Top Performers!
By Mike Conlon | March 3, 2010
Forex System Selector (FSS) Top Performers!
When considering any automated forex system providers, not only is it important to have good strategies, but also it is equally important to have a good platform. FSS has you covered on both fronts!
When investors select individual EAs to use, market conditions will determine how effective any one EA will be. If market conditions aren’t ideal, even the greatest strategies can have less-than-desired results.
And that’s the problem with the “one size fits all” approach. You wouldn’t take a sports car four-wheeling, would you? Nor would you want a golf cart on the Autobahn!
Not to worry, the FSS has you covered, as there are over 40 different systems that can excel in a variety of different market conditions. Now you have the power!
Well by now you must be thinking to yourself that, “these systems couldn’t possibly be any good”. Am I right?
Well how does earning 9000 pips in one month with a 95% winning rate sound to you? That’s the type of system you will find in the FSS.
Here’s a look at our top 5 performing systems from last month:
Are you skeptical like I am? Don’t take my word for it. Come see for yourself.
Sign up for a free, FSS demo account here and see what all of the excitement is about.
Say “good-bye” to individual EAs and MT4 and “hello” to FSS, the future of automated forex trading!
Tags: account, blog, demo, demo account, forex, forex trading, forextrading, free, fx, idea, Il, invest, investor, market, pip, pips, rate, ssi
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US Jobless Claims Rise!
By Mike Conlon | January 21, 2010
I don’t know why I even bother to express surprise anymore when every economic figure that comes out is “unexpected”. Trying to peg certain figures by using analyst expectations can be a fool’s folly. Let’s take today’s US Jobless claims figures which showed a rise of 36K more claims, as opposed to the analyst expectation of a small decrease.
As a result, the equity markets did an about face and proceeded to sell despite the fact the Goldman Sachs reported “record earnings”. Don’t lose sight of the fact that this comes on the back of the US taxpayer, but what’s a few billion dollars among friends?
So now that the stock market is down considerably, we have switched from mild risk-taking to risk aversion. This means that both the US dollar and Japanese yen are now the favored currencies of the day. Let’s take a look at a chart of the Aussie/Yen (AUD/JPY) to show the extreme volatility of this move. (click chart to enlarge)
As you can see, the market is still VERY skittish regarding any bad economic numbers that will show the recovery is not moving along as may have been previously thought. In markets as volatile as these, it’s important to keep tight stops and to look for reversals. As the new year is just starting, the markets are trying to find some sort of direction in what can only be described as “rudder-less ship trading”. In other words, extreme volatility.
As a quick aside, this AUD/JPY pair is down another 30 pips to 82.35 in just the time its taken me to put up this post. Wow. If you own stocks, today might be an ugly day.
to learn how to protect your stock portfolio through the forex market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To open a free, real-time practice accounts to follow these events live, click here!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, blog, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, Japan, jpy, market, mike conlon, pair, pips, practice, ssi, stock, stocks, time, Yen
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Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint!
By Mike Conlon | January 8, 2010
The US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP) is usually one of the biggest market moving numbers in the currency markets. Today’s number is no exception. The report came in for December at -85K, a very disappointing figure. Estimates were expecting this number to be flat, that we neither gained or lost jobs for the month. Although I had seen some pretty wild numbers tossed around, anywhere from +/- 200K. The revisions for the prior two months showed a net loss of 1K jobs, a negligible but encouraging figure.
So what does this all mean? Well in a word: trouble.
The US economy is not adding jobs nearly as quickly as the government had hoped. With all of the enormous amounts of stimulus spending, we have little to show for it. As a result of this figure, the US dollar reversed course and immediately began to weaken. If anyone had any delusions about a US rate hike in the first quarter of the year, they can pretty much forget about it as its now off of the table. Unless the dollar tanks so badly that Bernanke HAS to do something.
My guess is that we’re going to be looking at Japan 2.0 here in the US, our own version of their “lost decade”.
Just to illustrate the volatility that can occur around this figure, take a look at this chart of EUR/USD: (click chart to enlarge)
Close to 100 pips in a few minutes!
This could make an interesting year for the US dollar. There are 2 basic ways that we will see dollar strength this year; either through interest rate hikes or risk aversion plays. So while this logic may be a bit counter-intuitive to some, it’s going to be very important to take our clues from the other markets to see which theme is playing out.
