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  • Opinions - Not Facts

    This blog consists of contributions from FX EDU staff, executives and people that have a relationship with FX EDU. In spirit of a blog, the posts are conversational and opinionated. However, they are not official FX EDU policy and not double-checked for facts. The authors are providing information that they believe to be true or opinions they hold. To verify information or check official FX EDU policy, please contact FX EDU through the firm's official website, www.fxedu.com.
  • US Earnings On Tap!

    By Mike Conlon | July 12, 2010

    This week starts earnings season for US companies and, rightly or wrongly, will help show whether or not economic progress is occurring.  We’ve witnessed the disconnect between corporate profits and the “real economy”—namely jobs—and good corporate earnings will give the unemployed hope that hiring may be soon to follow.

    In the UK, GDP figures came in as expected showing slightly positive growth for the quarter, and there was an article over the weekend claiming that the UK’s proposed bank requirements would lead to a double-dip recession.

    In the Euro zone, potential fears of bank solvency issues were balanced out by German economic strength measured by employment and industrial production figures.  A lower Euro had helped German exports and if the banks can “pass” the stress tests without setting off a chain reaction, then the Euro could stabilize near these levels.

    In Japan, the ruling party lost control of the upper house in elections, providing political uncertainty and causing the Yen to sell-off overnight.  However, overall risk aversion has brought strength back to the Yen.

    In the forex market:

    Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is lower on risk aversion, despite the fact that home loans rose for the first time in 8 months.  However, futures are showing that traders are decreasing their bets for an Aussie rise vs. the Dollar.  US corporate earnings will be the major driving force this week, with better numbers encouraging risk appetite.

    Kiwi (NZD):  The Kiwi is also lower on risk fears despite the fact that the NZ budget deficit came in narrower than expected.  Home prices came in slightly lower, but still posting gains of 5.2%.  Inflation figures are due out later this week.

    Loonie (CAD):  Not a lot of news for the Loonie this week but expect it to be extra sensitive to US corporate earnings this week.  The US is largest importer of Canadian goods and services.

    Euro (EUR):  The Euro is also lower as the policy makers are already calling for better capitalization of the banks before the results of the stress tests are released.  It is no secret that banks would be better off with more capital; the problem is whether or not increased capital requirements will hamper growth.  Germany is showing that its economy is still strong, and that may be enough to out-weigh the negativity surrounding the Euro.

    Pound (GBP):  The pound is lower as DGP figures showed .3% growth in the first quarter; however the current account deficit is at its widest margin since 2007.  Economists are expecting better growth in the 2nd quarter, before the impact of fiscal tightening takes place.  The Pound traded below 1.50 earlier but has since rebounded higher.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is seeing some strength this morning as risk aversion is present at the start of the US session.  US CPI and PPI figures are due out later this week, but all eyes will be on the US corporate earnings reports.  Good earnings will provide hope that hiring may be around the corner, but at the end of the day we may still be in the “tale of 2 economies”, with companies thriving while the unemployed are crying.  Bad corporate earnings could send the markets reeling, so expect volatility in the short-term.

    Yen (JPY):  Overnight, the ruling party lost control of the upper house of government, providing political uncertainty and the fear that Japan may have trouble attempting to tackle its deficit.  The Yen was lower, but is now seeing strength on risk aversion.  The Bank of Japan Monetary policy meeting is taking place this week but don’t expect them to move on rates.  Japan will trade this week on risk themes.

    So the market and the US government are counting on good corporate earnings to provide confidence that the economic picture may be improving.  With higher profits, the likely conclusion is that companies will begin hiring again which will hopefully help lower unemployment.

    However, this may not necessarily be the case.  Companies are fearful of the current economic climate as potential new rules, regulations, and taxes spur hesitation.  Companies will be very cautious when looking to expand and could be quite content with their present situation.

    Whether or not this is the case remains to be seen as the market expects good earnings.  Should the numbers be average or even bad, then that could open up a whole new can of worms.

    So expect volatility this week, and be ready to profit from short-term fluctuations should the situation present itself.

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »

    Chinese Slowdown To Derail Recovery?

    By Mike Conlon | July 1, 2010

    Overnight, manufacturing growth slowed in China more than expected as the Chinese look to curtail inflation and their housing market.  While the market views this as negative, China has been expanding at a break-neck pace and my opinion that slower, more sustainable growth should be welcome.

    However, this spotlights the reduction in world demand as economies pare back to combat deficits and economic uncertainty and lack of confidence is causing consumers to reduce consumption.

