Jobs Disappoint!
By Mike Conlon | June 4, 2010
US Non-Farm Payrolls came in at a less than expected 431K vs. an expectation of 520K. While this does reflect job growth from last month’s gain of 220K, the number is disappointing as census workers were included in this reading. This shows that job growth in the private sector is not happening as quickly as the market would like to see and offers proof that we may be in a “jobless recovery”.
In addition, news out of the Euro zone is that Hungary may need a bailout as default may be imminent. This could set off a chain reaction which causes the bailout facility to be accessed by other countries with similar problems.
What this adds up to is major risk aversion, as traders will not want to go into the weekend long risk assets in the event of further complications in the Euro zone. US stock market futures are down significantly, as is oil, trading back to 72.5.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower this morning on risk aversion coming from the Euro zone. However, sales of gold to Europe have increased dramatically as the Euro zone debt crisis induced a flight to safe-haven assets.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also lower on risk-aversion, despite a better than expected employment report. Data showed an addition of 25K jobs vs. an expectation of a 15K gain. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.1%.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower as well for the same reasons as the Aussie.
Euro (EUR): Well it was just a matter of time before the debt crisis reared its ugly head again. To think that the problems plaguing the Euro zone were solved with the announcement of the bailout facility would have been naïve. Hungary’s announcement that it is in a “grave situation” as a result of the previous governments lies and manipulated figures which gave a false picture of its economy. Euro zone GDP figures came in as expected, but this reading from the previous quarter may not paint a proper picture of the state of overall Euro zone economic health.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed; trading higher against risk currencies but lower vs. Dollar and Yen. The Halifax report showed that home prices fell for a second straight month; however this report appears to be conflicting with other reports on home prices. The takeaway here is that housing prices are likely to remain flat.
Dollar (USD): Well what can I say about this employment number that’s positive? Truthfully, not much. The majority of job gains reported in this month’s NFP were temporary jobs created by the government in the form of census workers. I suppose I am doing my part to “help” the economy by hiding from these people, thereby attempting to offset spending as population is under-reported giving the government one less reason to spend my hard-earned tax dollars. In addition, the longer it takes to track me down, the longer one of these workers may be employed! It’s a win-win for everybody. But seriously, I try not to rail on politics but this is a disaster on so many levels. Massive deficits, tax hikes coming down the pike, and the private sector unwilling to create jobs out of FEAR that their taxes will be going up to pay for massive entitlement plans are going to be the economic death of this great nation. But the Dollar is higher on risk-aversion, so that means that the masses can be placated by still being able to afford cheap foreign stuff, while government fat cats finance new beach houses (yes you Al Gore) paid for by my yet to be born grand-children. A sad day for Amerika.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is higher on risk aversion and the unwinding of carry trades.
When bad economic policies are put in place by cowardly government figures, bad things will happen. The government has been the largest creator of jobs for some time, and most of these are unproductive, and do not contribute to economic growth. I have nothing against government workers, and I believe everyone who wants a job should have one.
But the insidious transfer of wealth from the private sector to public sector weakens our economic strength. I’m tired of hearing about the “failed economic policies” of the past and the need for “change”.
These policies are NOT failed; they were under-regulated. The same people trumpeting this mantra are also some of the same people responsible for those policies. Excessively low interest rates and the housing bubble are the root cause of our economic problems, not free market principles.
The sooner people start to wake up and understand this, the sooner we’ll be able to get out of this mess. Of course you have to pull them away from their cheap plasma TV to care for more than half a minute.
Nevertheless, the forex market trades on and there are tremendous gains to be made by those brave enough to understand what is going on and how to profit from it.
Are you one of those people? If not, become one!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Euro Declines, Canada Hikes!
By Mike Conlon | June 1, 2010
Now that the debt crisis in the Euro zone appears to have stabilized, the market now turns its attention to EU economic fundamentals. The outlook for the Euro is negative, as governments adopting austerity plans means that GDP growth will like stall and contract. The bounce we saw last week in the Euro was the result of short-covering as the Euro fell too far, too fast. In addition to the weakening fundamental data, political uncertainty in Germany has risen as its President unexpectedly quit. The Euro made new lows against the dollar at 1.211 in the overnight session.
