Volatility Rules!
By Mike Conlon | July 8, 2010
Yesterday, the markets started off in risk-taking mode and that quickly reversed to post huge gains as the market flipped to risk-taking. As I mentioned yesterday, there was no real reason to induce risk-aversion as the there was no news driving fear. That proved to be prescient. This goes to show how the 24-hour nature of the currency market can provide opportunities as different markets gauge risk.
Overnight, the BOE left rates unchanged and did not expand its asset purchase program reflecting a view that their economy may be stabilizing.
The ECB also left rates unchanged, but did begin its own asset purchase program to try to help ease pressure on its banking system.
In Australia, employment figures came in much better than expected showing signs that the economy is not slowing down and bringing back the chance that the RBA could move on rates again this year.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): Overnight, the Australian unemployment rate fell to 5.1% as the economy added 46K jobs vs. an expectation of 15K. This has sent the Aussie higher and has encouraged risk-taking, as the market is increasing its bet that the RBA may have to resume interest rate hikes. The fear of a potential Chinese slowdown had left the market betting that the RBA was finished for the year.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher trading along with the Aussie as risk-taking is continuing from yesterday’s gains.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher on risk-taking ahead of tomorrow’s employment report in Canada. Oil is catching a bid and is higher as the demand for risk assets has increased.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning keeping in line with risk-taking. The ECB left rates unchanged at 1%, and showed that it is willing to buy government debt to shore up the banking system. However, there is a sense that the ECB may need to expand those purchases going forward. German industrial production figures came in much better than expected, providing a bright spot to economic health.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is trading lower against all but the Yen, as the BOE left rates unchanged at .5% which the market had been expected. They also left their asset purchase program unchanged, and there may be slight disappointment that it hasn’t expanded. In addition, industrial and manufacturing production figures came in slightly lower and home prices were also lower, showing signs that inflation may be shrinking as the BOE had hoped.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower against all but the Pound and Yen, as initial jobless claims figures came in slightly better than expected. Initial claims were 454K vs. and expectation of 460K, which may be showing that the US is losing jobs at a slower pace.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is lower across the board as risk-taking is continuing from yesterday. In addition, Japan’s current account balance decreased revealing that domestic demand may be picking up. This is seen as positive as it could help fight the deflation they have been experiencing.
As you can tell by now, there is A LOT of volatility in the market and frankly, I couldn’t be happier. Volatility provides opportunities for traders to profit from changes in sentiment worldwide.
Right now this is most definitely a trader’s market, as the short-term movement is out-pacing longer term position-taking. There is still fear in the marketplace and many hurdles to get over to return to global economic stability. I don’t know where the market will be in 6 months from now; let alone 2 days from now!
What I do know is that there will be ample opportunities for me to make money in the forex market as different news events drive sentiment between risk-taking and risk-aversion. My stocks may be flat, and bonds paying no interest, but there are always ways to profit from forex!
Isn’t it time you got involved to find out for yourself why the forex market is the fastest growing financial market in the world?
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, BOE, cad, canada, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, ECB, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fear, financial, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lot, lower, make money, market, Mike Conlon, money, movement, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, RSI, sentiment, short, spot, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, unemployment, USD, Yen
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Chinese Slowdown To Derail Recovery?
By Mike Conlon | July 1, 2010
Overnight, manufacturing growth slowed in China more than expected as the Chinese look to curtail inflation and their housing market. While the market views this as negative, China has been expanding at a break-neck pace and my opinion that slower, more sustainable growth should be welcome.
However, this spotlights the reduction in world demand as economies pare back to combat deficits and economic uncertainty and lack of confidence is causing consumers to reduce consumption.
In the UK, industrial production figures show a slight drop from the previous month, however in Japan, the Tankan manufacturing confidence figures fell less than expected.
Retail sales figures were lower in both Australia and Germany, though German manufacturing numbers were in line with expectations.
In the Euro zone, a successful bond auction from Spain countered yesterday’s news that Moody’s ratings agency was putting Spain’s AAA credit rating under review.
And lastly, in the US, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, showing 472K vs. an expectation of 460K. This does not bode well for tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report, though it could be setting us up for a surprise to the upside.