    In the UK, industrial production figures show a slight drop from the previous month, however in Japan, the Tankan manufacturing confidence figures fell less than expected.

    Retail sales figures were lower in both Australia and Germany, though German manufacturing numbers were in line with expectations.

    In the Euro zone, a successful bond auction from Spain countered yesterday’s news that Moody’s ratings agency was putting Spain’s AAA credit rating under review.

    And lastly, in the US, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, showing 472K vs. an expectation of 460K.  This does not bode well for tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report, though it could be setting us up for a surprise to the upside.

    So this morning we are seeing US dollar weakness, and Euro and Yen strength.

    In the forex market:

    Aussie (AUD):   The Aussie is lower this morning as retail sales figures and building permits declined giving investors’ reason to believe that Australia may be finished with rate hikes for the rest of the year.

    Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower this morning as the global slowdown and the news out of China is putting pressure on the currency.

    Loonie (CAD):  The Loonie is lower as oil is down, but it is trading higher vs. the Dollar.  Yesterday’s GDP figures caused selling in the Loonie and today Dollar weakness is paring some of those losses.

    Euro (EUR):   The Euro is higher across the board as a successful bond auction in Spain is giving the market confidence that the banking situation may not be as bad as expected.  In about three weeks’ time, the results of the bank stress tests will be in and that will show the true health of Euro zone banks.

    Pound (GBP):  The pound is mixed this morning, trading back over 1.50 vs. USD despite the fact that manufacturing figures came in slightly lower than last month but in line with expectations.  At this point, there is more confidence in the measures the UK is taking with regard to its finances than what is happening in the US, and this is reflected in recent Pound strength vs. the Dollar.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is lower across the board as jobless claims came in higher than expected showing that the employment picture is not getting better.  In addition, uncertainty over the financial regulation bill is causing trepidation, but overall the economy is still moving forward despite the employment picture.  According to Alan Greenspan, our former Fed chief, this is a “normal slowdown” within the greater context of recovery.

    Yen (JPY):   The Yen is showing strength this morning though giving back some earlier gains.  The Nikkei was down 2% last night, providing the Yen with a bid.  The Chinese slowdown as caused the un-wind of carry trades, and the Yen is trading at a 6-month high vs. the Dollar.

    As I mentioned yesterday, the only thing that matters here in the US is jobs.  The employment picture is not improving and tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report had better be decent or we could see a sell-off going into the long 4th of July holiday weekend.

    I hate to continue to harp on policy here in the US, but there is a distinct divide in the economy.  To put it bluntly, you have those that receive government hand-outs and those that eventually pay for it.  One group is productive, the other isn’t.

    Congressional plans to extend unemployment benefits are one such problem.  While I feel badly for those unable to find work, at some point you have to lower your expectations and regroup.  Because unemployment benefits are essentially equal to minimum wage, there is a disincentive to get off of the couch and work.

    In addition, the financial regulation bill (which in my opinion is absolutely needed), has missed the mark.  Two major problems that caused the financial mess have gone largely untouched (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

    Instead we’re going to get a bunch of rules and a business climate that is deemed unfriendly to business, which will help perpetuate the cycle of unemployment.  Add future tax hikes to the mix and you can see where this is going.  When it comes time for investors to decide where to invest their money, are they going to choose countries that are making an effort to return to fiscal responsibility, or the country with a blatant disregard for it?

    I know what I would do.  Hopefully, you do too!

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »

    Budget Cuts!

    By Mike Conlon | June 22, 2010

    The British pound is lower this morning as the UK budget showed a commitment to a balanced budget and a reduction in spending of close to 30 billion pounds annually.  This should come as no surprise to the market, yet the Pound is lower as the UK attempts to cut its deficit.

    This coincides with some concerns in the market over European bank funding problems which are causing some risk aversion in the market this morning.  In addition, yesterday’s enthusiastic response to the Chinese announcement to allow the Yuan to float was short-lived as the US stock market finished the session lower, and futures are pointing to a lower open this morning as well.

    Consumer prices were higher in Canada, and there was a note out this morning saying that central banks around the globe are starting to diversify away from the Euro and into the Aussie and Loonie.  This could potentially affect their status as “risk assets” as the market is starting to realize that these are strong economies.

    So we could see some mixed trading going forward, as the risk-on, risk-off mentality works its way out of the market and these currencies begin to trade on their own fundamentals.  Japanese yen will still see gains during risky times as it is still the primary funder of carry-trades, but it will be interesting to see if traders actually unwind the carry trades or add to them going forward.