Over the long weekend, news out of Australia showed that the economy there may be slowing and the RBA declined to further tighten interest rates by holding the rate steady.
In an opposite move, Canadian GDP came in better than expected yesterday the Bank of Canada’s rate decision is due out any minute.
The British pound is higher as manufacturing growth remained at 15 year highs, and housing prices rebounded showing signs of economic growth.
In addition, an apparent “fat-finger” error in the Nikkei futures market sent the index lower, though it has rebounded off of erroneous lows. World stock markets are lower, as are the US equity futures. Oil is down as well, though gold is higher as it is viewed as a store of wealth.
The market is in risk-aversion mode, though the open of the US exchanges after the long weekend could change that sentiment.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower as the RBA declined to hike interest rates, citing Euro zone uncertainty and a potential economic slowdown in China as threats to economic growth. In addition, building permits were down some 15%, but retail sales came in much better than expected. This shows that investors are treading cautiously down under, as housing prices may be a bit over-blown. So consumers are directing their dollars to smaller ticket items, preferring to hold off on larger investments.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower on risk-aversion and lower oil prices, as the market waits for the BOC rate decision to be announced. Speculation has the BOC raising rates .25% to .5%, after yesterday’s GDP report showed a gain of 6.1% vs. an expectation of 5.9%. As Canada’s largest trading is the US (the only country NOT enacting austerity measures to combat excessive debt), the Canadian economy appears to be ready to out-perform. *Edit: Rates were increased as expected to .5%, yet the Loonie is lower as the market may have been expecting more.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower on risk aversion, and a slowing European and Chinese economy could stall growth in the region. Also, New Zealand’s own austerity measures could contribute to economic weakness if they attempt to reign in their public debt. Business confidence figures were lower as well.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower as well, after the German President Koehler unexpectedly quit, further weakening Chancellor Merkel’s political alliance. Retail sales in Germany were lower, and unemployment came in lower than expected, showing signs that a weaker Euro will be good for German exports. However, unemployment in the EU overall was higher, highlighting the disparity between Germany and the rest of the EU. Meanwhile, French PPI came in higher than expected. It seems as though EU residents are preparing for the worst, and scaling back as negative economic data has a “chicken and egg” effect in the region. The long-term trend of the Euro is still down, and while a lower Euro will help exports and tourism to bring cash to the region, it is going to get worse before it gets better. Now if the banks can just hang on.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher across the board, as house prices had their largest annual increase in nearly 3 years. In addition, UK PMI figures showed that manufacturing expanded at its highest level in over 15 years, and money flows are leaving the Euro to invest in the Pound as the economic outlook is far better in the UK which could mean a normalization of monetary policy later in the year.
Dollar (USD): The US dollar is bid vs. the commodity currencies as risk aversion is the theme to start the trading week in the US after the long holiday weekend. Stock futures are off of their lows, and we could see a rebound today if the ISM manufacturing figures come in better than expected. This has become a familiar “pattern”, as fear in the Euro zone and Asia start the session in risk-aversion mode, which flips to risk-taking if all appears well here in the US.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is also higher on risk themes, and also received a bid as a “fat finger” mistake in the Nikkei futures markets sent the index lower. The Yen trades somewhat inversely to the Nikkei, so it started off higher. Regional instability from a potential Korean conflict could cause volatility in the Yen if it escalates.
Long weekends in the US markets can sometimes have disastrous results as trading does not cease in other areas of the world. Risk and fear can cause markets to react violently, as correlations between the markets move back toward their natural order.
This weekend, the market was fairly lucky in that while there was some negative news, there was nothing earth-shattering that would cause a panic.
In the forex market, we are now seeing shifts in the balance of power, as some nations strengthen while others weaken. If the Euro debt crisis can be contained, then expect traders to revert back to the fundamentals as we enter the summer trading season.