And of course don’t forget that the dollar can continue to weaken well into this year, the question is going to be that if things don’t get better on the employment front, at what point does that filter through to the other markets?
Only time will tell.
To learn more about how these government figures can affect your savings, be sure to check out our forex trading courses!
Tags: Bernanke, blog, cad, course, currenc, currency, currency market, dollar, economy, EUR, eurusd, forex, forex trading, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, Mike Conlon, minutes, nfp, payrolls, pip, pips, time, USD
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Support and Resistance!
By Mike Conlon | December 10, 2009
You have probably heard the phrase “support and resistance” thrown around with regard to technical analysis and price charts. This is one of the most basic and fundamental concepts in analyzing charts. Support is the area on the chart where there is buying interest, and resistance is the area where there is selling interest.
Why do I mention this now? Yesterday’s trade on the New Zealand Kiwi (NZD/USD) is a perfect example of how support and resistance works. Let’s take a look at what happened yesterday and why support and resistance is such an important concept.
(Click charts to enlarge)
Looking at the above three charts, you can see how resistance was identified at .7185. In the first chart, once the price of the pair traded up to resistance, it paused and consolidated a bit as all of the sellers were absorbed at that level.
In the second chart, once the pair broke through resistance, it settled back down and now used what was formerly resistance as support. This means that there is now buying interest at that level.
In the third chart, you can see the pair extend for roughly another 100 pips.
What these chart illustrate is a classic case of when resistance becomes support. Savvy traders who can identify where these levels are can take advantage of low risk entry points for profitable trades. And the same thing also works on the other side, when support can become resistance.
Knowing how to identify these areas can be the difference between making and losing money. The professionals know how to find these areas, shouldn’t you?
To become more educated about technical analysis, be sure to enroll in our currency trading courses!
Want to test out you chart reading skills on a free, real-time practice account? Get started here!
Tags: account, blog, charts, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, dow, forex, forextrading, fundamental, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, market, Mike Conlon, money, nzd, pair, pips, practice, rate, ssi, technical, time, trade, trader, trades, USD
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Yen Trade Follow Up!
By Mike Conlon | December 7, 2009
Last week I called out a long trade on USD/JPY, saying:
“Earlier this week the yen reached 15-year highs at 84.80 vs. the US dollar due to the Dubai news on that huge doji candle. Combined with a stochastic crossover near the 20 level could mean a possible trend-reversal, at least in the near-term. If this pair can stay below 89, then I expect strength to continue. Should it breach 89, then the next stop could be the 90.75 level.”
Well Friday was that day for the pair. As USD/JPY rocketed through the 89 level, making a high of– 90.763– before retreating a tad to rest for the next move. As you can see, I pegged that one pretty good– within .013 of the high!
How was I able to get such an accurate prediction?
The answer is Fibonacci Retracement! If you are not familiar with this technical tool, you should become familiar ASAP.
Let’s look at the chart (click here to enlarge):
From the chart above, you can see all of the Fibonacci retracement levels. These numbers are areas of “natural” resistance or support. So when I am looking at a chart, and I believe there is going to be a pullback or in this case, a reversal, I always want to take a look at the Fib retracement levels.
One of the reasons why technical analysis is so compelling is because that at times it becomes a self-fulfilling proposition, so to speak. If a lot of traders are expecting something to happen at a certain level, then chances are something will happen.
In this case, that 90.5 level stands to serve as the “last layer” of support for those who are still short this pair. I can assure you that if I know this, many far more sophisticated traders and investors know this as well. This is why I typically round up or down anywhere from 10-50 pips depending upon how strong of a move I think might occur.
Around these levels you will typically see “stop running”– trades happening above or below the Fib level as traders know that typically other traders in the opposite position will place their stops just above or below that level. That’s why on this daily chart you can see a “wick” on the candle as the pair trades up through the 61.8% level before closing just below it.
This trade made approximately 350 pips in less than a week!
To learn more about how to spot trades such as this one or how to manage your positions once in a trade, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these trades real-time, get a free practice account here.