    In the forex market:

    Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is mixed this morning on risk-aversion, though it appears to be bouncing off its lows from the Euro session.  Demand for the Aussie is higher because of the news from its largest trading partner, China.  In addition, the news about central banks diversifying away from the Euro to the Aussie have slightly out-weighed risk themes.

    Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is affected more by risk aversion this morning than the Aussie, as the NZ economy is not deemed large or strong enough to receive diversified funds from central banks that are moving out of Euros.

    Loonie (CAD):   The Loonie is higher across the board as CPI figures came in .1% higher than expected to 1.4%.  This shows that Canadian economy is still chugging along and that the potential for rate hikes is still on the table.  This makes the Loonie a destination for funds from central banks diversifying away from the Euro, with the added benefit of potential rate hikes.

    Euro (EUR):  The Euro is lower this morning despite the fact that German business confidence was higher.  An ECB council member said that some banks are facing funding problems.  This comes in advance of the European bank stress tests which are due out sometime next month and could be the next landmine that sends the Euro lower.  Banks in Spain may borrow 10 billion euro from its bank-rescue fund.

    Pound (GBP):  The Pound is also lower as the UK announced its emergency budget which showed a commitment to deficit reduction by reducing spending and setting the table for tax hikes down the road.  This has heightened the fear of double-dip recession in the UK, but these announced measures have likely saved the UK top-credit rating from downgrades, which would make it more expensive for them to borrow.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is mostly lower this morning despite some of the risk in the market.  The Chinese decision to allow the Yuan to float more freely and be tied to a basket of currencies and not the US dollar alone is likely causing some selling.  Existing home sales are due out later this morning and could provide a snapshot of the housing market ahead of the FOMC meeting.

    Yen (JPY):  The Yen is higher on risk aversion due largely in part to the Euro debt crisis.  In addition, Prime Minister Kan pledged to balance the Japanese budget in 10 years and to reduce bond sales to gain investor confidence.  This is quite the task as Japan has the world’s largest budget deficit, so reduced spending and tax changes may be seen as welcome by the markets.

    Just when things start to quiet down, the Euro debt crisis comes screaming back into the room and reminds investors that the EU problems have not been solved.  Bank funding problems and the upcoming stress tests may show an ugly picture of the financial health of the Euro zone.

    Meanwhile, while everyone yesterday lauded the Chinese announcement to allow the Yuan to float more freely, the realization that they now want to use a basket of currencies to peg to (including the potentially sinking ship Euro) is just another way to manipulate their currency to attempt to keep it low.

    Canada and Australia could be major beneficiaries of both the Chinese and Euro zone news.  Commodity prices have pulled back this morning, but both of these countries have strong economies and that is reflected in their currency gains this morning.

    Stay tuned, this may not be a lazy summer after all!

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »

    What Is Biflation?

    By Mike Conlon | June 17, 2010

    One of the economic terms du jour is biflation, which is a condition marked by both simultaneous inflation and deflation.  This is becoming more and more significant as central banks around the globe grapple with how to set policy.  Today’s US CPI figure is a perfect example of this.

    The US Consumer Price Index showed a decline of .2%, yet the core rate rose .1% which both were in-line with expectations.  We are most likely in a condition here in the US where we are going to experience commodity inflation, but housing deflation.  It is important to pay attention to how the Fed will react to these figures.  For years we heard that there was no inflation, yet every time you went to the gas station, you thought differently.  You aren’t crazy; we’re experiencing biflation.

    Retail sales figures in the UK advanced, though analysts are attributing it to the rise in sales of flat-screen TVs due to the World Cup.  While yes, the Brits are crazy about their team, I think there is probably a little more to the story than just soccer.

    The Euro is higher as well after a bond auction in Spain which sold the maximum set for auction.  This flies in the face of the rumor about Spain setting up an emergency credit line, as the market devoured this offering showing confidence in the Spain and the Euro zone.

    In the forex market:

    Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie has started lower this morning despite some risk-taking in the market.  It is higher vs. USD, but lagging JPY.  The latter trade could reverse today and was possibly a function of Asian stocks (particularly the Nikkei) being down today.  In addition, the RBA said that they would likely only raise rates one more time this year, giving investors a reason to turn elsewhere.

    Kiwi (NZD):  So the Aussie’s loss is the Kiwi’s gain, despite consumer confidence figures which fell 3.2%.  Nevertheless, the Kiwi is higher on initial risk appetite in the market.

