EURUSD
By Laetitia Vaval | October 11, 2007
I just entered a long EURUSD position at 1.4215. I realize this is probably not an ideal entry point I realize, but I’ve been away for a while and didn’t get a chance to trade before. The Euro tested an all-time high at 1.4280 almost 2 weeks ago and has now been in a steady uptrend for the past 3 days. It seems that it is either about to test this all-time again to form a double top or trade past this level and toward 1.43.
In the case that a double top forms, my upside is: 1.4280-1.42153 = 65pips. I must therefore place my stop about 35 pips below my entry point (1.4215) at 1.4180 in order to have a 2:1 risk reward ratio. If the Euro breaks that all-time high then it could possibly trade up to 1.43 and higher and in that case.
U.S. retail sales are being released tomorrow morning at 8:30, and it will affect my trade if it differs from expectations as the EURUSD is the primary currency pair affected. I’ll need to closely monitor the trade during the release since there will be a lot of volatility and my stop might be too tight. will update after the release.
Tags: eurusd, retail sales, wall street warriors
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Canadian Retail Sales - part 2
By Laetitia Vaval | September 21, 2007
So the Canadian Retail Sales numbers came out, and I was completely wrong since they came out worse than expected (-0.8% vs. 0.0% expected). Of course, the USD shot up about 30pips and now I’m down about 25pips. That’ll teach me NOT to make my own assumptions about economic data!
Tags: dow, economic release, forex market, pips, retail sales, wall street warriors
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Canadian Retail Sales - Part 1
By Laetitia Vaval | September 21, 2007
Canadian retail sales will be released in a few moments. Right now my USDCAD short is at 1.0021. I’m hoping for this number to dip below 1.0000 once the data is released. Canadian wholesale sales were released yesterday morning and came out better than expected. Could this be an indicator of better than expected retail sales ? will update in a few mins
Tags: cad, forex, retail sales, wall street warrior
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US Retail Sales
By Laetitia Vaval | September 14, 2007
As I wrote yesterday, I had a short position in the USDJPY when I left the office. At 12:30 GMT, the August US Advance Retail Sales came out at 0.3% ( vs. 0.5% expected). Although this number came out slightly below expectations, the real disappointment came from US Retail Sales LESS Autos (-0.4% vs. 0.2% expected). This number indicates that US consumers are spending less money and is reflected on the USDJPY chart (above) within minutes of its release. I was short from 115.320 kept my position overnight. The USD weakened this morning in light of the disappointing Retail Sales release and the USDJPY dropped to a low of 114.35. I decided to buy back at 114.51 as I was starting to see a reversal and the beginning of a new uptrend. I made a 81pip profit.
I am still holding onto the EURUSD position that I bought yesterday at 1.3894. As I write, it is trading at 1.385.
Tags: currency trading, eurusd, forex, forextrading, jpy, retail sales, wall street warrior
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Trading when economic data is released
By Laetitia Vaval | September 13, 2007
Today, I’m going to write a little bit about having a position open when major economic data is released. As I wrote on my previous thread, I opened a long position in the GBPUSD yesterday and decided to keep my position overnight. By doing so I made a major mistake: I didn’t check the economic calendar on DailyFx and therefore was not aware that the UK was releasing its RICS House Price Balance for the month of August at 23:01GMT. This indicator measures the costs of homes in the U.K. and was estimated to come out at 10.0%. A rise in house prices usually reflects an overall strong housing market and strong economy. However, this number came out at -1.8% much below expectations and even showed a decrease in the cost of homes — an indicator of an overall weak economy.
Of course the GBPUSD reacted to this disapointing news and dipped about 30pips below the level it was trading at before the release. Having placed my stop at 2.027, I was stopped out at 19:34 EST. The fact that I was not aware of this important overnight news release didn’t allow me to adjust my stop price since I should have foreshadowed that the GBPUSD would be fluctuating greatly following the release. So as I wrote earlier, I was stopped out at 2.027 — a 46pip loss. Of course, the pound traded back up slowly and peaked at 2.03440 mid-day today.
This mistake is in some way very valuable because it taught me to check which indicators will be released overnight, the consequences they may have on the positions I am holding and how to make the necessary adjustements to avoid big losses.
Today, I am trading the EURUSD and the USDJPY, and have to take into consideration that major economic releases will be coming out tonight regarding both the US and Japan. At 8:30 EST tomorrow morning, Advance Retail Sales - a major market moving indicator — will be released and could trigger a rather large move for the EURUSD if not in line with the 0.5% expectations for August. Japan will also be releasing some relatively important data overnight regarding Industrial Production — which could have a market moving impact on the USDJPY.
I’m going to hold my EURUSD position overnight, as I am looking to keep it for a longer period of time. I’m going to make sure I place a large enough stop, so that I do not get stopped out of my position if the US economic numbers come out better than expected. I’m going to place my stop at 1.3777 which was a good support level on 09/10/07.
Tags: dailyfx, dow, economic release, eurusd, gbp, housing market, pips, retail sales, wall street warriors
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