So this morning we are seeing US dollar weakness, and Euro and Yen strength.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower this morning as retail sales figures and building permits declined giving investors’ reason to believe that Australia may be finished with rate hikes for the rest of the year.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower this morning as the global slowdown and the news out of China is putting pressure on the currency.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower as oil is down, but it is trading higher vs. the Dollar. Yesterday’s GDP figures caused selling in the Loonie and today Dollar weakness is paring some of those losses.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher across the board as a successful bond auction in Spain is giving the market confidence that the banking situation may not be as bad as expected. In about three weeks’ time, the results of the bank stress tests will be in and that will show the true health of Euro zone banks.
Pound (GBP): The pound is mixed this morning, trading back over 1.50 vs. USD despite the fact that manufacturing figures came in slightly lower than last month but in line with expectations. At this point, there is more confidence in the measures the UK is taking with regard to its finances than what is happening in the US, and this is reflected in recent Pound strength vs. the Dollar.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower across the board as jobless claims came in higher than expected showing that the employment picture is not getting better. In addition, uncertainty over the financial regulation bill is causing trepidation, but overall the economy is still moving forward despite the employment picture. According to Alan Greenspan, our former Fed chief, this is a “normal slowdown” within the greater context of recovery.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is showing strength this morning though giving back some earlier gains. The Nikkei was down 2% last night, providing the Yen with a bid. The Chinese slowdown as caused the un-wind of carry trades, and the Yen is trading at a 6-month high vs. the Dollar.
As I mentioned yesterday, the only thing that matters here in the US is jobs. The employment picture is not improving and tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls report had better be decent or we could see a sell-off going into the long 4th of July holiday weekend.
I hate to continue to harp on policy here in the US, but there is a distinct divide in the economy. To put it bluntly, you have those that receive government hand-outs and those that eventually pay for it. One group is productive, the other isn’t.
Congressional plans to extend unemployment benefits are one such problem. While I feel badly for those unable to find work, at some point you have to lower your expectations and regroup. Because unemployment benefits are essentially equal to minimum wage, there is a disincentive to get off of the couch and work.
In addition, the financial regulation bill (which in my opinion is absolutely needed), has missed the mark. Two major problems that caused the financial mess have gone largely untouched (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Instead we’re going to get a bunch of rules and a business climate that is deemed unfriendly to business, which will help perpetuate the cycle of unemployment. Add future tax hikes to the mix and you can see where this is going. When it comes time for investors to decide where to invest their money, are they going to choose countries that are making an effort to return to fiscal responsibility, or the country with a blatant disregard for it?
I know what I would do. Hopefully, you do too!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, carr, carry trade, China, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fed, financial, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, holiday, housing market, Il, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, mie, Mike Conlon, money, news, nzd, oil, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, rate, retail sales, setting, spot, ssi, time, trade, trades, unemployment, USD, Yen
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Who’s Next?
By Mike Conlon | June 16, 2010
Greece Forgotten, Spain Next?
You knew it had to be too good to be true. The Euro had been on a multi-day climb higher and had shaken off news of the Greek credit downgrade. So the mood yesterday was that all is well and that somehow this Euro zone debt crisis was magically resolved.
Not so fast, folks! Rumors are floating around that Spain may be the next domino to fall into crisis mode, as denials of an emergency credit line sent the Euro lower. Meanwhile, inflation in the Euro zone was higher, but in-line with expectations.
Contributing to risk in the market is news that housing starts here in the US came in way lower than expected and building permits declined to a one-year low. In addition, PPI figures showed a decline in a sign that deflation may be a bigger worry than inflation.
In the UK, a decline in jobless claims was a positive.
So this morning starts out in risk-aversion mode, with Yen and Dollar strength, and commodity currency weakness.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower on risk-aversion as it is giving back some recent gains. The Westpac index of leading economic indicators fell to its weakest pace in nearly 10 months after building starts slowed more than expected. This is indicative of a slowing pace of growth in Australia, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Kiwi (NZD): I moving the Kiwi back to the second position in my “risk ladder” as an improved outlook for the economy and potential rate hikes make the Kiwi a more desirable destination than the Loonie. Consumer confidence in NZ increased as a decline in the jobless rate boosted optimism. This could induce greater consumer spending which has been a weak spot for the economy.
