inflation is also very close to the target rate which could cause earlier than expected action. The Loonie is the best performer this morning, higher against all heavily traded currencies. Because the forex market is forward-looking, potential rate hikes usually trump actual ones. This is why the Loonie is higher vs. the Aussie.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning, trading lower vs. the commodity currencies but higher against the rest. Germany is putting immense pressure on Greece to cut its deficit and is basically in charge of the Greek bond offering which makes them the “holder of the purse-strings”. These austerity measures aren’t going over too well in Greece, as strikes are scheduled which usually lead to some sort of rioting. Greece has a tough pill to swallow and the citizens there don’t want to take their medicine. Stay tuned!
Pound (GBP): The political wrangling is heating up in the UK as fears that a “hung Parliament” may prevent the UK from tackling their economic deficit. With elections coming in a few months, the speculation that there will be no majority party could induce political grid-lock which will prevent anything from getting done. Does this sound familiar? It will be interesting to see the outcome of these elections, and whether the British actually vote to have the punch bowl removed from the party. The Pound is down across the board. Again.
Dollar (USD): USD is down against all but the Pound, as the big news in the US is going to be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Expect the Dollar to trade on risk themes until then.
Yen (JPY): Japanese yen is higher this morning as unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.9% and household spending increased for the sixth straight month, showing signs that domestic demand may be improving. However, yen strength is negative for exports and at this point it doesn’t seem like further expansion is in the cards. Let’s see if they decide to rein in government spending to tackle further debt, or provide quantitative easing to try to keep yen low.
As you can see, some economies are doing much better than others and those that look to decrease their debt and may be targeted lower in the short-term, but may reap the benefits in the long-term. Right now, look for the commodity currencies to lead the pack provided there is no global shock to the system.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Carnage to Continue?
By Mike Conlon | February 5, 2010
In the wake of yesterday’s market carnage, all eyes were on this morning’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The market was praying for a decent number to justify a move to the upside, as yesterday was the biggest one day drop we’ve seen in some time. World markets got crushed to the tune of 2.5% on average, and commodities sold off as well. As I correctly called yesterday morning, “Ugly with a capital U”.
So the markets were grasping for any positive news to reverse this down-trend and they “may” have found it in this morning’s NFP report. The NFP, which measures job loss, came in at -20K. Expectations for this number were all over the place but the fact that there wasn’t job growth would normally be seen as negative. However, the ray of hope in this report is that the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% for the month, down from 10%. Now I’m no mathematician, but it seems highly suspect to me that the unemployment rate can go down, even as we see continued job losses. But whatever, in early trading it looks the market is going to “take the ball and run with it” as futures have bounced off of their lows. It would not shock me to see the market wake up at some point and realize it didn’t get what it is looking for. Today may be a continuation of Thursday’s bloodbath.
Here’s how the currencies are doing this morning:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie was up in early action this morning paring back some of yesterday’s losses, as the initial reaction to the NFP was positive, encouraging some risk-taking. Whether this can hold throughout the day is another story. With all of the fear and uncertainty out there, investors may flee to safety over the weekend. Contributing to Aussie strength was the RBA’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement that stated that “economic growth will continue to accelerate, even if the policymakers are forced to raise the benchmark interest rate by ¾ of a point.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is up this morning vs. the Dollar and Yen, as mild risk-taking is still the theme at this point in the morning. No major news out of New Zealand.
Loonie (CAD): It’s a good morning in Canada today, as the Canadian economy gained 43K jobs last month, reducing the unemployment rate to 8.3%. This makes the Canadian dollar this morning’s big winner, as it is also benefiting from mild risk-taking and the bounce in oil. It is up across the board this morning, most notably against the Japanese yen.
Euro (EUR): Yesterday was a tough day for the Euro, as the flight to safety trade sent the common currency to a 6-month low near 1.365 vs. the dollar. The Euro is also known as the “anti-dollar”, so it gets hit particularly hard when there is major risk aversion. Throw in the problems with the PIIGS countries, and it’s no wonder ECB President Trichet was out this morning trying to defend the Euro and instill confidence that the potential contagion from the Greek “tragedy” will not spread throughout the region. It looks like the Euro may re-test that low as it currently sits near that low.
Pound (GBP): The pound is down this morning against all but the yen on the risk aversion theme.
Dollar (USD): The dollar had a huge rally yesterday and is mixed this morning, down against the commodity currencies but up against the Euro, Pound, and Yen. We could continue to see some near-term dollar strength, as heightened sensitivity to risk is occurring around the globe and market trends are pointing in that direction.
Yen (JPY): The yen is also mixed this morning, following the same themes as the US dollar, though down against USD.