While the summer session is normally slower, I’m not certain that will be the case this year. With the markets on high alert and fear still rampant in the market, expect volatility to remain high.
And that’s just what we as traders want!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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Dumb Markets!
By Mike Conlon | May 11, 2010
Yesterday we saw the markets come back with a vengeance as both stocks and risk assets traded higher. The obvious driver of these moves was the EU bailout, but as I mentioned yesterday, the bailouts are going to be negative for the Euro in the long-term. It didn’t take the markets long to realize this, as the Euro is lower and taking other markets with it.
Part of the problem we are seeing is that because the PIIGS countries are going to have to adopt austerity measures, this by nature is going to stunt growth while the debt situations get under control. However, when the US was facing economic crisis, the EU only had to lower interest rates and did not engage in quantitative easing to stabilize its economy. Now granted, they are facing problems today, but I think that stability is more important than growth at this point.
Nevertheless, the market still relies on some of the correlations that have held up over the past couple of years, and my guess is that is going to change. While the Euro is known as the “anti-dollar”, it tends to trade with risk assets. If we use the premise that the Euro is going to go lower based on the dilutive actions taken to administer the bailout, then it likely follows that we’re going to see some Dollar strength.
However, we still are seeing good growth stories around the globe. Sure a weaker Euro will decrease demand for imported goods to the EU, but it will also be much better for Euro exports as now their goods are cheaper around the globe.
So pay attention to how the other markets react to a declining Euro. Right now the markets seem to be playing by the old rules. It may be a while before the market catches on to the new paradigm. So for now trade what you see and not what you think it will be!
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower this morning as fears that a European economic contraction may weigh heavily on global recovery. However, the economic story is still intact and a global slowdown could halt inflation down under.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is holding up fairly well despite the risk aversion in the market as investors are betting on a rate hike next month. Swap rates are higher as homeowners are attempting to lock in fixed-rate mortgages in anticipation.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower as risk aversion in the market is causing demand to weaken. The target date for a rate hike is still mid-year, but that could be pushed out further if inflation subsists due to a lack of Euro or Chinese demand.
Euro (EUR): So stocks are lower in Europe and the US futures are set to open lower as well as there is concern that the bailout plan will not be big enough to halt the debt problems. My take is that this bailout should be sufficient, as spending gets slashed and budgets get reduced throughout the region. As long as this backstop is in place, the troubled nations will receive aid initially and will be able to go out into the markets down the road once more and more confidence is established. While the crisis everyone speaks about is directly related to excessive debt, the real crisis in the EU is one of investor confidence. If this process can be managed skillfully, the confidence will come back. In the meantime, I am expecting the Euro to decline. And watch the flows into gold as an asset class as gold not only acts as a hedge against inflation, but also as a store of wealth. Gold is higher to $1210.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher this morning as industrial production figures came in much better than expected. The Pound was initially lower on risk aversion and due to a report that the Lib Democrats in Parliament were in talks to form a coalition government with the Labour party even though the Conservatives won the majority though not by a large enough margin to dominate Parliament.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar started the morning higher on risk aversion but is giving back some ground as the stock market gets set to open. Stock futures are off their lows of the morning and I could see this as a “turn-around” day as the economic story is improving in the US.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is giving back gains as the market is seemingly moving away from risk aversion. Japanese stocks were lower overnight, as fears of a Chinese slowdown may affect earnings going forward.
In my opinion, the bailouts in Europe should be viewed as a good thing and not bad. A lower Euro will not only help manufacturing countries such as Germany and France as their exports will be cheaper, but it will also help the PIIGS countries as tourism will increase.
I live here in the NYC, and for the last couple of years you couldn’t walk down the street without bumping into a European here on a shopping excursion. Even with the price of the airfare, it was still cheaper for them to shop here than at home.
Conversely, the last time I was in Europe, I felt like a pauper and was astounded at some of the dinner bills I racked up. Now, my wife and I are planning our next trips. Things will get worse in the EU before they get better, but in the long run a lower Euro will benefit them greatly.