Loonie (CAD): Oil is lower this morning taking the Loonie with it as risk-aversion is prevalent to start the day. There is a report out that Russia could be looking to buy Loonies in order to diversify away from the Euro, and the swaps market is indicating an increasing bet that Canada will continue to raise interest rates.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed this morning, trading higher against the commodity currencies but lower against the rest in a classic pattern of risk-aversion. Much of the fear in the market is coming from the Euro zone, as rumors that Spain is in trouble have been lingering. Consumer prices came in as expected, showing that inflation rose 1.6%, well within the Euro zone target range of 2%.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is also falling in line on the risk hierarchy and showing mixed results today. Consumer confidence figures came in lower than expected, but so did jobless claims providing a silver lining that the jobs picture may be improving in the UK.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is higher on risk aversion this morning, but may give back some of those gains as its own weakness is factored into the market. Housing starts fell 10% as the government homebuyer tax credit expires and building permits which are a sign of the future declined as well. Meanwhile, PPI figures showed a decline, but not as much as expectations. The saving grace today for the stock market may be the industrial production figures which rose 1.2% vs. an expectation of .9%. This is causing a pullback in Dollar gains, and may be the catalyst needed to flip from risk-aversion to risk-appetite. Stay tuned.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is showing the most strength today as risk-aversion is causing an un-wind of carry trades.
The market started out in risk aversion mode, but appears to be giving back as some of the fear in the market abates. As of right now, there is no news from Spain but many will tell you that where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
News here in the US was mixed, and it will be interesting to see if good manufacturing numbers can offset bad housing start numbers. The stock market is lower at this point but investors have not been discouraged as of late. And while oil prices are lower this morning, yesterday they reached just under $77 which is a recent high.
I would not be surprised to see a reversal today, as US market participants shake off the Spain rumor and continue to push prices higher. The decline in building permits should not have come as a surprise, as the removal of housing stimulus was bound to have negative effects.
So take your clues from stocks today, and trade what you see and not what you think you know!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Risk Appetite Returns!
By Mike Conlon | February 16, 2010
The markets are back to “normal” after some being closed for various holidays. Risk appetite is the play today, as the Euro is rebounding against the dollar on thoughts that the Euro may have slid “too far, too fast”. Also, news out of Australia from the Reserve Bank minutes hinted that further rate hikes were in order should the Australian economy extend its recovery.
Also to note is that commodity prices are higher as which is consistent with an increase in risk appetite.
On to the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on new from the RBA minutes. Analyst expectations are for the Aussie to gain to .91 vs. USD by the end of March. Should the economy continue to expand, then further rate hikes could be in order. The current benchmark rate is at 3.75%, making the Aussie a popular destination for carry trades.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is moving in tandem with its South Pacific partner the Aussie. While growth has not been as robust in New Zealand, the Kiwi will also benefit from increased commodity prices and a higher benchmark interest rate as well. That rate is currently 2.5%.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is trading higher this morning on the risk trade as well as the fact that oil is back over $75. Canada is in the spotlight right now as host of the 2010 winter Olympics as sometimes they get lost in the shuffle in the risk trade hierarchy. The Loonie is up to 1.043 vs. USD this morning, its highest level this month.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher against all but the commodity currencies, paring back some of its losses from the previous week. There is tough talk coming from the EU finance ministers regarding Greece, as news has surfaced that Greece may have used derivatives to “fudge the numbers” in order to gain entry to the EU. The fact that Goldman Sachs was involved should come as a shock to no one. Also contributing to the Euro gains this morning is the reading from the German Sentiment Index this morning which was lower than previously reported, but ahead of analyst expectations which net-net is positive for the Euro.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower this morning across the board as consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year earlier. A deviation of more than 1% from the target rate of inflation (2%) requires a letter from BOE Governor King as to how he intends to get back to the goal rate. Inflation volatility is to be expected, and this reading was not a surprise to analysts. This could put more Quantitative Easing back on the table for the UK, which would be Pound negative.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is down this morning as risk-taking is the flavor of the day and stock futures and commodities are higher. The dollar is down 1% vs. the Kiwi and Aussie.
Yen (JPY): As is expected on a risk-taking day, the Yen is down against all but the Pound as the threat of deflation keeps rate hikes off of the table and provides the fuel for carry trades in Aussie and Kiwi despite the good GDP numbers from yesterday.