In world markets, the Asian stock market got clobbered and closed down.
European stock indices are currently down as are the US markets, although it looks like we may have a reversal here in the US as the media monkeys try to put as much lipstick as possible on that NFP pig!
Gold and oil are flat, waiting for stocks to decide which way they want to go. Commodities were down roughly 3% yesterday.
As you can see, there still is MAJOR fear out there as economic recovery is not taking place as quickly as anyone would like. What I really want to stress here is that on a day like yesterday, when nearly EVERYTHING was down, the only 2 places to park your money that went up were in the currency market. If you had bought dollars or yen yesterday, you were a happy camper while everyone else was crying in their coffee.
Isn’t it time you see what this market is all about?
To learn more about how you can make gains even when nearly EVERYTHING is going down, be sure to check out our affordable currency trading courses.
To follow world events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint!
By Mike Conlon | January 8, 2010
The US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP) is usually one of the biggest market moving numbers in the currency markets. Today’s number is no exception. The report came in for December at -85K, a very disappointing figure. Estimates were expecting this number to be flat, that we neither gained or lost jobs for the month. Although I had seen some pretty wild numbers tossed around, anywhere from +/- 200K. The revisions for the prior two months showed a net loss of 1K jobs, a negligible but encouraging figure.
So what does this all mean? Well in a word: trouble.
The US economy is not adding jobs nearly as quickly as the government had hoped. With all of the enormous amounts of stimulus spending, we have little to show for it. As a result of this figure, the US dollar reversed course and immediately began to weaken. If anyone had any delusions about a US rate hike in the first quarter of the year, they can pretty much forget about it as its now off of the table. Unless the dollar tanks so badly that Bernanke HAS to do something.
My guess is that we’re going to be looking at Japan 2.0 here in the US, our own version of their “lost decade”.
Just to illustrate the volatility that can occur around this figure, take a look at this chart of EUR/USD: (click chart to enlarge)
Close to 100 pips in a few minutes!
This could make an interesting year for the US dollar. There are 2 basic ways that we will see dollar strength this year; either through interest rate hikes or risk aversion plays. So while this logic may be a bit counter-intuitive to some, it’s going to be very important to take our clues from the other markets to see which theme is playing out.
And of course don’t forget that the dollar can continue to weaken well into this year, the question is going to be that if things don’t get better on the employment front, at what point does that filter through to the other markets?
Only time will tell.
To learn more about how these government figures can affect your savings, be sure to check out our forex trading courses!
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NFP Surprise!
By Mike Conlon | December 4, 2009
This morning, the always-sure-to-generate-volatility Non-Farm Payrolls came in at a “shocking” -11,000, vs. analyst expectations of -130,000. This comes on the heels of the Obama jobs summit, and certainly is good news for the economy.
If you believe it. And I’m not sure that the market does.
Let’s take a look at a chart of AUD/USD to see what I mean: (click chart to enlarge)
The reason we are looking at this chart is because the AUD/USD pair typifies the risk trade. When things in the economy are seemingly good, risk appetite increases and investors seek out higher yield. And that looks like what happened right out of the gate this morning when the number was announced.
But then, the pair proceeded to sell off. There are 2 reasons I can think of for this happening:
1. The market perceives that the economy is improving more rapidly than expected and therefore Bernanke and the Fed are going to be able to raise rates MUCH sooner than expected.
2. No one believes the numbers are real. This brings a heightened sense of fear to the markets. Not to mention that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) revised their figure way down from last month. (190K to 111K)
Right now USD is up against AUD, NZD, EUR. The anomalies today are JPY and CAD. The former I have spoken about at length about why the Japanese are trying to weaken the yen. CAD is experiencing strength due to its status as a “commodity currency’ and is benefiting from rising gold prices. In addition and more importantly, the Canadian economy actually added jobs vs. a loss last month. Good news for CAD.
Does that mean that this we’re going to stay this way all day?
Check back later to find out!!!
Isn’t it time you got a practice account to see this in real-time? Click here to get started!
Tags: account, AUD, Bernanke, blog, cad, commodity, currenc, currency, dow, economy, EUR, fear, fed, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, gold, Il, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, market, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, pair, payrolls, practice, practice account, rate, time, trade, USD, Yen
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ECB keeps rates at 1% (as expected). NFP & ECB Press Conference @ 8:30 am EST
By Sean Hyman | July 2, 2009
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 1% as expected. Now let’s see if Trichet provides anything revolutionary in his press conference at 8:30am EST. Also, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will be coming out at the same time and the U.S. Unemployment rate. So lots to keep track of around 8:30 am EST today!