We all have to make sacrifices in the grand scheme of things, and once the Greeks (and those who acted irresponsibly) realize how they can benefit, the quicker they can return to normalcy.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
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RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged!
By Mike Conlon | February 2, 2010
So this morning is a risk-aversion day in the currency markets, however equity futures in the US are up slightly this morning, as are gold and oil. At some point today, I expect some sort of mean reversion.
Here’s a look at the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): As mentioned, the Aussie is down this morning as the RBA left rates unchanged. There was also a comment made about sovereign debt concerns that is also weighing on the Aussie. It’s currently the biggest loser on the morning, down 1% vs. the US dollar and 1.3% vs. the Japanese yen.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is down this morning trading in sympathy with the Aussie, and there was also news that wages in New Zealand rose at their slowest pace in 9 years. This demonstrates that the labor market is weak and is a sign that rate hikes may be off the table for some time.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is down this morning as a result of risk-aversion, though it has been trading higher recently as oil prices have been moving higher. There’s no real market making news on the Loonie until the end of this week when they report the unemployment change on Friday, so look to oil prices to give clues about where the Loonie may go.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is up slightly this morning as it’s taking a much needed break from the pounding it’s been taking. By now you are familiar with all of the negative news from the region regarding the PIIGS countries, so today, no news is good news. The trend though is still clearly down.
Pound (GBP): The pound is lower this morning as market sentiment over the health of the UK economy is still negative. The pound tested 1.59 vs. the US dollar and is near a three-month low.
Dollar (USD): US home sales figures come out at 10AM EST and could serve as a barometer to the health of the economic recovery in the US. Coming on the heels of the biggest federal budget EVER proposed, there are increased worries that the administration’s plans, “just don’t add up” and that proposed tax hikes on businesses and the wealthy will further stall jobs growth.
Yen (JPY): The yen is higher this morning as the global risk-aversion theme is taking place. This may leave the BOJ in a conundrum as their attempts to weaken the yen to improve exports could be undermined by global risk aversion themes. Stay tuned on this one.
Overnight, Asian equity markets were up and European markets are up as well, though off their highs of the day. US stock futures are slightly higher, though I suspect that this existing home sales data at 10 may be the catalyst for a stock market reversal if they come in worse than expected.
Currently, oil is up almost a full percent to over 75, and gold is trading just higher than 1100 to 1113.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
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Japan Tries to Jaw-bone Yen Lower!
By Mike Conlon | December 2, 2009
Japanese Yen: Intervention Fears Stall Strengthening—For Now!
On the heels of the Bank of Japan’s emergency meeting at the beginning of the week in which policy-makers decided to extend quantitative easing to its credit markets, Japanese officials led by Prime Minister Hatoyama are suggesting various degrees of intervention to keep the yen from strengthening. Or are they?
Taking their cues straight from the Bernanke book of monetary double-talk, Japanese ministers are offering conflicting views about what course of action needs to be taken to slow down the yen, including trying to enlist international help. What they can all agree on is that a strong yen is bad for their exports and hence bad for their economy.
Regardless of the rhetoric and what may or may not happen, yen bulls are heading for the exits. This also coincides with the resumption of the risk-taking trade, as the market has for the time-being dodged any contagion from last week’s news out of Dubai.
So while it appeared that the market was not impressed by the emergency measures, it is taking notice of the three-ring circus that is the Japanese version of jaw-boning. All this in the name of “reducing volatility”.
Let’s take a quick look at a chart of USD/JPY: (click chart to enlarge)
Earlier this week the yen reached 15-year highs at 84.80 vs. the US dollar due to the Dubai news on that huge doji candle. Combined with a stochastic crossover near the 20 level could mean a possible trend-reversal, at least in the near-term. If this pair can stay below 89, then I expect strength to continue. Should it breach 89, then the next stop could be the 90.75 level.