In overnight markets, the Nikkei closed higher but the Hang Seng closed lower. European markets are higher as are US stock market futures. Oil is back over $75.25 (+1.5%) and gold is up to around 1115 (+1.38%).
As you can see, there is always something happening in the currency market that can influence sentiment and thus market direction. Following the news is extremely important in understanding how market participants view world events.
Do you want to be a market participant? Get started today!
To learn about how world events can affect all markets, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
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End of the Year Blowout Sale!
By Mike Conlon | December 28, 2009
END OF THE YEAR BLOWOUT SALE! OVER 55% OFF!
As we come to the end of 2009, now is the time to look back and reflect upon this past year and to think about making changes going forward. 2009 was a “roller coaster” of a year for investors and many were left wondering what to do when the markets were collapsing and then missed the rally back.
However, one group of investors was able to navigate the treacherous waters of 2009 with relative ease and was able to turn market panic into profits! You may be asking yourself where these investors found these opportunities…..
In the Currency Market!
MAKE YOUR #1 NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTION TO GET EDUCATED!
Did you know that the currency market is the largest financial market in the world with over $3 trillion traded every day and is 30 times larger than the daily trading volume of NYSE and NASDAQ put together?
Did you know that trading currencies has become the hottest trend amongst retail investors with more than 150,000 new accounts opened each month?
We want to help savvy investors who are looking for sound trading opportunities by offering them education, tools and resources to capitalize on this lucrative market.
We realize that many of our subscribers are novices to the currency market and that is why we are offering our subscribers from now until the end of 2009 our most complete and thorough currency trading program — ALL 3 COURSES — at over 55% off the regular price!
The FXEDU currency trading course bundle, valued at $1397, can now be yours for only $625!
That’s over 55% off the retail price!
Our courses will teach you:
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You will have over 6 months to complete the courses and will have 24-hour/day access to our instructors and course materials for one full year to continue your training throughout the year!
Don’t repeat the past mistakes of 2009 this year! Make this year’s resolution one you will remember for the rest of your life!
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Tags: account, charts, comments, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dow, financial, fx, fxedu, Il, instructor, invest, pair, pairs, rate, spot, Swiss, time, trade, trend, volume
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GBP Still Strong!
By Mike Conlon | October 16, 2009
The British pound is still strong today, showing a little bit of follow through from yesterdays gains. Yesterday I called out a trade in GBP/AUD as a low risk opportunity based on some technical factors, despite the fact that the trade was “counter-trend”. Let’s see how its doing:
(click charts to enlarge)
As you can see, this trade is up about 169 pips from yesterdays entry price (1.7828-1.7659=169 pips). While you’re not going to be able to retire just yet LOL, this high probabilty set-up is showing some initial gains and looks promising going forward. To give you an idea of what this means, with just one lot, you would have made $169 if you were in this trade.
And the cost to get into this trade? Just $50 in margin. So in theory, you put up $50 to make $169. That’s pretty good coin! Now imagine what happens when you use the multiplier effect of leverage!
While its never a good idea to over-leverage your account, taking high probability trade set-ups can be extremely profitable if you know what you’re doing!
To learn about how to spot trade set-ups such as these, check out our currency trading courses here.
Want to test my calls in real time with a practice account of your own? Get started here.
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See What I Mean?
By Mike Conlon | September 23, 2009
It looks like the FED did as was expected and the market was kind enough to follow suit, by selling the dollar and buying up other currencies. But see what I mean about the volatility! Take a look at this 5-minute chart of EUR/USD. (click chart to enlarge) Over 60 pips in less than a few minutes!
Hopefully readers you took my advice and sold USD bought other currencies, or steered clear of the mayhem all together!
Want to learn how to spot forex trading opportunities based on the fundamentals? Click Here.
Want to get set up with a real-time practice forex trading account? Click Here.
Tags: account, blog, currenc, currencies, currency, dollar, EUR, fed, forex, forex trading, forextrading, fundamental, fx, fxedu, Il, market, Mike Conlon, minutes, mywealth, pip, pips, practice, spot, time, USD
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GBP/USD Short Looking Good!
