« Here’s one of those Notorious “NFP Reversals” That I Warned of Earlier! | Home | The Pound Gets Punished After U.K. Govt. Takes Huge Stake in Lloyd’s and HSBC Plummets! »
U.S. Dollar Forecast
By Sean Hyman | March 6, 2009
Back in Feb. 18th, I released my U.S. dollar forecast article and You Tube video. Since I’ve cranked this blog back up, I wanted to run it on this blog in order to share those views with my viewers here.
That way you guys could consider these insights when you are doing your own research and analysis in the forex market.
The USD/JPY has already made quite a concerted move as I suspected it would.
Read on to see why I hold those views and what else may be in store for the remainder of 2009.
Also, check out my You Tube video on the subject as well.
Lately, I’ve been asked a lot about where I see the U.S. dollar going in 2009. So let address this for a moment.
Specifically, I think the dollar will gain against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY pair will rise) throughout 2009.
While formerly, the yen and dollar rose as the Dow crashed, you will notice that the yen is backing off quite a bit even as the Dow sits on its lows as of this writing. Yet the dollar still rises as the Dow falls.
Click on the chart below to enlarge it.
Therefore, I think for the dollar/yen pair, the bias will be in the favor of the dollar and against the yen overall throughout 2009 no matter what the stock market does from here.
HOWEVER, when it comes to how the dollar does against most other currencies such as the Euro, Australian dollar, etc. it will very much hinge on how stocks hold up.
If the Dow breaks to fresh lows and holds below them, then it is likely that the dollar will continue its strength against these foreign currencies BUT if the Dow and other U.S. indices halt their slide and head higher overall from here, then I think risk aversion dies down and that will hurt the U.S. dollar and cause foreign currencies to rise up against it once again.
So right now, I’m bullish on the USD/JPY pair and even bullish on gold. However, stocks are on the fence right now. They can’t stay there forever. So we’ll have a break one way or the other, sooner rather than later.
Once we get a decisive breakout, then we have our new found direction on the dollar. Therefore, my focus will remain on being long (buying) the USD/JPY pair until stocks get off the fence and make a distinctive move to either side. Once this happens, then the trend will be in place for the dollar for the remainder of the year minimally.
Get a demo here so you can see what I’m talking about. There you will have access to FREE, REAL TIME quotes and charts so you can get a feel for what I’m speaking about for yourself.
THEN…get an education in this market so you will feel comfortable investing in these currency pairs that have stabilized and even broken higher recently. After all, you need positions in your portfolio that are going up NOW in order to combat a slumping 401k, IRA or stock brokerage account. Time is of the essence. Don’t be paralyzed by fear and do nothing. Take charge of your future. Don’t wait on the government!
Get your online education started today by clicking here.
If you would like to see more of my You Tube videos then just click here and it will pull them up for you.
Tags: account, currencies, currency, currency pairs, demo, dollar, education, EUR, Euro, forex, forex market, forextrading, fx, fxedu, invest, jpy, stocks, U.S., USD, wealth, Yen
Topics: What To Look At In The Market | 2 Comments »
March 7th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Hey Sean
I just came across your blog today and am glad I found it. I am always interested in checking out all the learning tools I can find in Forex trading. Also,I enjoyed your You Tube video. I have to say, you did a really nice job on explaining something that is really tricky, especially during these unprecedented times. I will be checking back on a regular basis.
March 9th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Hey, glad to know you are enjoying it. I thank you for bookmarking my site and for accessing my You Tube videos.
You can see them all by putting in “Sean Hyman” into You Tube’s search field. Thanks….and stay tuned.