    Loonie (CAD):  The Loonie is lower this morning taking its cues from oil, as it so often does.  Oil is “lower” to $77.25, off yesterday’s highs of just under $78.  In addition, Canadian wholesale sales fell .3%, vs. an expectation of a rise of .3%.  So the Loonie is weaker across the board despite some of the risk appetite.

    Euro (EUR):  The Euro is higher this morning as a successful bond auction from Spain put rumors to bed and showed renewed confidence in the Euro zone.

    Pound (GBP):  Retails sales came in better than expected at .5% vs. an expectation of .1%, which is being attributed to World Cup soccer.  However, I believe the economic story in the UK is a good one, as recovery and confidence in the new government is bolstering growth.  In addition, the BOE said that they would most likely raise rates before selling bonds when they remove economic stimulus.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is weaker this morning as CPI fell, but was in line with expectations.  In addition, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, posting a gain of 472K vs. an expectation of 450K.  However, stock futures are higher as the market is becoming more conditioned to biflation, and increased jobless claims are almost an afterthought.

    Yen (JPY):  The Yen is mixed this morning, starting higher because the Nikkei was lower, but giving back gains as risk appetite is increasing.  However, US dollar weakness vs. the Yen is apparent as the focus is off of North America (USD, CAD) this morning.

    This morning is a bit of a mixed bag, with the market taking its cues from Europe and selling North America.  Good news in the Euro zone and the UK are propelling those currencies higher, and stocks are initially higher here in the US as the market shrugs off deflationary numbers and a bad unemployment report.

    The reason the CPI data doesn’t seem as important is because the market is getting used to the notion of biflation.  I used to discuss this issue as the “tale of two economies”, but I suppose this term just tidies things up.  However it will become important to both consumers and investors alike as this condition becomes more apparent.

    However, I suspect we could see a US stock market sell-off today, as the market isn’t quite sure what to make of this.

    Until then, take advantage of the market volatility!

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »

    E-Z Economy!

    By Mike Conlon | April 7, 2010

    The market is showing some mild risk aversion this morning as Euro zone GDP figures came in unchanged, showing neither growth nor contraction.  Signs that the EZ economy is slowing should come as no surprise as the mounting debt problems of its members show that austerity measures are intended to reign in government spending and not to provide additional stimulus.  The fact that growth is not negative is actually a positive sign in my eyes, though the market disagrees this morning.

    The Pound is also lower this morning as service growth came in lighter than expected, in addition to the news that polls show that a “hung Parliament” may become more likely at next month’s election.

    Meanwhile, oil is trading below 86 and gold is around 1135, putting mild pressure on the commodity currencies.

    The big news, however, is that there is increased speculation that a G-20 attempt to get China to revalue its Yuan may prove more successful than the bilateral approaches that had been tried before.  It’s sort of like an intervention, where the drug addict has to hear it from everybody rather than just a few.  I suspect we will begin seeing some Yuan strengthening in the near future.

    In the forex market:

    Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is marginally lower this morning on risk aversion themes after reaching an 18-month high vs. the Japanese yen.  It is widely expected that the RBA is not finished with rate hikes this year as economic recovery is strong due to exports which may result in inflation.  Tomorrow they will report employment figures.

    Loonie (CAD):  The Loonie is slightly lower this morning as oil prices are off a bit, but more and more investors are getting hip to the fact that the Loonie is poised for gains this year as it hovers around parity with USD.  While yesterday I swapped the Loonie and Kiwi in the “risk hierarchy”, it doesn’t appear as though the market agrees with me.  Yet.

    Kiwi (NZD):   The Kiwi is lower on risk themes as well, though slightly higher against the Loonie.  I still think the Canadian economy is poised to do better this year, but the interest rate differentials may prove to be the difference.  The Kiwi is setting up nicely as a buy vs. the Loonie based on technical factors.

    Euro (EUR):  The Euro is lower this morning and looks like it is going to re-test its lows of the year and beyond, especially if it continues receive “bad” economic news.  During the financial crisis, the ECB did not lower rates as much as the US and the UK, so the Euro maintained some semblance of strength once global economic recovery started.  Now that the other economies around the world appear to be further along, we could see some additional Euro weakness from a growth perspective, as well as any hidden debt “land mines” that could come about from some of the other PIIGS countries.