By Mike Conlon | August 26, 2009
Just wanted to post a quick update on this trade that triggered yesterday. We actually closed out a portion at 1.6175, for a 175 pip gain. This pair is the biggest loser of the day so far (-1.04%), so it appears that other traders may have recognized the H&S pattern as well. The reason we closed a portion was because of the doji that occurred on the 5-minute chart, and the stochastic cross that occurred as well. See chart (click to enlarge)
While this trade started out as a pattern on the daily chart, we chose to drop down to the 5-minute chart to manage the trade as our first profit target was hit. Our trailing stop for the rest of the position is now at 1.6275, which is just above the most recent area of resistance, and also represents a 75 pip gain. So basically this is now a risk free trade!
To learn how you can spot trades such as this one, check out our inexpensive currency course!
To get started with a live, free practice account, click here.
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Markets become “weighed down” after today’s Employment report!
By Sean Hyman | July 2, 2009
Unemployment in the U.S. now stands at 9.5%. Job losses came in at -467,000 vs. -360k expected. Oil slumped to $67 down recently from $70-$73. The Dow is down 160 points. Most all foreign currencies that I see are down on the day as the defensive plays of the dollar and yen both thrive upon the dour NFP report. So any bright spots out there? Yes, the revision on last month’s NFP came in better than expected by a small margin. Also, the ECB kept rates unchanged rather than lowering rates in the Euro Zone. So those are basically the only two “rays of light” out there this morning so far.
Tags: currenc, currencies, dollar, dow, ECB, EUR, Euro, forex, FXEDU, Hyman, job losses, lower, mywealth, nfp, oil, rate, Sean, Sean Hyman, spot, U.S., unemployment, Yen
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How to Spot a Longer-Term Trend!
By Sean Hyman | June 30, 2009
When I’m teaching my courses each day, I get this question quite often. So I thought I’d share it here with you too! How in the world do you know how to spot the long term trend? Well it’s really simple.
First, you should pull up a daily chart that goes back in time at least a year (even more time is even better). Then place a 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the chart. That’s the line that I’ve got the arrows pointing to on the chart below. The SMA can be found under the “Studies” or Indicators” section of most any charting package.
Let the 200 Day SMA be Your Guide
One of the most widely used indicators in the world is the 200 SMA. I even catch purely fundamental traders putting it on their charts. Why? Because everyone needs to be able to tell which way the long term trend is headed, even pure fundamentalists.
I’ve charted the EUR/USD pair on the daily chart going back several years in time.
The 200 SMA Smoothes out the Trend and Points the Way to Trade
Towards the left of the chart we can see that the “average” price moves upward over time. So while the price may be jagged and spiky at times, they moving average smoothes all of this out so that we can tell if the price is headed up overall or downward overall. To the left of the chart, the price continues to climb higher, so it’s in an uptrend at that point. However, on the latter part of the chart (right side), then trend turns downward and the longer term trend is then downward. You want to define the trend’s direction and trade with it because that’s where the higher probability trades lie. Low probability trades would be shorting an uptrend or buying a pair in a downtrend. You will notice that the price tends to trade at or above the 200 SMA in an uptrend and in a downtrend the price dips below the 200 SMA and holds at or below it.
How to know when a New Longer-Term Trend is likely Beginning!
Therefore, we’re alerted to a “new long term trend” emerging when the price makes this shift. We can see that in August of 2008 when the price fell below the 200 SMA. At that point, the long term uptrend ceased and the “new” downtrend emerged. Then in May of 2009, the uptrend re-emerged for the EUR/USD. As long as the pair can hold above this 200 SMA, then it’s still in its longer term uptrend. Once the pair drops back below the SMA and holds below it, we know that the uptrend has likely ended. So let the 200 Daily SMA on the daily chart be your guide as to whether you should be looking for “long” (buying) entry opportunities or whether you should be looking for “shorting” (selling) opportunities for your entries into a trend. Using this as your guide will enhance your trading performance. No matter how much you get tempted…don’t trade against this trend, but stick with it. Oh sure, you can take profits if you wish, once it trades way away from the 200 SMA…just don’t counter trend trade against it. Be patient and wait for a re-entry back into the trend once the pair retraces back towards its 200 SMA once again!
Click on the chart to enlarge it. 
Tags: alert, blog, charts, course, dow, downtrend, EUR, forex, forextrading, fundamental, Hyman, pair, Sean, Sean Hyman, short, simple, spot, teach, time, trade, trader, trades, uptrend, USD
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