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I Love it When a Plan Comes Together!
By Mike Conlon | October 27, 2009
Like Hannibal from the A-team, its always a good feeling when your thesis plays out AND you are able to profit from it. Thanks to the Case-Shiller housing price number (home prices increased- woohoo!) the Dow jumped up about 60 points and the dollar sold off a bit just in time to activate some shorts.
I took small short positions in AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD, as well as a long in USD/CAD. Then the consumer confidence number came in at 47.7 vs. and expected 53.1. , and the Dow sold off about 80 points in 10 minutes, thereby giving me gains in all of my currency positions. Exactly as expected.
Unfortunately, the action was just too fast for me to even get my charts posted! Here’s one chart of the GBP/USD short. (click chart to enlarge)
But this also brings on another trading “dilemma”. With consumer confidence shrinking, some might say that this will embolden Bernanke to keep interest rates low, thereby causing money to move out of USD into the stock market, commodities, and other hard assets, as well as higher-yielding currencies.
Thursday’s GDP report is up next, so check back for my analysis going into that number. I will be looking at the charts very closely to see how this GDP situation may be managed.
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