Tags: account, blog, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, dollar, dow, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Il, invest, Japan, jpy, market, news, pair, pips, practice, rate, ssi, time, trade, trader, trades, trend, USD, Yen
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Yen Weakness Persists!
By Mike Conlon | December 3, 2009
Yesterday I wrote here about how Japanese officials are attempting to jaw-bone the yen lower. Today it looks like its working. As of this writing, we’re looking at a move of almost exactly 1 point, or 100 pips in USD/JPY. Yen weakness is the theme of the day so far, with the yen depreciating 1.12% vs. USD, 1.38% vs. AUD, 1.35% vs. EUR.
Let’ take a look at today’s chart vs. yesterday’s on USD/JPY: (click charts to enlarge)
As you can see from the charts, today’s move in this pair is considered a “gap” up, meaning that there was strong demand to own this pair. This is likely the result of some short covering and unwinding of the carry trade, which has occurred due to the reasons I outlined in yesterday’s article.
This will show us if a new trend is emerging if price doesn’t return to “fill the gap”. I identified around the 89 level as the first layer of resistance yesterday so let’s wait to see if we can get to that level and then what occurs if we get there.
To follow this trade real-time in a free, practice trading account, click here.
To learn more about technical analysis in the forex market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
Tags: account, AUD, blog, charts, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, EUR, forex, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, Il, Japan, jpy, lower, market, Mike Conlon, pair, pip, pips, practice, technical, time, trade, trend, USD, Yen
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Adv GDP comes in at 3.5%!
By Mike Conlon | October 29, 2009
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Stock futures have spiked so that a much stronger start to the session appears to be in order. The improved tone comes in the wake of the latest dose of data. According to the advance third quarter GDP report, economic output increased at an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 3.5%, which is better than the 3.2% increase that was expected. That’s a sharp upturn from the 0.7% decline that was registered in the second quarter. Personal consumption during the third quarter was considerably strong. It came in with a 3.4% increase, which is better than the 3.1% increase that was widely expected and up from the 0.9% decline that was posted in the second quarter. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24 came in at 530,000, which is a bit more than the 525,000 initial claims that economists had come to expect. The latest tally was essentially in-line with the previous week’s tally of 531,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 5.797 million from 5.945 million. (from yahoo finance)
So with the “fear” from this number abated, stocks up, US dollar (USD) and Japanese yen (JPY) down as risk-taking is back in play! Top gainers so far are Aussie (AUD) and Kiwi (NZD), as should be expected.
Take a look at the 5-min chart of AUD/USD (click chart to enlarge)
Having fun yet? Now up 60 pips in 20 minutes!
Now that the US economy appears to be recovering, with the first quarter over quarter growth in nearly a year, the carry trade is back on in full force as Australia is the place to be for yield seeking investors.
To learn more about how to do a carry trade, please check out our currency trading courses!
To follow the action live in a free, real-time practice trading account, click here!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, blog, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, dollar, dow, economy, forex, forextrading, invest, investor, jpy, market, Mike Conlon, nzd, pips, practice, rate, ssi, stocks, time, trade, USD, Yen
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Trade Update- GBP/AUD!
By Mike Conlon | October 21, 2009
As I’m sure you know by now, GBP had a nice move overnight and is currently up vs. (USD & JPY). Earlier this morning, it was also up a lot vs. AUD (this trade) to 1.8. When I saw this this morning, I placed a protective stop at 1.795 for another piece of my position and got stopped out on that piece.
Since that time, GBP/AUD has traded down and is now at 1.782. Anytime I am in a position that has a significant move, the DAY AFTER, I enter a new or confirm an older position, I will always take some profits. 150 pips looked good to me.
The commodity currencies, particularly NZD and AUD, are having good days as Reserve Bank Governor Bollard stated that the fact that the Kiwi is already strong would not preclude them from raising interest rates. Similar thoughts were made by Australia’s Glenn Stevens as well.
So while that all but kills any further chance of this trade succeeding more than it already has, I’m still going to sit in this last piece and see what happens. So my stop is at 1.766, my entry price on the initial trade.
Let’s see what happens as the all bank-talk seems to be heating up!
Tags: AUD, Australia, bank, commodity, currenc, currencies, gbp, interest, interest rate, interest rates, jpy, Kiwi, lot, Mike Conlon, nzd, pip, pips, time, trade, USD
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GBP/AUD Trade Follow-Up!