If the yen moves back down to the 85 level, then expect more forceful words from the ministers, and don’t necessarily rule out intervention. What sounded like a good idea back in September could have major implications for the Japanese economy, especially if things don’t improve.
Also to keep an eye on for this pair is what is going on here in the US. The forex market practically blew-off Plosser’s comments that we may need to raise rates here sooner than later to ward off inflation, regardless of recovery status. While there is still much debate about where we are in the inflation/deflation realm, one thing can be certain: maintaining a zero-interest rate policy for a prolonged period of time will not be good for the US economy.
If rates in the US, or even talks thereof, rise, then look for the yen to resume its “natural position” as the currency of choice for the carry trade.
In the meantime, Japanese officials will do all they can to threaten intervention to buy time and slow yen strengthening.
Right back at ya, Bernanke!
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BOE Holds Steady, Pound Rises!
By Mike Conlon | October 8, 2009
The Bank of England held both interest rates and its bond purchase (quantitative easing) program steady yesterday, prompting the pound (GBP) to its highest level against the US dollar (USD) in the last month, showing signs that their recovery may be underway.
There was some fear that the BOE would have to take further action, as Mervyn King had called for greater measures back in August, which was defeated.
With Australia leading the way and raising rates this week, it may be difficult for Bernanke and the Fed to maintain its “overkill” policy of ridiculously low rates and Q.E. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to weaken, down across the board most notably weak against the Aussie ( AUD/USD +1.47%) which comes as no surprise to anyone.
It looks like the USD carry trade is in full effect, as a strong overnight move pushed this pair through .90 level.
Here’s a 3 month chart of the AUD/USD– I’m seeing LOTS of green– (click to enlarge)
I’m starting to get the “feeling” that the Fed is going to act soon. While the economy may be improving ever so slightly, we really need to see that the Fed believes we are recovering as well. A token rate-hike would actually be seen as a sign that the economy is on the mend, which could inspire confidence in all markets. While there may be an initial reaction that is negative, in the long run this would be the best course of action. I just hope the Fed is not too short-sighted to see it.
So from here on out, expect the dollar to weaken unless the Fed does something to halt its decline. It may be coming EXTREMELY soon.
To learn more about how you can protect your wealth from the Fed’s devaluing of our currency, check out our currency trading courses here.
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Text from the FOMC Meeting!
By Sean Hyman | June 24, 2009
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
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Swing Trade Idea produces 100+ pips!
By Sean Hyman | March 31, 2009
In times like this, when the swing trade works out so well, so fast….you may want to take part of your trade off of the table by closing 1/2 of your lots and moving your stop to breakeven. If you’re happy with the 115-125 pip gains thus far, then you could pull the trade off entirely. If you were long EUR/USD, you also collected a few pennies on your dresser to boot.
These pairs continue to rally, but are overbought in the very short term.
Sean Hyman
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For the Rest of Your Investments…
By Sean Hyman | March 27, 2009
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Don’t Forget: Existing Home Sales Come out at 10am EST Today!
By Sean Hyman | March 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales out at 10am EST!
Last time there were 4.49 million homes sold. The expectations for today’s reading is for 4.45 million homes to be sold. See where the numbers come in at on: http://www.forexfactory.com or http://www.dailyfx.com .
This housing number could greatly affect the U.S. dollar.
Also, Tim Geithner is speaking right now too. So be watching for what he says. A lot of times, you can pick up what he’s saying on marketwatch.com under their headlines section: http://www.marketwatch.com/search/default.aspx?mktwd=0&otherd=0&query=1&s0=&i0=5&tab=0&d=954219924.954211799&sd=633733959600000000&ed=633733924200000000&close=&y=83&__EVENTTARGET=SearchButton&__EVENTARGUMENT=&__LASTFOCUS=&ft=0&__VIEWSTATE=&adv=1&subi=5&_ctl84=Enter+Symbol(s)+or+Keyword(s)&SearchType=search&value=U.S+Treasury&mode=Keyword?=RealTime+Headlines&ex=&rpp=50&cs=on&emm=mm&edd=dd&eyy=yyyy
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