« Yen: Good News/Bad News= No News | Home | Risk On, Risk Off! »
Guest Blogger: Liviu Flesar
By Mike Conlon | November 17, 2009
The online forex community is pretty extensive, yet it is sometimes hard to find bloggers with unique perspectives. Well Liviu of Innerfx is one such blogger. As an independent trader based in Europe, he will provide a refreshing point of view on the markets from the other side of the pond.
Below is his weekly forecast, and be sure to return to look for his update. Incidentally this forecast was originally published on Sunday, so apologies for the technical problems getting it posted sooner. Going forward his forecasts will be published when they are written.
So please extend a warm welcome to Liviu, be sure to checkout his website, and come back to read his commentary.
Short term outlook for EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD and EURCHF
EURUSD
Uptrend remains intact as the euro managed to stabilize above 1.4850, recovering some of its losses on Friday, but downside pressure and incertitude are likely to continue if a daily close above 1.4990/00 won’t occur within the coming days – such break confirming that the corrective move to 1.4825/50 has ended, hence bringing the upper territory of 1.5050-1.5100 in focus. As long as the rising trend channel plotted in the daily chart below remains intact, expectations are pointing towards 1.5200/15 as next objective – also the 100% fibonacci extension of the 1.4480-1.5060-1.4625 (ABC) triangulation.
- EURUSD daily 11-15-2009
NZDUSD
Minor resistance into the .7450 is under pressure as the correction to as low as .7080 at the beginning of November is over. A sustained break above .7450 will most likely open the room for prolonged gains towards recent peak at .7630. Bullish momentum of short-term and medium term studies is very strong and more upside price action is favored. In case of pullbacks, support is expected to limit losses around the .7300 handle, keeping the positive sentiment unchanged. In case of extended weakness below .7300, solid bids may emerge into the .7050-.7150 support region formed by the 50% and 61.8% fib ratios of previous 2 months’ upward swing.
- NZDUSD daily chart 11-15-2009
USDCAD
Earlier established downtrend channel is valid since dollar’s rebound above 1.0500 but channel’s lower band (support) is in focus as selling emerged into the former support region around 1.0590 as seen in the chart below. Keep an eye on the 1.0450 bottom as a potential breakdown may open 1.0200 for a re-test within the coming days – potentially forming a double bottom. On the upper side, breaking above 1.0590 would cancel current bearish bias, favoring dollar’s recovery towards 1.0800.
- USDCAD short-term 11-15-2009
EURCHF
i used to watch this cross closely while it has been trading into good ranges of 100-150 points / day. Now it is quite ‘dead’, since a few months ago, averaging 30 points / day – an untradable range for those using ‘normal’ position sizes. On the other hand, I like how stable the CHF is against the euro, as I pay a CHF mortgage. Technically speaking, bias remain neutral and potential dips below 1.5070 may reach a key support around the 1.5000 handle – SNB interventions being likely to occur – protecting the lower region, below the 1.5 mark.
- EURCHF weekly chart 11-15-2009
Have a great week!
noneTopics: What To Look At In The Market |