    Pound (GBP):  The Pound is lower this morning as services growth came in less than expected, renewing fears that there may be too much optimism about the UK economy.  The BOE is expected to maintain interest rates and its bond-purchase in place as it may be too early to withdraw as economic recovery may be too nascent.  With the additional concerns regarding the elections next month, fears are that the UK could see the dreaded “double-dip”.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is higher against all but the Yen as risk themes are driving the market this morning.  A few of the Fed governors including Bernanke are expected to speak today which should be nothing more than a CYA session.

    Yen (JPY):  The Yen is higher this morning as the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and is benefiting from the marginal risk aversion we are seeing in the market.  The BOJ did not cave in to ever-increasing pressure from the government to stimulate the economy, despite the fact that economic recovery is taking place alongside of deflation.  The Japanese have experienced this type of economy for a long time so the BOJ may be content to allow recovery to happen without increased measures.

    Problems still persist in the Euro zone and slowing recovery could send money and investment elsewhere.  The debt issues present among the PIIGS countries highlighted by Greece are no secret.  There is still fear in the marketplace, though that fear is starting to dissipate as more and more “good” economic news begins to outweigh the “bad”.

    Because the forex market is inter-relational, there is always one currency benefitting at the expense of another.  For some time now, one of the MAJOR economies of the world (China) has not participated in this market, which some believe was a major cause of the financial crisis.

    Now that there is increased pressure to allow the Yuan to “re-value” or perhaps even “fluctuate”, there may be another player in the not so distant future that could provide one more outlet for money flow.  Keep a careful eye on how this begins to play out.  While nothing will change overnight, the prospect of a floating Yuan could bring world economies back closer to equilibrium.

    Or the whole thing could blow up and a trade war ensues with China labeled a “currency manipulator” or whatever PC term they are using today.  Either way, this is an important story to follow as it will have an effect on world economies and thus the forex market.

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | No Comments »

    What is Chermany?

    By Mike Conlon | March 18, 2010

    Remember this word: Chermany.  It is the new, hip lingo for speaking about China and Germany.  What do these two have in common, you may ask?  These are the top 2 largest exporters of manufactured goods in the world.  As you might expect, this means that they have trade surpluses and thus are in positions of great strength on the world economic scene.  Because of this, rightly or wrongly, Chermany feels like they can dictate terms to the rest of the world.

    So it should come as no surprise that Germany is leading the charge to obstruct bailout plans to Greece in the drama that has been unfolding.  In the latest act, Germany is saying Greece should seek economic aid from the IMF, and not the EU.  This undermines previous efforts made to assure the marketplace that this situation is under control.  As a result, mild risk aversion is the early-morning theme.

    The other side to this new term is China.  While I don’t focus on China too often as we can’t trade in their currency, their importance on the world stage cannot be understated.  China has “pegged” their currency to the US dollar in an effort to keep it from floating freely in the market like almost every other currency out there.  Many would say that this is blatant currency manipulation, and has been one of the major reasons why they have accrued such an economic surplus.  Because they have been allowed to operate under these conditions for some time, their ill-gotten wealth has now emboldened them to continue with this policy, regardless of its impact on world economics.  The US is now trying to turn up the heat on China, and whether or not anything comes of this remains to be seen.  Stay tuned.

    In currencies:

    Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is lower this morning on risk aversion and on concerns that China will take steps to slow down their economy.  Because China is a major importer of Australian raw materials, this could have an impact on the Aussie going forward.

    Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher this morning, bucking risk aversion and quite frankly I’m not sure what’s going on here.  They came out with Consumer Confidence figures in the overnight session, but I can’t get a good reading on whether or not those figures were significantly better or not.  Regardless, the market seems to like the Kiwi, as it’s up across the board.

    Loonie (CAD):  The Loonie is slightly higher this morning, and near flat with Yen and the US dollar. They are down-playing concerns of Dollar/Loonie parity as this seems to be a foregone conclusion.  There was some concern that the government may try to intervene, however this does not appear to be the case.

    Euro (EUR):  The Euro is lower today in response to German resistance to the Greek bailout.  The rest of the EU thought they had measures in place, only to find out that Germany was not on board.  Chancellor Merkel mentioned the other day that “expulsion” should be an option for countries that don’t comply with EU membership stipulations.

    Pound (GBP):  The Pound is lower this morning as good news that the budget deficit for February was less-than-expected was trumped by disappointing mortgage approvals.  In addition, the political rhetoric is starting to heat up which is contributing to the fears of a “hung Parliament”.