Tags: ECB, Hyman, interest, interest rate, interest rates, lot, NFP, payrolls, Sean, Sean Hyman, time, Trichet, U.S., unemployment
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What is the biggest “market moving event” of the month typically?
By Sean Hyman | June 5, 2009
NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls in the U.S.
This event draws traders like bugs to a light.
However, it’s not always the most prudent thing to trade, especially for newer traders. Why? The volume can be thin before and during the event and even up to about 30 minutes to an hour or so afterwards.
You see, the big banks usually stop making new trades in the marker WELL BEFORE the NFP announcement because they don’t want to put on their huge trades (usually a billion units or more, no lie) right before an “unknown” like this. The pros aren’t much on gambling on what they don’t know and can’t quantify.
No, they want to know what they are facing before placing trades. So since the “big boys” are out of the picture, so is a lot of the “huge” fx volume that we’re all so accustomed to most of the time.
Why the huge draw to NFP? Because, since the volume is thin and the numbers can routinely come out well off of expectations, it set up an environment for huge pip moves. Take a look at the last NFP for EUR/USD. This pair normally moves an average of 180 pips over 24 hours right now. However, upon the NFP announcement, it moved well over 215 pips.
If you dare to trade this event…be aware that you should trade FAR FEWER lots than you normally trade…and stops would have to be wide. Be comfortable with the potential dollar loss that could happen and make sure it is no more than 5% OR LESS of your account equity. Get a demo to trade, here: http://www.fxedu.com/practice-forex-account
Tags: account, bank, blog, demo, dollar, EUR, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Hyman, lot, minutes, nfp, pair, payrolls, pip, pips, practice, Sean, Sean Hyman, time, trade, trader, trades, U.S., USD, volume
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Be aware of news events, even if you’re strictly a technical trader!
By Sean Hyman | June 5, 2009
Whether you’re a news trader…or a fundamental trader…or a technical trader (and don’t so much care about the news or fundamentals), you’d still better be aware of what’s happening and when it’s happening. Why?
Because you can get caught off guard if you’re not careful and a pair will spike very hard within minutes and you wouldn’t know why.
Take for instance, as of this writing, the Non-Farm Payrolls for the U.S. are expected to come out. They come out at 8:30am EST typically on the 1st Friday of the month. (A few times a year it’s the 2nd Friday of the month). This is probably the most widely watched news event out there. Thus, it can be one of the biggest “market movers” all month long. So you can see where you’d want to be aware of this.
How can you know what other events are important to be aware of? Check out Forex News | Forex Trading News | Currency Trading News and go to their calendar page. Then look for anything marked “high”. That means there is a high probability of it being a “market moving” event because it’s high in importance. That way, you don’t have to be a pro to know what news may be important to the currency market. You can simply scan for the “high” events and be aware of when they come out. This way, you can avoid a new entry right before an event if you want to…or you can close out all or part of your order ahead of the event…or you could simply tighten up your stop a bit more around these times.
Any of these could be ways to defend your account equity right before these events come out. You see, while technicals on the charts do take into account ‘all knowns”…data that is unknown can’t fully be factored on. Once the data is known, the technicals can factor them in quite quickly. However, by that time, damage could have already been done to your account balance. Click on the visuals to enlarge them.
Sean Hyman
www.forextradingblog.com
Tags: account, blog, charts, currency, currency market, currency trading, dailyfx, data, forex, forex news, forex trading, forextrading, fundamental, Hyman, minutes, pair, payrolls, Sean, Sean Hyman, technical, time, trade, trader, U.S.
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Get Ready to Trade today’s NFP Numbers. Also, Canada ADDED Jobs!
By Sean Hyman | May 8, 2009
Don’t forget that Non-Farm Payrolls comes out this morning at 8:30am EST. Previously, the numbers came in at -663,000 and it’s expected to improve to -600,000 this time.
Unemployment, however, is expected to rise from 8.5% to 8.9% this time.
Also worthy of noting…Canada just ADDED jobs as their report came out this morning…and their unemployment held steady with no increase.
Only one other country has ADDED jobs recently and that’s Australia.
So chalk one up for the “Commodity Currencies”.
Remember, the retail speculator feels the “need” to be the first one into the NFP trade. However, the pro waits 30 minutes to an hour or so and actually reads the report. Then they place their trades once they make their assessment and the huge volumes return to the market by then.
This is when big reversals can occur to the original move and sometimes be even larger than the initial spike move. So keep that in mind.
Get your free demo here and get ready to trade today’s NFP report: http://www.fxedu.com/practice-forex-account
Sean Hyman
www.forextradingblog.com
Tags: account, blog, canada, commodity, currencies, demo, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, market, nfp, payrolls, practice, Sean Hyman, time, trade, trades, unemployment, volume
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