By Mike Conlon | October 20, 2009
I just wanted to give readers a heads up on this trade that I called out last week. To give you a little background, I don’t typically like to say that I am doing this or that, but rather like to point out “possible trades” with “theoretical results.” Whether I am actually in the trade or not is immaterial for discussion purposes on this blog, as I don’t want to be seen as recommending specific trades, but rather as just trying to point out some tidbits that may be unconventional to some.
The reason I say this (and have disclaimers LOL) is because right after I posted this initial trade idea, I got a call from a good friend of mine who asked me in no uncertain terms, “Are you Nuts?” When I asked what he meant he gave me the usual response of don’t fight the trend, the fundamentals don’t add up, the Aussie is benefiting from the carry trade, BOE trying to keep GBP low through further threats of more QE, etc. And while I was aware of all of these factors before I picked this trade, something told me I should investigate this a little further.
Perhaps it was yesterdays sell-off of this pair that had me second guessing myself, but I realized that when dealing with trend-reversals rarely do they happen and then go strait up. So I decided to do some multi-time frame analysis.
Now you may be asking yourself, why don’t you use technical indicators? Well, I do, but do after the fact as confirmation to see if it matches up with what I’m seeing from the price action on the chart. What I’d rather do is begin looking at shorter time-frames to see if any discernible patterns are emerging.
Voila! I dropped down 1 time-frame (which for me is the 4-hour chart) and noticed what I thought to be a possible cup & handle formation. This is a very bullish pattern if it completes properly. Let’s look at the chart (click to enlarge):
Now you’ll have to forgive my awful chart-drawing skills, but as you can see, there is a very rudimentary c&h formation in progress. Should this pair breakout above the “brim” of the cup at around 1.785, then we could see some momentum to the upside.
To come up with a target price, I added the height of the cup to the breakout price of the handle and came up with roughly 500 pips. But because I am already in this trade (half position- I took some profits), I don’t need to take any action at this point. But if this should breakout above the handle, then one could play the break-out by buying just above that price level.
So while at this point the fundamentals still don’t add up for this trade, stranger things have happened. Its amazing to watch how the technicals sometimes predict fundamental action. Whether or not it will in this case is anyone’s guess. But that is what trading is about, not trying to guess where the market is going, but rather trying to increase your odds that a particular action may take place and having sufficient risk management in place if it doesn’t occur.
So keep an eye on this pair to see if this formation “activates”, and if so, listen to the news to see if anything material has taken place. Or you can just check back here… as I will be sure to update.
Good trading to all!
To learn about these possible set-ups, be sure to check out our forex trading courses!
Or get a live demo account to follow in real-time!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, blog, course, demo, dow, forex, forex trading, forextrading, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, invest, live, market, Mike Conlon, momentum, news, pair, pip, pips, ssi, technical, time, trade, trades, trend
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GBP Still Strong!
By Mike Conlon | October 16, 2009
The British pound is still strong today, showing a little bit of follow through from yesterdays gains. Yesterday I called out a trade in GBP/AUD as a low risk opportunity based on some technical factors, despite the fact that the trade was “counter-trend”. Let’s see how its doing:
(click charts to enlarge)
As you can see, this trade is up about 169 pips from yesterdays entry price (1.7828-1.7659=169 pips). While you’re not going to be able to retire just yet LOL, this high probabilty set-up is showing some initial gains and looks promising going forward. To give you an idea of what this means, with just one lot, you would have made $169 if you were in this trade.
And the cost to get into this trade? Just $50 in margin. So in theory, you put up $50 to make $169. That’s pretty good coin! Now imagine what happens when you use the multiplier effect of leverage!
While its never a good idea to over-leverage your account, taking high probability trade set-ups can be extremely profitable if you know what you’re doing!
To learn about how to spot trade set-ups such as these, check out our currency trading courses here.
Want to test my calls in real time with a practice account of your own? Get started here.
Tags: account, AUD, blog, British, charts, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, forex, forextrading, fx, fxedu, gbp, idea, Il, lot, Mike Conlon, pip, pips, pound, practice, practice account, real time, spot, technical, tip, trade, trend
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