    Dollar (USD):   The Dollar started the morning higher on risk aversion but now looks like it this may reverse after the CPI and initial jobless claims figures came out.  As I mentioned yesterday with the PPI figures, today’s CPI figures show lower-than-expected gains which is basically buying time for the Fed to keep rates low for that “extended period” they love so much.  As long as the Euro doesn’t implode, I expect risk-taking may occur by the end of the day.

    Yen (JPY):
      Word today is that the measures the BOJ took yesterday in doubling the monetary easing program may have little effect on deflation.  As I mentioned yesterday, just because the amount of money available for loan increases, does not mean it will be lent out.  If demand decreases, then prices typically fall.  We are seeing this exact same situation here in the US housing market.

    The world economy is a cycle of “give and take”.   What is starting to become apparent is that countries that benefit from low currency value whether through manipulation (China) or through inclusion in a monetary union (Germany) need to be wary that by effectively “cornering” the manufacturing market, they are setting up untenable situations that can only end badly.

    It will be interesting to see if the market forces Chermany to take action, or if they try to “take their toys and go home”.   Either way, world economic recovery hangs in the balance.

    To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

    To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!


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    Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 1 Comment »

    Pound Gains!

    By Mike Conlon | January 13, 2010

    The British pound (GBP) is trading higher after a BOE policy maker stated that interest rates in the UK may need to rise this year.  This could signal the end to the Quantitative Easing (QE) policy the UK had undertaken to stimulate its economy.

    So what’s left to do?

    Sit back and wait.

    This is a refreshing stance in world where instant and immediate gratification need to happen to keep the public at bay.  What this policy-maker is essentially saying is that its OK to let market forces happen and to see how the policies they put in place will work out.  All too often governments are quick to react to any negative news regarding their economic situation and are always trying to “tinker’ with policy, rates, statements, intervention, etc.

    I’m not certain where they dig up some of these people charged with setting policy, but its almost as if they have completely forgotten that economies move in cycles.  What goes up, must come down.  Basic laws of gravity.   The fable of the Ant and the Grasshopper.  I could go on and on.

    So kudos to Andrew Sentance, BOE policy maker for keeping it real.  While the UK is not yet back on firm ground economically, the “wait and see” approach is better than the overkill that we see here in the US.

    So let’s take a quick look at a chart of the British pound vs. the US dollar (GBP/USD): (click chart to enlarge)

    gbpusd.JPG

    As you can see from the chart, the pound has been up for the last four days in a row for the first time since last November since we’ve seen dollar strength in December.  1.59 is a good support level.  As this pair has broken through the 38.2% fibo retracement level, it looks like the next stop could be 1.636 at the 50% retracement level.  This could happen sooner than later as the US CPI numbers come out on Friday.  If this figure comes in lower than expected, then that could send this pair higher on dollar weakness.   So I expect we will be at the 1.64 level in short time.

    If we should breach that 50% fibo level, then I would move my stop up to the 23.6% fibo level at 1.612 for those who are long this pair.  While it is important to find trades that look like they are at the start of a trend or in a trend, it is equally important to know how to manage trades and place stops to limit losses.

    Happy Trading to all!

    Do you know how to manage your risk?  If not, be sure to check out our currency trading courses! Losses in trading are unavoidable, but knowing how to limit them based on technical factors is the difference between the amateur and professional trader.

    Do you want to follow this trade in a free, real-time practice account?  Click here to get started!


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    An RSI trick to get you more signals when the traditional settings just won’t do it!

    By Sean Hyman | July 3, 2009

    Many times, in stronger trends…the traditional RSI setting just won’t cut it (14 periods). It won’t even come close to the overbought/oversold levels of 30/70.

    [B]However, if you tweak your RSI settings to where they are set to 9 periods…then you will find that the RSI gets wider swings which will trigger more RSI signals at or very close to the 30/70 levels when the 14 period didn’t even come close.[/B]

    See my chart and you’ll see what I mean. Copy/Paste this link into a new browser and you’ll be able to see the chart. http://www.forextradingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/rsi-14-9.JPG

    [B]Note:[/B] In downtrends, it’s best to ONLY take sell signals for your entries. In an uptrend, it’s best to ONLY take buy signals for your entry signals.

    I’ve circled many of the signals below that triggered on the 9 period RSI that didn’t trigger on the 14 period RSI setting. This would allow for a lot more potential trading opportunities on this chart with that one small “tweak”.

    Try it out, mainly when your 14 period RSI isn’t generating enough signals often enough. See if you like it.

     

    Sean Hyman


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